WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow, violent conditions over Chuuk right now.



Later today, a category 3 wouldn't surprise me.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAR 2015 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 7:51:01 N Lon : 151:14:49 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 981.3mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 3.7

Center Temp : -54.6C Cloud Region Temp : -69.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 65km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 11.7 degrees

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, that's the same 60 kt gust I mentioned earlier. It might have affected the instrument, but then again, perhaps not. That ob is over an hour old now, but METARs out of PTKK have been pretty inconsistent these past 24 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Either way, that's safe to assume probs of an intensity of at least 60-65 knts, and probs the 70 knt estimate from the JTWC is reasonable.

[1900hurricane]

Oops, wrong eye!

Center is over Chuuk, not N of Chuuk. Final ADT and Initial Guess should be interchanged here.

Actually, ADT might be pretty close to reality in this case. The latest (mostly) useable pass, a 0353Z NOAA-19 pass, seems to indicate that the center is almost to 8*N. at the moment.

[1900hurricane]

Actually, after cross-checking with visible imagery, which is showing a good center fix, the center is not as far north as that NOAA-19 pass is implying, which I would guess could be chalked up to poor resolution. Anyway, vis and the CIMSS ADT 8.2.1 seem to be in good agreement in relation to the center fix.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAR 2015 Time : 040000 UTC
Lat : 7:46:36 N Lon : 150:50:54 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 981.3mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 3.9

Center Temp : -48.8C Cloud Region Temp : -67.2C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 65km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 11.4 degrees

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Maysak has come far and it will continue to intensify. It is looking very well and it is developing an eye. People in the path of the storm should pay close attention.



Analysis for Typhoon Maysak: http://goo.gl/w8aIip

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm confident landfall would be south of Legazpi, Albay and north of Maasin, S Leyte then move west or WSW towards Masbate or North tip of Cebu. I will release my typhoon forecast sometime later this afternoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Up to 75 knots

04W MAYSAK 150329 0600 7.6N 151.1E WPAC 75 967

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ26 KNES 290320
TCSWNP

A. 04W (MAYSAK)

B. 29/0232Z

C. 7.6N

D. 151.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER EMBEDDED IN MG FOR DT=4.0. MET AND PT=4.5. FT IS
BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

28/2110Z 7.3N 152.6E SSMIS


...SALEMI

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN10 PGTW 290310

A. TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK)

B. 29/0232Z

C. 7.50N

D. 152.52E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI


29/0232 UTC 7.6N 151.7E T4.5/4.5 MAYSAK -- West Pacific



H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 1.00 WRAP +0.5 W BAND YIELDS A
DT OF 4.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/2341Z 7.45N 152.17E MMHS

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 768 NM EAST OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE NORTH. A 290633Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO REFLECTS THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND EXTENSIVE
SPIRAL BANDING. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE MSI AND SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGERY (NOTE THAT THE 91 GHZ
POSITION IS TILTED ABOUT 10 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
POSITION). THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TY MAYSAK
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72. TY
04W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SST (29 CELSIUS) AND IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OF ONLY 85
NM AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 04W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. AS THE TYPHOON GAINS LATITUDE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS (15-20 KNOT). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 290659
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
500 PM CHST SUN MAR 29 2015

...TYPHOON MAYSAK MOVING AWAY FROM CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR LOSAP IN CHUUK
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR LOSAP IN CHUUK
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING FOR CHUUK AND ULUL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP
STATE...WHILE A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU IN CHUUK
STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IF MAYSAK DEVIATES SOUTHWARD.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI...FAIS...ULITHI AND YAP
IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.6N 150.9E

ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FANANU
ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 135 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 135 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 440 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 785 MILES EAST OF ULITHI AND
ABOUT 885 MILES EAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MAYSAK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.9 EAST...MOVING WEST AT 12
MPH. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WILL BRING MAYSAK BETWEEN PULUWAT AND ULUL THIS EVENING. THE CENTER
OF TYPHOON MAYSAK IS MOVING AWAY FROM CHUUK LAGOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 85 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY STEADILY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND 70 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUT TO ABOUT 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY TONIGHT AT 1100 PM.

$$

WILLIAMS

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Much farther west now from JMA, imminent landfall for Samar-Bicol and would even go farther south.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 290903
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
800 PM CHST SUN MAR 29 2015

...TYPHOON MAYSAK MOVING AWAY FROM CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TYPHOON WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE HAVE PAST FOR CHUUK
ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT FOR ULUL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU IN CHUUK
STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE IF THE EYE OF MAYSAK DEVIATES SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74
MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IF THE EYE OF
MAYSAK DEVIATES SOUTHWARD.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI AND YAP
IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.7N 150.3E

ABOUT 110 MILES WEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 140 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FANANU
ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 95 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 220 MILES EAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 395 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 440 MILES EAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 545 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 745 MILES EAST OF ULITHI AND
ABOUT 840 MILES EAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MAYSAK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 7.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.3 EAST...MOVING WEST AT 12
MPH. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WILL BRING MAYSAK BETWEEN PULUWAT AND ULUL THIS EVENING. THE CENTER
OF TYPHOON MAYSAK IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM CHUUK LAGOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 85 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY STEADILY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND 70 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUT TO ABOUT 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO/EDSON

[euro6208]

Highest wind gust recorded in Chuuk was slightly higher than what is reported in this thread, 62 knots (71 mph) at Chuuk Weather Service Office as the eastern portion of the center of Maysak passed over Chuuk International Airport. 7 inches of rain has fallen with more heavy rains possible tonight and a premilinary minimum central pressure of 987 mb...

White specks in that deep purple represents sea surface winds of 50 knots as it moves over Chuuk

Second image shows Maysak after plowing through Chuuk

Third is Chuuk's location...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My forecast for Maysak



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This should be a cat 2 already, yet JT disagrees

Oh well

04W MAYSAK 150329 1200 7.9N 149.9E WPAC 80 963

[cycloneye]

My forecast for Maysak



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nice page that I liked at FB.What is your name to be mutual friends? I will add you to different weather groups.