Texas Spring-2015

[wxman57]

I'll be in Austin next Monday-Thursday for the National Hurricane Conference. They get in on the warm temperature fun next week as well. Up into the 90s! Pretty cold for Tuesday, though - only into the low-mid 70s.

Portastorm - looks like I won't have a car next week as I'm not the one driving to Austin. If you want to have lunch you'll have to drop by the hotel & pick me up.

[Tireman4]

Some GREAT spring weather coming up next week. Upper 80s across SE TX and near 100 in the LRGV. Finally, a touch of warmth...

Ughhh.....Ughhh

[dhweather]

Looks hit and miss for tonight, and then pretty dry for the next week or more. Wish we could bank some more rain before the warmth completely dries the soil out.

[weatherdude1108]

March 25, 2009, six years ago (on a Wednesday), northwest Austin and south Cedar Park had large hail. We had ping pong ball sized at our place. Destroyed my landscape and did a number on our "30-year" roof. All of the houses on my street got a new roof that year. That storm humbled me and and my appreciation of storms.

This is a video I found on YouTube, taken by someone else, not far from where I live.

Austin hail storm 25 March 2009: https://youtu.be/Bl9nYsheGC4

[Shoshana]

Our neighborhood got new roofs because of hail in 2003, 2008 and 2013! Crazy. I hope we have at least 3 more years before another one.

[gpsnowman]

I do not know which is worse, a winter storm tease that never materializes or the damn cap that seems to be centered over DFW most of the time robbing us of a line of solid thunderstorms. How far do we have to go back in time to remember the scenario of cold front/line of storms happening on a regular basis in the springtime? The past few years past the dry line to our west gives us Metroplexers severe weather but the good old fashioned line of storms is a dying breed around here. It happens from time to time and I have lived here for over 30 years and it is a striking contrast the difference between spring storms from just a few years ago to now. On a good note, today was spectacular. Cool windy late March day with bright sunshine. We need all the moisture and then sunny warm days we can before summer heat kicks in and then it is all over. Summer heat is not something I am looking forward to. Sigh....

[TarrantWx]

I do not know which is worse, a winter storm tease that never materializes or the damn cap that seems to be centered over DFW most of the time robbing us of a line of solid thunderstorms. How far do we have to go back in time to remember the scenario of cold front/line of storms happening on a regular basis in the springtime? The past few years past the dry line to our west gives us Metroplexers severe weather but the good old fashioned line of storms is a dying breed around here. It happens from time to time and I have lived here for over 30 years and it is a striking contrast the difference between spring storms from just a few years ago to now. On a good note, today was spectacular. Cool windy late March day with bright sunshine. We need all the moisture and then sunny warm days we can before summer heat kicks in and then it is all over. Summer heat is not something I am looking forward to. Sigh....

I'll second that. I can't remember the last good squall line we got here in DFW. They all seem to break apart before they get here. Oklahoma always gets slammed. It's also disheartening being in Tarrant county. The storms either are either all east of I-35 and I can see the towers go up just to my east or they're too far west. It is a pretty stark difference to just several years ago when we seemed to get hit by a squall lines with regularity. Perhaps this is a feedback mechanism from the multi-year drought? Maybe someone with more knowledge could opine here.

[weatherdude1108]

C'mon rain.

p000
FXUS64 KEWX 281123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

[TheProfessor]

Today is the 15th Anniversary of what started it all for me. I remember it like it was yesterday.

[Ntxw]

Hi guys, I have news on changes in the weather pattern. The PNA is switching into a -PNA pattern as the transition is currently taking place. This means a colder period around easter week followed by the opening up of the Gulf into Texas. Eastern US ridging will take hold and inter-mountain trough bringing our flow from the Gulf of Mexico. If you like severe weather this is the first real opportunity on a wide scale for a good set up. The El Nino is strengthening, if you like thunderstorms and MCS activity this may be the first good chance.

[Ntxw]

Cold front coming through. Some quickly changing weather for some tonight.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hi guys, I have news on changes in the weather pattern. The PNA is switching into a -PNA pattern as the transition is currently taking place. This means a colder period around easter week followed by the opening up of the Gulf into Texas. Eastern US ridging will take hold and inter-mountain trough bringing our flow from the Gulf of Mexico. If you like severe weather this is the first real opportunity on a wide scale for a good set up. The El Nino is strengthening, if you like thunderstorms and MCS activity this may be the first good chance.

Im pulling for multiple big California storms now. They need the rain and snow so bad in the west. This fire season will be terrible if not. 9% of the normal snowpack right now is incredible.

[gboudx]

Hi guys, I have news on changes in the weather pattern. The PNA is switching into a -PNA pattern as the transition is currently taking place. This means a colder period around easter week followed by the opening up of the Gulf into Texas. Eastern US ridging will take hold and inter-mountain trough bringing our flow from the Gulf of Mexico. If you like severe weather this is the first real opportunity on a wide scale for a good set up. The El Nino is strengthening, if you like thunderstorms and MCS activity this may be the first good chance.

DFW's morning AFD is alluding to this in the extended. It is nice to see, from my house, water back into Lake Ray Hubbard where it has been dry. Still lots of dry lake bed to fill.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A PATTERN SUITABLE FOR STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS HAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION...THE CLIMATE
FORECAST SYSTEM CHICLETS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS STILL VERY FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

[Shoshana]

The bluebonnets are popping up all over! They look great. I have pictures, my dog is in them though! I took my pictures near the Austin/ P'ville border

[Brent]

the Day 1 SLGT just expanded to include the northern part of DFW:




...OK/NORTH TX...
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF OK AND NORTH TX...WHERE
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500+ J/KG. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT...DESPITE WEAK FORCING...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN HEATING FINALLY ELIMINATES THE CAP ALONG THE
DRYLINE. A SUBTLE FEATURE OVER EASTERN CO IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
AND MAY PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...BUT SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A
RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
MOST RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONGEAL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

[Texas Snowman]

Friend near Little Rock has already experienced some golf ball sized hail in a severe storm around lunchtime.

Hail - big hail especially - is something I'd rather not see this evening.

[Brent]

:uarrow: Friend near Little Rock has already experienced some golf ball sized hail in a severe storm around lunchtime.

Hail - big hail especially - is something I'd rather not see this evening.

That storm has gone tornadic in SE Arkansas with at least a funnel cloud reported.

Starting to see some weak convection forming to the NW here.

UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 80S ACROSS NWRN TX INTO EXTREME SWRN OK. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREACHED WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE
TX/OK BORDER..THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP ESEWD ALONG WARM FRONT THAT IS
DRAPED ACROSS SRN OK. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

[dhweather]

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONJOINED AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SURGES
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT VEERING WINDS AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER ALONG THE DRYLINE A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CAP
BECOMES WEAKEST. WE WILL INDICATE 20 POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

[Brent]

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONJOINED AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SURGES
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT VEERING WINDS AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER ALONG THE DRYLINE A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CAP
BECOMES WEAKEST. WE WILL INDICATE 20 POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

I'm still waiting for a real thunderstorm here.

[Ntxw]

Interesting this afternoon. Storms this morning left boundaries and if the skies clear, I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of localized outbreak if things line up.