2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[wxman57]

I got the latest (April) AMO numbers from Phil Klotzbach yesterday. They calculate the AMO a little differently from NOAA. It's the coldest April since 1950. As to whether we've entered a cool-phase AMO, the jury is still out. There have been cooler periods during warm cycles of the past (lower graphic) followed by years of warm AMO.

[gatorcane]

The MJO looks to become favorable for possible development in the Western Caribbean towards the end of this month and into early June:

[NDG]

Saharan dust has made it all the way to central FL, this very unusual for this time of the year which start visiting us in June if not July.

[Riptide]

Looks like haze, need some graphics to back up that claim

[WPBWeather]

Looks like haze, need some graphics to back up that claim

You are correct Riptide. No Uncle SAL anywhere near FL at this time.

[TheStormExpert]

Down here in West Palm Beach yesterday it was hazy, hot, and humid. Now today it's just hot and humid.

[NDG]

Looks like haze, need some graphics to back up that claim

Saharan dust does give the appearance of haze, I can tell the difference between the haze from the Saharan dust and haze from pollution due to mid level ridging and stagnant air at the surface during the summer, which does not happen much central and southern FL thanks to the Bermuda High which keeps a constant tropical sea breeze most times.

CBS4 in Miami had to say this about its arrival to Florida yesterday:

Mother's Day has given us our first episode of Saharan Dust of the season making for hazy but mostly sunny skies.

https://www.facebook.com/cbsweather

Edit:
The Saharan has been pumping plenty of SAL over the past few days into the Caribbean, a bit too unusual for this time of the year, IMO.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

[WPBWeather]

If CBS4 said that the graphics do not seem to back them up. See below:


[img]http://static.baynews9.com/images/wx/bn9/60min/SAL.jpg[/img]

Looks like haze, need some graphics to back up that claim

Saharan dust does give the appearance of haze, I can tell the difference between the haze from the Saharan dust and haze from pollution due to mid level ridging and stagnant air at the surface during the summer, which does not happen much central and southern FL thanks to the Bermuda High which keeps a constant tropical sea breeze most times.

CBS4 in Miami had to say this about its arrival to Florida yesterday:

Mother's Day has given us our first episode of Saharan Dust of the season making for hazy but mostly sunny skies.

https://www.facebook.com/cbsweather

Edit:
The Saharan has been pumping plenty of SAL over the past few days into the Caribbean, a bit too unusual for this time of the year, IMO.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

[NDG]

If CBS4 said that the graphics do not seem to back them up. See below:


[img]http://static.baynews9.com/images/wx/bn9/60min/SAL.jpg[/img]

Looks like haze, need some graphics to back up that claim

Saharan dust does give the appearance of haze, I can tell the difference between the haze from the Saharan dust and haze from pollution due to mid level ridging and stagnant air at the surface during the summer, which does not happen much central and southern FL thanks to the Bermuda High which keeps a constant tropical sea breeze most times.

CBS4 in Miami had to say this about its arrival to Florida yesterday:

Mother's Day has given us our first episode of Saharan Dust of the season making for hazy but mostly sunny skies.

https://www.facebook.com/cbsweather

Edit:
The Saharan has been pumping plenty of SAL over the past few days into the Caribbean, a bit too unusual for this time of the year, IMO.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

If anything I disagree with that image from bay news 9, there is clearly more SAL all across the Caribbean as clearly seen on visible satellite during the past few days.

The NWS office in Miami mentioned the Saharan Air Layer being over south Florida, I would hope you would not question their discussion on it

This was this mornings AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
924 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

.UPDATE...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO THE MOISTER AIR MASS MOVING IN
FROM THE EAST. THE AIR MASS WITH THE SAHARAN DUST HAS MOVED TO THE
WEST AND IT IS STILL PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AS
THE MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO ARRIVE FROM THE EAST, IT IS ERODING
THE SAHARAN AIR MASS FROM BELOW. THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS IS VISUALLY SEEN BY AN INCREASE IN VISIBILITY IN THE
LOW LEVELS, BUT WHEN YOU LOOK UP THE SKY STILL LOOKS A LITTLE
MILKY. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ALL DAY AND THEN OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FORM BUT IT
WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S. STEEPER LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 500 AND
700 MB ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE WEST PORTIONS WHERE THE SAHARAN
DUST IS STILL PRESENT. THE AREA OF FOCUS FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIE BETWEEN THE MOIST AIR AND THE DRIER AIR TO
THE WEST. THIS INTERFACE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WEST. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG IN THIS AREA.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[WPBWeather]

OK, I give in on Uncle SAL--he's apparently slipped into S. FL.

