Texas Spring-2015

[weatherdude1108]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
505 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-192015-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
505 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...

A COMBINATION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS...INCLUDING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL INTERACT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST
AIRMASS TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MODERATE RAINS CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED WITH
AVERAGE TOTALS NOW AT 2 TO 5 INCHES AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES. SOILS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED. RUNOFF MAY BECOME RAPID AND
CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WHERE SOME HEAVY
RAINS HAVE OCCURRED RECENTLY. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT
OF FLOODING WILL BE IN URBAN AREAS AND ALONG TO EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND ESCARPMENT AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR AT LEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THOSE RESIDING IN OR VISITING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT. PLEASE MONITOR THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO ENCOUNTER TRAVEL
IMPACTS SHOULD FLOODING OCCUR IN YOUR AREA.

$$

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=ewx&gc=7

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Another strong storm system will approach TX early this weekend with widespread rainfall likely.

A weak frontal boundary is nearly stationary this morning from C TX into E TX, south of this boundary the air mass is moist and even a little unstable with dewpoints in the 60’s. High dewpoints over the cool nearshore waters is leading to sea fog formation and this will plague the coast for the next few days. Radar also shows a cluster of showers over Jackson and Colorado Counties moving NNE at around 10mph.

Boundary just to our north may sag into our northern counties today and with heating into the upper 70’s may spark a shower or two from College Station to Livingston.

Main show gets underway Friday evening and all day Saturday as the next Baja low moves across TX. Expect an increase in showers Friday evening and overnight as moisture increases off the western Gulf of Mexico and lift increases from the SW. The boundary to our north will very slowly sag into the area and add an additional focus for rainfall especially on Saturday. Will likely see periods of heavy rainfall in training bands on Saturday especially from Columbus to Conroe northward, but the entire area will see rainfall. Not expecting any severe weather with limited instability. Sea fog will continue along the coast likely through Sunday morning.

Rainfall amounts Friday-Sunday will average 1-2 inches across the region with isolated totals of 3-5 inches possible. The highest threat for the heaviest rainfall will be along and NW of US 59 or across the areas that have already been hard hit over the last week with heavy rainfall. Flooding concerns especially on already elevated watersheds is possible this weekend into early next week.

Hydro:
River continue in recession from last week’s rainfall with only the lower Trinity still in flood from releases from Lake Conroe. Forecasted rainfall amounts this weekend will almost certainly produce new rises and with wet grounds run-off will be maximized across the region. New rises to flood stage will be possible this weekend into early next week on several of the local rivers.

[Portastorm]

It's worth noting that the latest NAM/GFS runs are coming in line with the Euro rainfall amounts (3-4" generally) for south central Texas. This Nino-esque looking system certainly needs to be watched as we may be in a flash flood event overnight Friday into Saturday.

On the plus side we need the rain and hopefully it will dissuade all the hipsters in town for SXSW that "you don't want to move here because it rains a lot in March."

[weatherdude1108]

Newly issued Flash Flood Watch. These overnight training episodes can be dangerous. If we could get significant runoff into the mainstem rivers, then into the lakes...safely...

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY...

.A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM MEXICO PROVIDES ADDITIONAL FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.

TXZ171>173-186>194-203>209-218>225-228-201000-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.A.0002.150320T2100Z-150322T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-
CALDWELL-FAYETTE-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...
KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...
SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...UVALDE...HONDO...
SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...
CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...
KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
955 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...
BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...
DIMMIT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON AND ZAVALA.

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES FROM SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

* RAPID RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND URBAN
AREAS NORMALLY SUBJECT TO FLOODING. RECENT RAINFALL ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS LED TO
SATURATED SOILS WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR WITH
LESS RAINFALL THAN USUAL...POSING AN ELEVATED THREAT TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR
THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...PLAN NOW FOR WHAT
YOU WILL DO IF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS. STAY INFORMED AND BE
READY TO ACT IF YOU SEE FLOODING OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED.

&&

$$

[TheAustinMan]

Handy graphic from the weather forecast office in New Braunfels depicting the wet set up for this weekend.

[JayDT]

So hows this system looking for the DFW area?

[South Texas Storms]

So hows this system looking for the DFW area?

DFW has a pretty good chance of getting 1-2 inches of rain from this system. Higher chances south and east.

[JayDT]

So hows this system looking for the DFW area?

DFW has a pretty good chance of getting 1-2 inches of rain from this system. Higher chances south and east.

1-2 inches sounds pretty good. Hopefully it'll be closer to 2 inches. Thank you!

[TheAustinMan]

The Storm Prediction Center issued (3:45 PM CT) a mesoscale discussion (#129) for areas west of DFW regarding the possibility of marginally severe thunderstorms and a possible brief tornado. No severe watch likely with these storms, though.

Discussion

[Texas Snowman]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning now out for parts of Archer and Clay Counties near Wichita Falls.

Other than a severe thunderstorm warning during the snowstorm that didn't materialize last month, I think that's the first such warning this year.

[TheAustinMan]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning now out for parts of Archer and Clay Counties near Wichita Falls.

Other than a severe thunderstorm warning during the snowstorm that didn't materialize last month, I think that's the first such warning this year.

I looked into the warning and I found out that the warnings associated with these new storms are the first severe thunderstorm warnings issued anywhere in Texas since January 3 (which extended into Louisiana) and the first issued by the NWS Norman office this year; the first severe thunderstorm warning issued today was only the second overall this year for the state.

[Ntxw]

Finally a severe thunderstorm! Lets hope these congeal into an MCS and dump lots of rain in the basins upstream.

[dhweather]

First SVR this year for FWD ?

[TheAustinMan]

First SVR this year for FWD ?

Yes, and before today there was only 1 SVR for the entire state for 2015.

[TheAustinMan]

There's a supercell over northeastern Mexico and near the Del Rio area that appears to be tornadic right now. Probably want to keep a close eye on this one.

[dhweather]

First SVR this year for FWD ?

Yes, and before today there was only 1 SVR for the entire state for 2015.

Second half of March to get there - wow.

Well, lets start the MCS cheer!!!!!

[weatherdude1108]

It's worth noting that the latest NAM/GFS runs are coming in line with the Euro rainfall amounts (3-4" generally) for south central Texas. This Nino-esque looking system certainly needs to be watched as we may be in a flash flood event overnight Friday into Saturday.

On the plus side we need the rain and hopefully it will dissuade all the hipsters in town for SXSW that "you don't want to move here because it rains a lot in March."

I echo that.

[dhweather]

There's a supercell over northeastern Mexico and near the Del Rio area that appears to be tornadic right now. Probably want to keep a close eye on this one.

Do our immigration laws allow for this? We don't need no steeeeenkin tornadoes.

[Texas Snowman]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning now out for parts of Archer and Clay Counties near Wichita Falls.

Other than a severe thunderstorm warning during the snowstorm that didn't materialize last month, I think that's the first such warning this year.

I looked into the warning and I found out that the warnings associated with these new storms are the first severe thunderstorm warnings issued anywhere in Texas since January 3 (which extended into Louisiana) and the first issued by the NWS Norman office this year; the first severe thunderstorm warning issued today was only the second overall this year for the state.

Hmmm. I was thinking that there was a severe thunderstorm warning during that crazy night in late February that we were all waiting for the rain to change over to snow. Guess not.

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like 1" to 2.5" (radar estimates) of rainfall has fallen so far tonight around the northern ends of Lake Ray Roberts and Lake Lavon.

And more storms are on the radar and moving in the direction of southern Cooke County, northern Denton County, southern Grayson County and northern Collin County.

Hopefully some good runoff starting to roll into those two lakes tonight!