Surface Trough East of Florida (Is Invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z MAY 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST OF
POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM NORTH OF NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 28.0N 78.0W FOR 05/1500Z.
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS
ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMO, if the models keep shifting it closer to the coast like this land interaction may become a problem.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'd put the odds of development closer to 60% now. It's not anything to get overly excited about, but the system could bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast U.S. coastline as we head toward the weekend.

[cycloneye]

[OuterBanker]

Even if it becomes Ana it probably will not get very strong. But, that said it is of concern here on the Outer Banks because of recent erosion problems. This weekend part of the Kitty Hawk beach road washed out. Simply from the moon tide and slightly rough seas. My fear is that it will meander around and kick up the surf further exacerbating a bad situation. Sometime storms of little concern for most can be devastating to others. Those familiar with the Outer Banks the area of washout is in front of the Black Pelican restaurant.

http://outerbanksvoice.com/2015/05/03/p ... overnight/

[northjaxpro]

The models indeed appear to keep shifting the system closer to the SE U.S. Atlantic seaboard, at least within the last 24 hours. The blocking pattern is well entrenched for this week over the SW Atlantic region, which I posted about on this thread during the weekend. Also, NHC in their Special Outlook is particularly honing in on the Low Pressure area to now develop over the NW Bahamas region, a bit farther west than I initially thought that would occur. This potential system will meander around all week, and an increased period of rip currents and possible beach erosion could occur along the Southeast U.S. coast , especially if this hybrid/subtropical feature drifts closer to the coast by the latter portions of this week. This is going to be an interesting system to watch.

[gatorcane]

Indeed northjaxpro, the models have been slowly creeping west. 12Z GFS running now and shows the low riding up the coast of SE Florida now. Could be quite a rainmaker, though most of the heaviest rainfall may stay east out over the Gulf stream and Bahamas as is generally typical with this type of setup. Definitely a lot of uncertainty of the rainfall potential with this one.

12Z GFS 42 hour image:

[ouragans]

Recon postponed to Wednesday, same time, same location

NOUS42 KNHC 041526
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 04 MAY 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z MAY 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-001 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS....................(CORRECTION FOR DATE)
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST OF
POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM NORTH OF NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 28.0N 78.0W FOR 06/1500Z
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS
ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

SC destination.

[cycloneye]

WPC discussion:


THE LARGEST INFLUENCES ON THE SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS THE
NEXT 7 DAYS INCLUDE THE DECAYING REX-BLOCK OVER THE BERING
SEA...WHICH IS PROMOTING SPLIT-FLOW DOWNSTREAM AND A MEAN TROUGH
IN THE WEST...AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE
ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE HIGH IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE OF ITS STEERING INFLUENCE WITH ANY
LOW OR LOWS THAT MIGHT FORM OVER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NHC AND OPC...WE ARE ALL IN
AGREEMENT TO REPOSITION ANY ANTICIPATED LOW SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD
AND STATIONARY FOR DAYS 5-7 IN ACCORDANCE WITH AN INTERMEDIATE
CHOICE BETWEEN THE MORE WESTWARD 06Z GEFS MEAN AND MORE OFFSHORE
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS PARTICULAR
SYSTEM OWING TO MULTIPLE UNCERTAINTIES IN CORE IDENTITY AND OTHER
MESOSCALE PROCESSES...NOT THE MENTION ANY UPSTREAM INFLUENCES.

[gatorcane]

vorticity increasing some near the Isle of Youth and there is some new convection blowing up there. Latest vis loop shows a clear rotation in the clouds there. But models form the low on the northern side of Cuba more to the NE over the Southern Bahamas. I don't see much there yet.

[floridasun78]

please post name of weather sevice not all now what WPC mean i think it palm beach

[Hurricaneman]

Wouldn't it be bad if all the models form this in the wrong spot and this ends up forming near the western tip of Cuba instead and head towards the eastern GOM and Florida from the west, I wouldn't put it as impossible especially since the best vorticity is near the western tip of Cuba

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM shift west:

[TheStormExpert]

12Z GEM shift west:

http://i.imgur.com/ArkkaQG.png

And much weaker it seems.

[floridasun78]

weather man from palm beach saw clip facebook show models move close fl coast he didnt say models was he show

[chaser1]

vorticity increasing some near the Isle of Youth and there is some new convection blowing up there. Latest vis loop shows a clear rotation in the clouds there. But models form the low on the northern side of Cuba more to the NE over the Southern Bahamas. I don't see much there yet.

Yep Gatorcane, kind of what I was thinking as well. Perhaps a larger broad mid-level low between Jamaica and the Island of Youth but not well defined. On the other hand, I had thought the same as you suggested, that perhaps a low to mid level COC could be trying to establish itself around (or just west of) the Island of Youth. If such formation were to occur, that the rainfall implications would be much more significant for the Keys & perhaps a good part of South & Central Florida. Needless to say, but Cuba could well get a significant drenching (not particularly good for flood prone area's)

[Evil Jeremy]

My attention has been piqued. Models keep shifting west towards FL east coast, and I gatorcane's observations are spot on. Time to fire up the models and satellite loops ahead of schedule. With recon tentatively scheduled, this should be tagged as an invest sooner than later. Wouldn't be surprised if it happens within a day.

[floridasun78]

vorticity increasing some near the Isle of Youth and there is some new convection blowing up there. Latest vis loop shows a clear rotation in the clouds there. But models form the low on the northern side of Cuba more to the NE over the Southern Bahamas. I don't see much there yet.

Yep Gatorcane, kind of what I was thinking as well. Perhaps a larger broad mid-level low between Jamaica and the Island of Youth but not well defined. On the other hand, I had thought the same as you suggested, that perhaps a low to mid level COC could be trying to establish itself around (or just west of) the Island of Youth. If such formation were to occur, that the rainfall implications would be much more significant for the Keys & perhaps a good part of South & Central Florida. Needless to say, but Cuba could well get a significant drenching (not particularly good for flood prone area's)

cuba having bad flood already

[NDG]

12Z GEM shift west:

http://i.imgur.com/ArkkaQG.png

And much weaker it seems.

Probably because it has the vorticity tracking closer to SE FL before moving more into more open waters, similar to the GFS. But it still has it moving ashore into NC as a strong Tropical or Subtropical Storm.