2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

xcool22 · #201 Postby **xcool22** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:29 am

okay thanks

#202 Postby **Steve** » Mon Apr 20, 2015 7:21 pm

Just looked at Bastardi's updated April forecast someone mentioned earlier. I think that's pretty on across the board. I'd draw that 50% of ACE 100 miles farther east though and likely go with 7-3-1 or 7-4-1, bulk in the Atlantic with a target zone of the AL Coast over to Eastern NC south of Cape Hatteras. 1957 argues for a potential West Gulf early storm. And the Gulf will be boiling in a couple months. But I'll believe that when I see it. Clearly this is not an official post.

ninel conde · #203 Postby **ninel conde** » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:38 am

he dropped to 50% of ace? yikes.

PTrackerLA · #204 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:39 am

What JB means is he expects 50% of this season's ACE to occur from SE LA through the state of Florida up the mid-Atlantic coast, extending a couple hundred miles offshore of course. He only expects 25% of the total ACE to come from the MDR which is pretty astonishing and shows how unfavorable things look. He's calling for total ACE to be 65%-80% of normal.

#205 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:49 am

A little off topic linkage, the past couple of years the tornado season over the US has kind of foretold or given match to the Atlantic season. We are a little past halfway the tornadic season and the message is the same, in terms of quantity is very below normal almost record low.

TeamPlayersBlue · #206 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:41 pm

If you dont mind us staying off topic, what is the main culprit of the weak tornado season?

xtyphooncyclonex · #207 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:56 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If you dont mind us staying off topic, what is the main culprit of the weak tornado season?

Usually during El Niño years, both the tornadic and hurricane seasons tend to be below normal and quieter than average

ninel conde · #208 Postby **ninel conde** » Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:08 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If you dont mind us staying off topic, what is the main culprit of the weak tornado season?

the multi-year wnw flow over the eastern half of the nation that cuts off moisture and warmth from the GOM.

CFLHurricane · #209 Postby **CFLHurricane** » Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:31 am

ninel conde wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If you dont mind us staying off topic, what is the main culprit of the weak tornado season?

the multi-year wnw flow over the eastern half of the nation that cuts off moisture and warmth from the GOM.

Will the upcoming super El Niño be able to dislodge this wnw flow?

#210 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:11 pm

Judign by http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html, ATL conditions may be improving slight. The MDR isn't as cold as it was last week, and the Caribbean has warmed slightly as well. Given that at this time of year the TICZ lifts northward. Once the MJO re-establishes itself over the EPAC, all the upward motion and rising air will be focused there.

CFLHurricane · #211 Postby **CFLHurricane** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:55 pm

CFLHurricane wrote:
ninel conde wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If you dont mind us staying off topic, what is the main culprit of the weak tornado season?

the multi-year wnw flow over the eastern half of the nation that cuts off moisture and warmth from the GOM.

Will the upcoming super El Niño be able to dislodge this wnw flow?

Anybody??? Any takers????

ninel conde · #212 Postby **ninel conde** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 10:03 pm

CFLHurricane wrote:
ninel conde wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If you dont mind us staying off topic, what is the main culprit of the weak tornado season?

the multi-year wnw flow over the eastern half of the nation that cuts off moisture and warmth from the GOM.

Will the upcoming super El Niño be able to dislodge this wnw flow?

no, enhance it. everything im seeing points to a ripping wnw flow across the eastern half of the nation through cane season and a super low in the nw atlantic, meaning a zilch cane season.

Hurricaneman · #213 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:54 pm

as of right now I think if this current flow of disturbences could be a precursor of possible tropical development in June but the shear would have to disappear before this idea would come to fruition

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

ninel conde · #214 Postby **ninel conde** » Sat Apr 25, 2015 6:08 am

JB makes many comments:

http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2015/04/24/l ... forecasts/

#215 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Apr 25, 2015 11:28 am

SSTs look to be even more above normal across the Gulf, Bahamas and SW Atlantic than a couple of weeks ago. There are record highs across Florida and the rainy season seems to be in full swing, far ahead of schedule this year.

These high SSTs are discussed in JBs latest analysis posted above :uarrow:

#216 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Apr 25, 2015 5:40 pm

The extreme warmth doesn't mean much if tropical waves can't get there. That said, storms from non-tropical sources could be an issue...

#217 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:16 am

It's interesting to note the global models are already trying to spin up something over the Bahamas next week where those above normal SSTs are it is only Apr 27th. South Florida saw impressive record highs yesterday with some areas hitting 100F degrees. That is unheard of here even in the heart of summer.

Given we are only in late April and might see a tropical system spin up next week, not sure if this is a harbinger for the rest of this season?

Hurricaneman · #218 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon May 04, 2015 11:17 am

Something caught my eye and I do hope its some kind of error but the CFSv2 seems to be showing below normal shear in the MDR across to the GOM and the Caribbean during the heart of hurricane season despite a low end strong El Nino

PS: this would give creedence to Larry Cosgrove's forecast but for all the wrong reasons

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#219 Postby **tolakram** » Mon May 04, 2015 2:07 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Something caught my eye and I do hope its some kind of error but the CFSv2 seems to be showing below normal shear in the MDR across to the GOM and the Caribbean during the heart of hurricane season despite a low end strong El Nino

PS: this would give creedence to Larry Cosgrove's forecast but for all the wrong reasons

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

That could be because it's showing an incredibly strong el nino centered much further west than what would be considered typical.

Bastardi showed this graphic on WeatherBell when discussing the CFSv2. Seems rather unlikely.

#220 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 05, 2015 10:25 am

For a change the sst's are rising in MDR.But how long will this continues depends on how the NAO does.

2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

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