#274 Postby euro6208 » Sun May 17, 2015 6:07 am
Down to 130 knots.
WDPN32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR
43//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 07W DOLPHIN LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE AND WEAKEN AFTER ITS
EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, IT REMAINS A
VERY INTENSE CYCLONE AS STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A 25-NM, ALBEIT MORE RAGGED, EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND POISED TO CROSS INTO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 07W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT
ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE. AFTERWARDS, IT WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC
AIRMASS AND BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM WITH THE INTENSITY DROPPING TO 70
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING ETT
AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. IT WILL BE REDUCED TO A STORM-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LEADING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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