SIO: IKOLA - Post-Tropical
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- jaguarjace
- Category 4
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SIO: IKOLA - Post-Tropical
93S INVEST 150404 0000 10.6S 87.4E SHEM 20 1007
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 12:51 pm WST on Saturday 4 April 2015
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 7 April 2015.
Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low lies near 10S 88E and is moving slowly towards the southeast.
This system is expected to move into the Western Region late on Monday or early
on Tuesday. There is a small window where conditions become more favourable for
development into a tropical cyclone as the system moves into the Western
Region. If this system does develop into a tropical cyclone it is expected to
be short-lived and pass well to the south of the Cocos Islands.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: Moderate
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 12:51 pm WST on Saturday 4 April 2015
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 7 April 2015.
Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low lies near 10S 88E and is moving slowly towards the southeast.
This system is expected to move into the Western Region late on Monday or early
on Tuesday. There is a small window where conditions become more favourable for
development into a tropical cyclone as the system moves into the Western
Region. If this system does develop into a tropical cyclone it is expected to
be short-lived and pass well to the south of the Cocos Islands.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: Moderate
Last edited by jaguarjace on Wed Apr 08, 2015 7:27 am, edited 6 times in total.
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- jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SIO: INVEST 93S
93S INVEST 150405 0600 11.7S 87.0E SHEM 25 1004
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:11 pm WST on Sunday 5 April 2015
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 8 April 2015.
Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low lies near 12S 87E and is moving slowly towards the southeast.
This system is expected to move into the Western Region late on Monday or early
on Tuesday. Conditions are becoming more favourable for development into a
tropical cyclone as the system approaches the Western Region. If this system
does develop into a tropical cyclone it is expected to be short-lived and pass
well to the south of the Cocos Islands.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Low
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:11 pm WST on Sunday 5 April 2015
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 8 April 2015.
Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low lies near 12S 87E and is moving slowly towards the southeast.
This system is expected to move into the Western Region late on Monday or early
on Tuesday. Conditions are becoming more favourable for development into a
tropical cyclone as the system approaches the Western Region. If this system
does develop into a tropical cyclone it is expected to be short-lived and pass
well to the south of the Cocos Islands.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Low
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- jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SIO: Tropical Depression 14 (INVEST 93S)
ZCZC 777
WTIO30 FMEE 050643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/14/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
2.A POSITION 2015/04/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8 S / 87.2 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/05 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 87.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/04/06 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/06 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 89.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/07 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 91.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/04/07 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 93.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/04/08 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 95.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/09 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 100.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
120H: 2015/04/10 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 105.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED AND RECENTLY THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPS
MORE THAN 0.5AO. FT IS HOWEVER RETAINED AT 2.0+ BASED ON AN AVERAGE
OF THE LAST 3 HOURS AND CONSTRAINT. THE INTENSITY OF THIS ADVISORY IS
BASED ON ASCAT DATA THAT SHOW NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO THE
CENTER AND OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF A BAROMETRIC COL THAT LIES SOUTH OF
20S. THIS WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A NEW UPPER TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES
FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND A BUILDING MID-LEVEL
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST, A GENERAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS
TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ON THIS SCENARIO.
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS(DECRASING SHEAR, EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND ONE TO
THE NORTH-WEST, SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN) ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TODAY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. TUESDAY, THE
FAVORABLE WINDOWS COULD BE DEFINITIVELY CLOSED (STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SST).
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 90E
MONDAY NIGHT.=
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 050643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/14/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
2.A POSITION 2015/04/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8 S / 87.2 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/05 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 87.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/04/06 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/06 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 89.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/07 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 91.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/04/07 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 93.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/04/08 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 95.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/09 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 100.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
120H: 2015/04/10 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 105.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED AND RECENTLY THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPS
MORE THAN 0.5AO. FT IS HOWEVER RETAINED AT 2.0+ BASED ON AN AVERAGE
OF THE LAST 3 HOURS AND CONSTRAINT. THE INTENSITY OF THIS ADVISORY IS
BASED ON ASCAT DATA THAT SHOW NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO THE
CENTER AND OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF A BAROMETRIC COL THAT LIES SOUTH OF
20S. THIS WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A NEW UPPER TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES
FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND A BUILDING MID-LEVEL
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST, A GENERAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS
TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ON THIS SCENARIO.
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS(DECRASING SHEAR, EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND ONE TO
THE NORTH-WEST, SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN) ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TODAY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. TUESDAY, THE
FAVORABLE WINDOWS COULD BE DEFINITIVELY CLOSED (STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SST).
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 90E
MONDAY NIGHT.=
NNNN
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- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22506
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: SIO: Tropical Depression 14 (INVEST 93S)
ASCAT indicates winds were 40 kts about 24 hours ago and they're still near 40 kts about 8 hours ago.