[NDG]

Yeah, like I said earlier is very unusual to see it so early for this time of the year to make it all the way to my neck of the woods. I guess is a sign for the MDR that the SAL will be in control this year, probably even more than the last few years.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF May update od the MSLP shows no change as very high pressures in the MDR,Caribbean,and GOM for ASO and SON.

[wxman57]

In addition, the paid EC site has 50% ACE, 8 named storms and 4-5 hurricanes. It has much below normal activity (tracks) between the central Caribbean & Africa (the MDR). Latest SSTs have below-normal temps from the southern Gulf through the Caribbean to Africa. All signs continue to point to a relatively inactive season, numbers & ACE-wise.

[Yellow Evan]

In addition, the paid EC site has 50% ACE, 8 named storms and 4-5 hurricanes. It has much below normal activity (tracks) between the central Caribbean & Africa (the MDR). Latest SSTs have below-normal temps from the southern Gulf through the Caribbean to Africa. All signs continue to point to a relatively inactive season, numbers & ACE-wise.

What kind of season does it show for the E/WPAC?

[Kingarabian]

In addition, the paid EC site has 50% ACE, 8 named storms and 4-5 hurricanes. It has much below normal activity (tracks) between the central Caribbean & Africa (the MDR). Latest SSTs have below-normal temps from the southern Gulf through the Caribbean to Africa. All signs continue to point to a relatively inactive season, numbers & ACE-wise.

What kind of season does it show for the E/WPAC?

I'm going to assume above average? That graphic shows an abundant amount of very low pressures across the enite EPAC basin.

[gatorcane]

One thing that is different from previous years I notice in this April/May timeframe is the presence of big 500MB highs that are building in across the eastern seaboard of the United States - here in South Florida the rainy season tried to get going much earlier than normal in the early to mid April timeframe, April saw record highs and now we are in a persistent east wind pattern with storms building across the Western half of the peninsula almost every day with areas of SAL coming in periodically.

Usually you have to wait until early to mid June or later to see this type of rainy season pattern. Last time I remember we saw such a pattern was 2004 where I lived in the Tampa Bay area at the time.

Could it be that these early season indicators are suggesting the semi-permanent east coast trough pattern we have seen for the past 7-8 years in Aug-September recurving storm after storm may not be present? While the presence of El Nino may induce less favorable conditions across the Atlantic basin, is it possible it is going to finally buck the pattern of this semi-permanent trough which may provide an increased opportunity for a system to get blocked and head west?

Of course if there are no hurricanes out there it won't matter! Still something to keep an eye on this season, not to mention the above normal SSTs sitting across the SW Atlantic (and Gulf).

12Z 48 hours 500MB pattern with a strong high sitting right over Eastern North America:


12Z 240 hour 500MB pattern and look at that high it is showing:

[wxman57]

Levi added the CanSIPS model data (Canadian seasonal) to his website. It, too, says higher pressure in the MDR, cooler water, less precip and generally hostile conditions across the basin.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=atl&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2015050100&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=263

[gatorcane]

Here is look at the 12Z ECMWF 500MB long-wave pattern for next week with a strong ridge right over the East coast of the United States. This pattern rarely materialized at all last spring and at the heart of the hurricane season last year and if it did materialize, didn't last long. Such a pattern would allow systems to get blocked and head west. Will we see this pattern come Aug-September?

[Hurricaneman]

1991 and 1957 are my primary analog years based on SSTAs with the -AMO, +PDO and ENSO and based on that the east coast and western GOM may be the worry spots based on those analogs and one thing of note is that in those seasons all the deep tropical activity was depreciated while the main developments were from stuff that formed on fronts like

1991
Ana
Bob
Claudette
Grace
Perfect Storm

1957
Bertha
Debbie
Frieda

and out of all the storms that formed in those 2 seasons only 2 formed in the MDR with Erika in 1991 and Carrie in 1957 so based on that watch out for even weak frontal systems as they also can cause significant to major hurricane landfalls during EL NINOS

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[TeamPlayersBlue]

I got the under on hurricanes this summer