Surface Trough East of Florida (Is Invest 90L)

[NDG]

vorticity increasing some near the Isle of Youth and there is some new convection blowing up there. Latest vis loop shows a clear rotation in the clouds there. But models form the low on the northern side of Cuba more to the NE over the Southern Bahamas. I don't see much there yet.

http://i.imgur.com/Iq9biOy.gif
http://i.imgur.com/OUnRdYj.gif

Yeah, very evident on visible HR satellite loop the vorticity near the Isle of youth with a define eddy south of the western tip of Cuba. But models still persistent that a stronger vorticity will form near the northern Bahamas then track westerward closer to SE FL before moving north.

[Hurricaneman]

vorticity increasing some near the Isle of Youth and there is some new convection blowing up there. Latest vis loop shows a clear rotation in the clouds there. But models form the low on the northern side of Cuba more to the NE over the Southern Bahamas. I don't see much there yet.

http://i.imgur.com/Iq9biOy.gif
http://i.imgur.com/OUnRdYj.gif

Yeah, very evident on visible HR satellite loop the vorticity near the Isle of youth with a define eddy south of the western tip of Cuba. But models still persistent that a stronger vorticity will form near the northern Bahamas then track westerward closer to SE FL before moving north.

Or this could surprise many in the eastern GOM or Florida Penninsula. Who knows yet until it consolidates more

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[TheStormExpert]

This sort of reminds me of the first development stages of those messy disorganized early season storm. Recent storm that comes to mind when looking at this is TS Andrea(2013), though I don't expect a track into the Eastern GoM.

[cycloneye]

Big area of moisture covers a large portion of Cuba.Area near Isle of Youth seems the one to watch.

[chaser1]

My attention has been piqued. Models keep shifting west towards FL east coast, and I gatorcane's observations are spot on. Time to fire up the models and satellite loops ahead of schedule. With recon tentatively scheduled, this should be tagged as an invest sooner than later. Wouldn't be surprised if it happens within a day.

Interesting to watch how this could evolve. I've been consistently "bearish" on this particular model'ed low developing given the forecast upper level winds being so unfavorable. Overall I see no difference, however..... there seems to be a very small "call" right at the base of a sharp 200mb jet that exists more or less near the Island of Youth. The 200mb charts seem to propagate this "eye of the needle" area of lighter winds to be more or less off of Miami in about 24-30 hours (still a bit ahead of forecast development). As things look, there may be little opportunity for this low to develop UNLESS it were to do so in such an area of lessor wind shear... thus inhibiting development further to the East. If I had to guess (along with taking account of prior solid model consensus), I'd have to lean toward slightly quicker development between now and its migration into the Florida Straits, with a slower forward Northward motion thereafter essentially causing a T.D. to hug a good part of the Florida East Coast on its slow trek northward. If an upper high can be partially established in spite of strong upper level shear, than I'd suppose its not unreasonable for a moderate T.S. to develop, especially in light of the strong gradient to its north. I would think that most significant winds will be exclusively on its Northern quad., with ongoing strong winds as a direct result of the gradient to its north likely to cause dangerous tide conditions and minor coastal flooding for a larger area of coastline to its north. If this played out, S. Florida would get some significant rainfall in the near term, but following an increase in organization I would then assume that the majority of precip. might be limited to areas along the Florida East coast (until or if this were to eventually turn back westward near Jacksonville or eventually approach the Carolina coastline.)

