2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[ninel conde]

but only to a cat1. meanwhile, LC in his latest newsletter states he suspects we will have roughly double the number of named storms from last season.

[Yellow Evan]

but only to a cat1. meanwhile, LC in his latest newsletter states he suspects we will have roughly double the number of named storms from last season.

His reasoning for such high forecast? Everything looks so hostile.

[cycloneye]

but only to a cat1. meanwhile, LC in his latest newsletter states he suspects we will have roughly double the number of named storms from last season.

His reasoning for such high forecast? Everything looks so hostile.

Read it here

[Ntxw]

The biggest thing that stuck out to me it seems from reading and assumptions, he is basing that presumably on a weak La Nina? If there was a Nina of some sort then yes, I would agree on a much more active season. That is not even possible at this point. We won't get a weak Nina in 2015 no less by hurricane season. If anything it will be a stonger Nino.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

He even is assuming that the present weak El Niño may transition to Neutral.... Um, what kind of assumption is that? I mean I don't really post in ATL thread but I think what Larry said was ridiculous and it struck me. Above average activity for a season bombarded with shear is a rarity, or an impossibility IMO

[Yellow Evan]

I agree there's no way we get a La Nina.

And even if we did, the -AMO-like pattern will limit activity like it did in 2013, our last non-Nino.

[cycloneye]

Is almost here and I don't have to say what it is so get ready to participate.

[wxman57]

but only to a cat1. meanwhile, LC in his latest newsletter states he suspects we will have roughly double the number of named storms from last season.

His reasoning for such high forecast? Everything looks so hostile.

Reasoning? "Mega equatorial waves", like the strongest MJO pulse ever recorded now in the Pacific, and the demise of what he calls the Saharan heat ridge. However, such strong equatorial waves may help the development of El Nino, making the Atlantic Basin more hostile for 2015. I think he'll be reducing his predicted number downwards in the future.

[Ntxw]

Reasoning? "Mega equatorial waves", like the strongest MJO pulse ever recorded now in the Pacific, and the demise of what he calls the Saharan heat ridge. However, such strong equatorial waves may help the development of El Nino, making the Atlantic Basin more hostile for 2015. I think he'll be reducing his predicted number downwards in the future.

Now had the Mega equatorial wave had occurred over the Indian Ocean/Indonesia, as did in the mega equatorial wave of 1985, then we would be talking differently. That one in conjunction with La Nina.

[CrazyC83]

There hasn't been a major hurricane at all in the Gulf north of 25N since Rita...and since 2006, only a handful of hurricanes in the region:

2006 none
2007 Humberto (Cat 1, small, rapidly deepened on apporach)
2008 Dolly (Cat 2, weakened on approach), Gustav (Cat 2, steady on approach), Ike (Cat 2, steady on approach)
2009 Ida (Cat 1, weakened/became post-tropical on approach)
2010 none
2011 none
2012 Isaac (Cat 1, deepened on approach)
2013 none
2014 none

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just goes to show the homegrown hype theories year after year dont mean much. And besides the obvious that the gulf is dead.

[Yellow Evan]

Just goes to show the homegrown hype theories year after year dont mean much. And besides the obvious that the gulf is dead.

I agree. No offense anyone, but every year it seems that people say "watch the homegrowns", yet it never happens.

I expect most activity in 2015 if any to be from high latitude systems.

[Ntxw]

I expect most activity in 2015 if any to be from high latitude systems.

I'm wondering if the same areas as 2014 will be favored. I don't think Bermuda would want another repeat of that, but they will have to keep tabs for sure.

[ninel conde]

Just goes to show the homegrown hype theories year after year dont mean much. And besides the obvious that the gulf is dead.

due to the never ending wnw flow the gom north of 25 has been dead for some time and it wont matter if it heats up to 130 degrees if the wnw flow continues.

[Steve]

That depends. Often an interruption of generic SE wind flow into Texas leads to development over there. But I hear what you're saying. I also sort of agree with Ntxw, but I'll still want to see water temperature profiles are in June and July.

I agree. No offense anyone, but every year it seems that people say "watch the homegrowns", yet it never happens.