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- jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SIO: Tropical Depression 14 (INVEST 93S)
ZCZC 811
WTIO30 FMEE 051300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/14/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
2.A POSITION 2015/04/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 87.0 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/06 00 UTC: 13.2 S / 88.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/04/06 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 89.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/07 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 91.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/07 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 93.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 95.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 97.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 104.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE CLOUD PATTERN ON IR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME FLUCTUATIONS TODAY IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL DEPICT
GOOD LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND THE FINAL INTENSITY IS HOLD AT 30 KT.
OVERNIGHT, THE SYSTEM MAY RESUME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE FAVORABLE
CYCLE OF CONVECTION.
NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY: THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED NORTH OF A BAROMETRIC COL THAT LIES SOUTH OF 20S. THIS
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A NEW UPPER TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST. BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND A BUILDING MID-LEVEL NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST, A GENERAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ON THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH
SOME LONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY EXIST FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS(DECRASING SHEAR, EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND ONE TO
THE NORTH-WEST, SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN) ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TODAY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. TUESDAY, THE
FAVORABLE WINDOWS COULD BE DEFINITIVELY CLOSED (STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SST). THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED UPWARD A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST NWP OUTPUTS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 90E
MONDAY NIGHT.=
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 051300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/14/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
2.A POSITION 2015/04/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 87.0 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/06 00 UTC: 13.2 S / 88.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/04/06 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 89.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/07 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 91.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/07 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 93.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 95.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 97.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 26.2 S / 104.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE CLOUD PATTERN ON IR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME FLUCTUATIONS TODAY IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL DEPICT
GOOD LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND THE FINAL INTENSITY IS HOLD AT 30 KT.
OVERNIGHT, THE SYSTEM MAY RESUME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE FAVORABLE
CYCLE OF CONVECTION.
NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY: THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED NORTH OF A BAROMETRIC COL THAT LIES SOUTH OF 20S. THIS
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A NEW UPPER TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST. BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND A BUILDING MID-LEVEL NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST, A GENERAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ON THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH
SOME LONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY EXIST FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS(DECRASING SHEAR, EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND ONE TO
THE NORTH-WEST, SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN) ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TODAY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. TUESDAY, THE
FAVORABLE WINDOWS COULD BE DEFINITIVELY CLOSED (STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SST). THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED UPWARD A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST NWP OUTPUTS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 90E
MONDAY NIGHT.=
NNNN
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Web Developer at Force Thirteen
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Twitter/X : @force13_support
- jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SIO: IKOLA - Moderate Tropical Storm
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 6:59 am WST on Monday 6 April 2015
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 8 April 2015.
Potential Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone Ikola was located near 13S 88E at 2:00am WST moving slowly
towards the southeast. This system is expected to continue to strengthen before
moving into the Western Region late on Monday or early on Tuesday. The system
will be short lived due to unfavourable conditions that will weaken the system
late on Tuesday and during Wednesday. This system is forecast to pass well to
the south of the Cocos Islands so winds surrounding the system will not affect
the islands, however shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to increase
over the next few days.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: High
Wednesday: Moderate
Western Australia
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 6:59 am WST on Monday 6 April 2015
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 8 April 2015.
Potential Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone Ikola was located near 13S 88E at 2:00am WST moving slowly
towards the southeast. This system is expected to continue to strengthen before
moving into the Western Region late on Monday or early on Tuesday. The system
will be short lived due to unfavourable conditions that will weaken the system
late on Tuesday and during Wednesday. This system is forecast to pass well to
the south of the Cocos Islands so winds surrounding the system will not affect
the islands, however shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to increase
over the next few days.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: High
Wednesday: Moderate
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Twitter/X : @force13_support
- jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SIO: IKOLA - Moderate Tropical Storm
WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 88.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AS A SOLID CONVECTIVE
BAND SPIRALED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND ON A LLCC FEATURE IN THE 051545Z AMSUB MICROWAVE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 21S IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN.
INCREASING VWS, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD, IN ADDITION TO COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE TC TOWARDS ITS
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 - POSSIBLY SOONER. THERE IS A VERY LIMITED
NUMBER OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 88.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AS A SOLID CONVECTIVE
BAND SPIRALED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND ON A LLCC FEATURE IN THE 051545Z AMSUB MICROWAVE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 21S IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN.
INCREASING VWS, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD, IN ADDITION TO COOLING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE TC TOWARDS ITS
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 - POSSIBLY SOONER. THERE IS A VERY LIMITED
NUMBER OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//
NNNN
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This one is strengthening fast.
21S TWENTYONE 150406 0600 14.2S 89.2E SHEM 65 974
21S TWENTYONE 150406 0600 14.2S 89.2E SHEM 65 974
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Re: SIO: IKOLA - Moderate Tropical Storm
First time i saw it's designated name, i almost said Ebola
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Re:
Krit-tonkla wrote:This one is strengthening fast.
21S TWENTYONE 150406 0600 14.2S 89.2E SHEM 65 974
Yup but won't get stronger that much...
WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 89.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.7S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.1S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.3S 95.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.5S 98.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.5S 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.1S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 89.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1497 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM WITH GOOD SPIRALED
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). IN ADDITION TO THE MSI, A 060231 GPM 36GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE, GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS HAS
BEEN INCREASED BASED ON CONCURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND
PTGW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH
OFFSETS THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
AID IN DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING INCREASING VWS, TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
THOUGH TAU 48. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING VWS, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECEASE AS THE SYSTEM DROPS
POLEWARD OF 24 DEGREES SOUTH, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AT THE LATEST. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: IKOLA - Moderate Tropical Storm
I just looked over and saw it's eye...
Seems like a major cyclone now
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 APR 2015 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 14:26:59 S Lon : 89:51:42 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 987.1mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.3 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km
Center Temp : -11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 76km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb
Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.2 degrees
Seems like a major cyclone now
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 APR 2015 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 14:26:59 S Lon : 89:51:42 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 987.1mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.3 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km
Center Temp : -11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 76km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb
Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.2 degrees
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https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
KNES give this 5.5/100 knots
TXXS21 KNES 061208
TCSSIO
A. 21S (IKOLA)
B. 06/1130Z
C. 14.8S
D. 90.3E
E. ONE/MET-7
F. T5.5/5.5/D3.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHOWING AN EYE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
LIGHT GRAY EMBEDDED TEMPERATURE YIELDS AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0 WITH AN
OFF-WHITE EYE AND A BLACK RING GIVING AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +.5 FOR A
FINAL DT OF 5.5. MET IS 3.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. PT IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH A 6
HOUR AVERAGE T-NO OF A 5.5.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK
JTWC, however, give this only 4.0/65 knots
TPXS10 PGTW 061201
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA)
B. 06/1130Z
C. 14.88S
D. 90.03E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.05 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. PT AGREES WITH DT YIELDING 4.0.
MET YIELDS A 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LEMBKE
And the best track is 70 knots
21S IKOLA 150406 1200 14.9S 90.1E SHEM 70 970
edited to add JTWC, BT
TXXS21 KNES 061208
TCSSIO
A. 21S (IKOLA)
B. 06/1130Z
C. 14.8S
D. 90.3E
E. ONE/MET-7
F. T5.5/5.5/D3.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHOWING AN EYE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
LIGHT GRAY EMBEDDED TEMPERATURE YIELDS AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0 WITH AN
OFF-WHITE EYE AND A BLACK RING GIVING AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +.5 FOR A
FINAL DT OF 5.5. MET IS 3.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. PT IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH A 6
HOUR AVERAGE T-NO OF A 5.5.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK
JTWC, however, give this only 4.0/65 knots
TPXS10 PGTW 061201
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA)
B. 06/1130Z
C. 14.88S
D. 90.03E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.05 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. PT AGREES WITH DT YIELDING 4.0.
MET YIELDS A 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LEMBKE
And the best track is 70 knots
21S IKOLA 150406 1200 14.9S 90.1E SHEM 70 970
edited to add JTWC, BT
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- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- jaguarjace
- Category 4
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- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SIO: IKOLA - Tropical Cyclone
21S IKOLA 150406 1200 14.9S 90.1E SHEM 70 970
ZCZC 898
WTIO30 FMEE 061306
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/14/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (IKOLA)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 90.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/07 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 91.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/07 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 93.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 94.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 95.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/04/09 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 97.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
72H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 97.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, IKOLA CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY, WITH AN
ELONGATED EYE PATTERN. THE LAST MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
A STOP IN THIS RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND.
THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF A MID TO HIGH LEVELS TROUGH, AND IS
TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING SLIGHTLY.
THE FAVORABLE PERIOD IS ENDING. ACTUALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR
IS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONNED TROUGH. THE SYSTEM HAS
PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK OF INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS FORECAST TO KEEP ON A SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
OVER THIS PATH, THE VWS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND IKOLA SHOULD
WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY THE RSMC REUNION FOR THIS SYSTEM.
NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY THE TCWC PERTH.=
NNNN
ZCZC 898
WTIO30 FMEE 061306
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/14/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (IKOLA)
2.A POSITION 2015/04/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 90.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 190 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/04/07 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 91.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2015/04/07 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 93.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/04/08 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 94.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/04/08 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 95.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/04/09 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 97.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
72H: 2015/04/09 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 97.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, IKOLA CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY, WITH AN
ELONGATED EYE PATTERN. THE LAST MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
A STOP IN THIS RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND.
THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF A MID TO HIGH LEVELS TROUGH, AND IS
TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING SLIGHTLY.
THE FAVORABLE PERIOD IS ENDING. ACTUALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR
IS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONNED TROUGH. THE SYSTEM HAS
PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK OF INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS FORECAST TO KEEP ON A SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
OVER THIS PATH, THE VWS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND IKOLA SHOULD
WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY THE RSMC REUNION FOR THIS SYSTEM.
NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY THE TCWC PERTH.=
NNNN
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Web Developer at Force Thirteen
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Twitter/X : @force13_support
Re: SIO: IKOLA - Tropical Cyclone
21S IKOLA 150406 1800 15.9S 91.2E SHEM 95 952
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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