[Steve]

Several of today's earlier models and the 12z GFS and NAM sort of paint a bullseye around SC but as far north as the border with NC. Rather than kicking out, it looks like many of them want to trap the circulation and move it back down SWerly or possibly just rain it out. Early action this year in an area I have as my bullseye for the USA (AL Coast to NC south of Cape Hatteras)

[TheStormExpert]

vorticity increasing some near the Isle of Youth and there is some new convection blowing up there. Latest vis loop shows a clear rotation in the clouds there. But models form the low on the northern side of Cuba more to the NE over the Southern Bahamas. I don't see much there yet.

http://i.imgur.com/Iq9biOy.gif
http://i.imgur.com/OUnRdYj.gif

Yep Gatorcane, kind of what I was thinking as well. Perhaps a larger broad mid-level low between Jamaica and the Island of Youth but not well defined. On the other hand, I had thought the same as you suggested, that perhaps a low to mid level COC could be trying to establish itself around (or just west of) the Island of Youth. If such formation were to occur, that the rainfall implications would be much more significant for the Keys & perhaps a good part of South & Central Florida. Needless to say, but Cuba could well get a significant drenching (not particularly good for flood prone area's)

cuba having bad flood already

Yeah, the last thing they need is more rain! After the flooding that occurred within the past week thanks unfortunately to the same front that caused Key West to have their third wettest April day ever!

[Weatherboy1]

Wow, looks like an early start to my Storm2k visits this year! Not sure what, if anything, we'll get out of this set up. But it reminds me of other May-type set ups where you have disturbed weather near or to the S/SE of Florida. Nothing major ever seems to spin up out of them. But subtrop/low-end-TSs are always a possibility. Need to see storms consolidate more around a possible low center with this one before worrying too much about anything but more rain ruining my cycling plans! LOL

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan made a video about this.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... this-week/

[floridasun78]

Levi Cowan made a video about this.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... this-week/

i saw video he good telling us what going on in tropical

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The ECMWF is prone to late-genesis forecasts, but it's better once a closed low gets going. It's definitely the weakest of our three main global models right now and the farthest away from the CONUS.

[TheStormExpert]

The ECMWF is prone to late-genesis forecasts, but it's better once a closed low gets going. It's definitely the weakest of our three main global models right now and the farthest away from the CONUS.

http://i.imgur.com/fAyzVkz.png

Interesting Tweet concerning what the Euro shows, via Levi Cowan(Tropical Tidbits).

[TheAustinMan]

Interesting to note that the NWS's National Digital Forecast Database's offshore/deep water model (only experimental at this time), keeps the anticipated system off the U.S. East Coast through Saturday like the ECMWF (Euro) and unlike the GFS, but I think that until a defined low-pressure system gets going, the models will be switching around possible track solutions before reaching a more closer degree of consensus. It's also interesting to note that the average of the ECMWF's ensembles places the system further west than the primary Euro-IFS model, though both are keeping the system offshore.

[TheAustinMan]

Satellite updated as of this post's posting superimposed upon the upper-level (200mb) vorticity analysis from CIMSS highlighting the upper-level low to the west of the mass of convection around Cuba.


Source: Background analysis courtesy of CIMSS. Satellite imagery from Google Earth.

[gatorcane]

pretty healthy east shift with the 18Z GFS, closer to the ECMWF track, also weaker.

[SFLcane]

Yep trending with EURO at this point. south florida may end up with cloudy skies but not much rain.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like the models are assuming that the convection firing over East Cuba remains the dominant part of this disturbance. However, what if the area near the Yucatan Channel, working with much warmer waters, takes over? Is that possible?

[TheStormExpert]

Well with the 18z GFS trending in line with the Euro showing little to no development it's hard to argue with the fact that environmental conditions must be pretty unfavorable. We also have TWC's Dr. Greg Postel stating the same.

Greg Postel
‏@GregPostel 7:50 PM - 4 May 2015
Conditions now no where near favorable for tropical development. 50+kts of shear over this baroclinic looking mess.

All I have to say is what a mess!! I feel that now the odds of any type of Subtropical/Tropical development should be closer to 10-20% at best.

[gatorcane]

850MB vorticity shows two areas, one near the Western tip of Cuba and another now showing up just offshore the eastern side of Cuba - it's this eastern ones the models are latching onto:

[TheStormExpert]

Yep trending with EURO at this point. south florida may end up with cloudy skies but not much rain.

Yeah, and that is basically what looks to be the case at the moment. Just look at this Radar/Satellite Composite loop.