2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Last several GFS runs have shown Andres around day 15. Now, it'll be something to watch if it every gets pushed forward.

I don't have access to MJO forecasts, but I know the ECMWF, EPS, and GFS all shows a couple of big CCKW soon, some uncertainty to were though.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS hasn't had anything for 6 runs now. I'm loosing my patience even though it's still May 10.

[cycloneye]

GFS hasn't had anything for 6 runs now. I'm loosing my patience even though it's still May 10.

Why you are losing patience? Season can start slow but be very active as a whole.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS hasn't had anything for 6 runs now. I'm loosing my patience even though it's still May 10.

Why you are losing patience? Season can start slow but be very active as a whole.

Because I'm spoiled. Of course I know that.

Still think the season could be historic, but if nothing forms within the next 3 weeks, I will start to doubt it.

The reason for the lack of system is due to no tropical waves and CCKW's being so far west where there is too much shear.

[Andrew92]

The first storm in 1992 with an EPAC name, Agatha, didn't form until June 1. (not counting Ekeka and Hali, which were CPAC storms, not EPAC, though they were much earlier in the season)

-Andrew92

[Yellow Evan]

The first storm in 1992 with an EPAC name, Agatha, didn't form until June 1. (not counting Ekeka and Hali, which were CPAC storms, not EPAC, though they were much earlier in the season)

-Andrew92

Counting EPAC/CPAC, only one season (1985) has had more than 20 storms and had no systems form in May. And 1985 got it's first storm in very early June.

Then again as I said last year, El Nino years tend to be late activity starters. El Nino years tend to have all of its activity focused on the peak of the season, and methinks weak MJO and more southerly ITCZ shortens the season a little bit. Henceforth, this could explain why true El Nino years are not any more active than some +PDO neutral years. With the recent intensfication of the El Nino, then, this should really come as no surprise in hindsight.

[Yellow Evan]

MJO seems stuck in the WPAC for now, though a few ensembles move it to the EPAC eventually. We'll see.

[Kingarabian]

The EPAC does have a knack for generating systems when you least expect it. Plenty of fire right now, just nothing consolidating.

[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC does have a knack for generating systems when you least expect it. Plenty of fire right now, just nothing consolidating.

We do have CCKW coming very soon over the next few days. Stranger things have happened.

Ever year it seems you get a few surprise system. This year I could see a bunch with the new more conservative models.

[NDG]

The subtropical jet across the central and eastern Pacific needs to lift northward before anything gets going any time soon, IMO.
I give it another week if not 2 weeks.

[Yellow Evan]

The subtropical jet across the central and eastern Pacific needs to lift northward before anything gets going any time soon, IMO.
I give it another week if not 2 weeks.

Seems to have re-entered the region and dramatically increased shear the past couple days and also dropped SST's.

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan,maybe by the end of month we may have activity.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 8m8 minutes ago
Weak MJO + Indian Ocean CCKW + #elnino base state = me watching for TC genesis chances in southwestern EPac week 2.

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan,maybe by the end of month we may have activity.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 8m8 minutes ago
Weak MJO + Indian Ocean CCKW + #elnino base state = me watching for TC genesis chances in southwestern EPac week 2.

We've seen just hints of activity around the 2 week timeframe for quite some time, but the timeframe never gets moved up.

[Yellow Evan]

Season starts tomorrow!

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151131
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.

The list of names for 2015 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Andres ahn-DRASE Marty MAR-tee
Blanca BLAHN-kah Nora NOOR-ruh
Carlos KAR-loess Olaf OH-lahf
Dolores deh-LOOR-ess Patricia puh-TRIH-shuh
Enrique ahn-REE-kay Rick rik
Felicia fa-LEE-sha Sandra SAN-druh
Guillermo gee-YER-mo Terry TAIR-ree
Hilda HILL-duh Vivian VIH-vee-uhn
Ignacio eeg-NAH-see-oh Waldo WAHL-doh
Jimena he-MAY-na Xina ZEE-nah
Kevin KEH-vin York york
Linda LIHN-duh Zelda ZEL-dah

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. The issuance
times of this product are 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM PDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 4
AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM PST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion,
and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours
for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special
advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of
significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header
WTPZ61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUEP1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov. Twitter
notifications on select National Hurricane Center products for the
eastern Pacific are available via the handle @NHC_Pacific.
Information about our eastern Pacific Twitter feed is available at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml. You can also interact with NHC on
Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

It looks like the season will begin slow but when it starts it will be bonkers.

[Yellow Evan]

It looks like the season will begin slow but when it starts it will be bonkers.

That's what I'm thinking. And one could argue we're long overdue for a slow start.

[Yellow Evan]

MJO appears to be coming around.

As such, the Euro shows a closed low at day 10. and the CMC is getting aggressive. With a CCKW and WWB coming, I like our chances with Andres and ill assume that the GFS is underdoing genesis like I expect the new version of it to do.

[gatorcane]

The wet-phase of the MJO shows a bullseye over the EPAC starting in the last week of this month, and that is quite a strong pulse too. The latest GEM shows a strong tropical storm and the GFS shows a low forming just off the coast of Costa Rica in the long-range. It would appear the EPAC should really crank up towards month's end.

[Yellow Evan]

CMC shows a powerful Andres.

GFS, nada for now, but I can kinda sense an Andres 97-like system off Central America.