Surface Trough East of Florida (Is Invest 90L)

#141 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue May 05, 2015 10:47 am

I'd be surprised if recon goes out tomorrow.

emeraldislenc · #142 Postby **emeraldislenc** » Tue May 05, 2015 10:52 am

Do you think we will get any rain or wind along the NC coast?

Hurricaneman · #143 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue May 05, 2015 11:14 am

emeraldislenc wrote:Do you think we will get any rain or wind along the NC coast?

more than likely but this also could double back SW and cause only fringe showers

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#144 Postby **NDG** » Tue May 05, 2015 11:24 am

12z GFS's forecast for 18z tomorrow about the time recon will be in the system investigating it.
According to this forecast the system seems to begin acquiring some subtropical characteristics but strongest surface winds could be far from the surface low pressure center.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

tropicwatch · #145 Postby **tropicwatch** » Tue May 05, 2015 11:39 am

It would be a weird way to start the season with a sub-tropical named storm 8-)

TheStormExpert · #146 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Tue May 05, 2015 11:53 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:It would be a weird way to start the season with a sub-tropical named storm

Not necessarily, most May storms that form in this region start out Subtropical, then possibly transition to fully Tropical after time.

TheStormExpert · #147 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Tue May 05, 2015 11:59 am

Rain has tapered off some here in NE Palm Beach County late this morning/early afternoon. Wouldn't be surprised if we do not manage to get much more measurable rainfall.

floridasun78 · #148 Postby **floridasun78** » Tue May 05, 2015 12:05 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Rain has tapered off some here in NE Palm Beach County late this morning/early afternoon. Wouldn't be surprised if we do not manage to get much more measurable rainfall.

[img ]http://fat.gfycat.com/RectangularDisguisedGorilla.gif[/img]

[img ]http://fat.gfycat.com/NimbleTangibleDalmatian.gif[/img]

[img ]http://fat.gfycat.com/WeirdFalseArgali.gif[/img]

still raining here in miami

#149 Postby **chaser1** » Tue May 05, 2015 12:13 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Rain has tapered off some here in NE Palm Beach County late this morning/early afternoon. Wouldn't be surprised if we do not manage to get much more measurable rainfall.

Really?? I would think quite the contrary. I would guess that you guys down there (especially coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, & Palm Beach) will be getting "socked" with heavy rain between this afternoon and this evening??

#150 Postby **northjaxpro** » Tue May 05, 2015 12:20 pm

There may be the first signs of a main vort trying to take shape down in the Florida Straits or just to the west of Andros Island. Radar images show decent rotation and convection in that area currently as it drifts very slowly northward.

#151 Postby **chaser1** » Tue May 05, 2015 12:36 pm

I would think that less volatile upper air conditions might exist for the moment, down towards the Florida Straits... but then again, I have to remind myself that this would perhaps more aptly apply if I were watching for purely tropical development. Though I can also see a bit of a twist in the more convective area just east of Andros Island, as i'm looking at the visible satellite I'd agree with your radar based observation and guess that a center might be trying to form perhaps just west of the Northern tip of Andros.

#152 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue May 05, 2015 12:46 pm

Its very important to remember that the strong upper level winds are needed for cyclogenesis to occur. The jets streak to the north of the Bahamas is providing a great deal of upper level divergence where the low is currently or about to form.

This will be a 100% non-tropical system that MAY slowly gain tropical characteristics as the upper low cuts off and creates a more favorable upper level environment for a (sub)tropical cyclone.

#153 Postby **AJC3** » Tue May 05, 2015 12:56 pm

northjaxpro wrote:There may be the first signs of a main vort trying to take shape down in the Florida Straits or just near or to the west of Andros Island. Radar images show decent rotation and convection in that area currently as it drifts very slowly northward.

The surface METARs show an increasingly better-defined inverted trough, with greater/sharper veering of winds about its axis.

#154 Postby **chaser1** » Tue May 05, 2015 12:59 pm

Like that of a lawn mower....., nature's baroclinic low "rip-cord" :wink:

Riptide · #155 Postby **Riptide** » Tue May 05, 2015 1:29 pm

12z Euro is fairly solid. Hoping someone can post it.

HurricaneTracker2031 · #156 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Tue May 05, 2015 1:38 pm

Riptide wrote:12z Euro is fairly solid. Hoping someone can post it.

Here it is in 48hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

StarmanHDB · #157 Postby **StarmanHDB** » Tue May 05, 2015 1:42 pm

Look out! It's raining!

HurricaneTracker2031 · #158 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Tue May 05, 2015 1:51 pm

This area of disturbed weather is still disorganized but it bursting with convection. Models are in agreement and it may be able to form later this week only if it is persistent. We will see.

Synopsis for Atlantic Basin and others: http://goo.gl/PQamgR

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

floridasun78 · #159 Postby **floridasun78** » Tue May 05, 2015 2:21 pm

i see heaviest rain staying off coast of fl for now

Hammy · #160 Postby **Hammy** » Tue May 05, 2015 4:11 pm

Zoomed satellite loop appears to show that the low has formed or is in the process of forming in the general vicinity of Grand Bahama/Abaco. There is a very faint turn in the low clouds directly south of Abaco with clouds coming out of the W-WNW to the west.

Surface Trough East of Florida (Is Invest 90L)

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Re: Surface Trough East of Florida (40% chance of development)

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