Here's the thing. You can't take it anecdotally. Also, you've been around long enough that you should probably be able to cull who is blowing smoke and who is putting out stuff actually worth reading which also happens to be agenda-neutral. Just because there may or may not be homegrown type systems doesn't mean that any of them have to hit. Go back and look at the 2014 track map. You had about 4 systems form within a few to several hundred miles of the US East Coast. Some people would tell you that homebrew/grown systems don't form from tropical waves. That's bunk. It's often a combination of a mid, upper or surface feature intersecting with a wave or a sequence of waves that starts the 'cooking'.

I think it's important to note that not a lot of seasons with homegrown activity will mirror 1995 or 1998 which off of memory had these types of systems forming in the Gulf.

[gatorcane]

Waters are running very warm around Florida, the Bahamas, and also into the Gulf. I looked back at the past several years and haven't seen waters this warm at this time in any of those years. The recent cold front should help keep these waters in check but these SST anomalies are something to watch in the coming months:

[wxman57]

The Caribbean & Main Development Region (east to Africa) look particularly hostile for 2015. Areas less hostile will be north of the Caribbean into the Subtropical Atlantic and in the Gulf of Mexico. I suspect that most activity will form north of the Caribbean (hurricanes, particularly), though we may see 1 hurricane in the Gulf. Best analog now is 1957.

Just arrived at the National Hurricane Conference in Austin. Staying at the Hilton, Portastorm. Klotzbach & Gray's 2015 outlook is tomorrow morning at 8:30am. We've been emailing back and forth and I think he'll be going sub-10 named storms this year. I'd say between 7 and 9 named storms and about 4 hurricanes with 1-2 intense. Less ACE than last year.

[Hurricaneman]

Seasons with 10 or less storms with hurricane or higher landfalls listed under those years since 1950


2014: 8\6\2
Arthur 100mph

2009: 9\3\2

2006: 10\5\2

1997: 8\3\1
Danny 80mph

1994: 7\3\0

1993: 8\4\1

1992: 7\4\1
Andrew 175mph

1991: 8\4\2
Bob 105mph

1987: 7\3\1
Floyd 75mph

1986: 6\4\0
Bonnie 85mph
Charley 80mph

1983: 4\3\1
Alicia 115mph

1982: 6\2\1

1979: 9\5\2
David 105mph
Frederic 135mph

1977: 6\5\1
Babe 75mph

1976: 10\6\2
Belle 75mph

1975: 9\6\3
Eloise 125mph

1973: 8\4\1

1972: 7\3\0
Agnes 85mph

1970: 10\5\2
Celia 125mph

1968: 8\4\0
Gladys 85mph

1967: 8\5\1
Beulah 160mph

1965: 6\4\1
Betsy 155mph

1963: 9\7\2
Cindy 80mph

1962: 5\3\1

1960: 7\4\2
Donna 130mph

1958: 10\7\5
Helene 130mph

1957: 8\3\2
Audrey 125mph

1956: 8\4\2
Flossy 90mph

1952: 7\6\3
Able 105mph

1951: 10\8\5

and the cases in these quiet seasons in terms of named storms the major hurricanes happened in 1992 with Andrew, Alicia in 1983, Frederic in 1979, Eloise in 1975, Celia in 1970, Beulah in 1967, Betsy in 1965, 1960 with Donna, 1958 with Helene,and 1957 with Audrey so most of these fit in the it only takes one category and there may be some analogs in there for 2015 especially the El Nino years listed

[Steve]

The Caribbean & Main Development Region (east to Africa) look particularly hostile for 2015. Areas less hostile will be north of the Caribbean into the Subtropical Atlantic and in the Gulf of Mexico. I suspect that most activity will form north of the Caribbean (hurricanes, particularly), though we may see 1 hurricane in the Gulf. Best analog now is 1957.

Audrey and 4 other systems formed in the Gulf that year. I DEFINITELY don't expect that much activity in the Gulf, but I guess that puts us on a watch for a potential early season threat. Joe Bastardi has been noting 57-58 winter a lot for analogs on the Saturday summary (mixed in with some others). That was a pretty intense storm and maybe the strongest to hit that region along with Rita in the last 40-50 years or so.

[ninel conde]

if the whole pacific is active then the atlantic will be truly dead.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Pac burst should last a couple of years, but big turnaround in enso, and epac sst likely after that.. similar to late 50s/60s

at least JB is finally dropping the notion that every season will be like 54/55. if next season is also dead then this will be a long streak of dead seasons.