SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

A. Tropical cyclone Pam.

B. 11/1032Z.

C. 11.1°S.

D. 169.4°E.

E. Mtsat.

F. T5.0/5.0/s0.0/24 hr.

G. Ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Tc has moved little in the last 12 hours. Embedded center in b yields a DT of 5.0. Pattern t and MET are 4.5. Final T based on DT.

I. Addl positions none.

$$

Reynes.

This was before the eye formed though

[Yellow Evan]

Thinking maybe 80-90 knot range atm

JTWC had this out 105. A little too high for my liking, I would have went with 95 knts at 0z.

Right now, I'd go 105-110 knts. Def not lower than 90 knots based on 5.0 from three agencies.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 MAR 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 11:12:13 S Lon : 170:03:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 956.0mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.2

Center Temp : -78.0C Cloud Region Temp : -84.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 141km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.8 degrees

Back to embedded pattern due to center fix off

[Yellow Evan]

JTWC 5.5

TPPS10 PGTW 111219

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM)

B. 11/1132Z

C. 11.48S

D. 169.72E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET AND PT
YIELD A 5.5. DBO PT, AS DT IS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[Yellow Evan]

What is the basis for their 115 knt intensity?

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 MAR 2015 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 11:14:47 S Lon : 170:09:46 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 956.0mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.2

Center Temp : -85.6C Cloud Region Temp : -83.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 141km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.0 degrees

[talkon]

Here is the latest RBTOP image, with the eye clearing out.



And here is the dvorak one.

[talkon]

TXPS21 KNES 111311
TCSWSP

A. 17P (PAM)

B. 11/1214Z

C. 11.4S

D. 169.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/WINDSAT/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...MG EYE EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS A DT OF 6.0
WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/0655Z 11.1S 169.8E WINDSAT
11/0720Z 11.0S 169.9E SSMIS
11/0747Z 11.0S 170.0E SSMIS
11/0831Z 11.0S 169.9E SSMIS


...VELASCO

This support 115 kt.

[Yellow Evan]

Starting to puzzle me why the eye hasn't cleared out. Maybe hit a dry slot?

[CrazyC83]

Based on that data, I would go with 105 kt right now, a bit lower than the Dvorak estimate.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 MAR 2015 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 12:01:53 S Lon : 170:12:21 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 930.7mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -28.6C Cloud Region Temp : -78.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 141km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.4 degrees

Still not too keen on going higher than 105 kt though, given the large, poorly defined eye which Dvorak sometimes overestimates.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPS41 PHFO 111730
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1730 UTC WED MAR 11 2015

A. Tropical cyclone Pam.

B. 11/1632Z.

C. 11.8°S.

D. 170.0°E.

E. Mtsat.

F. T6.5/6.5/d1.5/24 hr.

G. Ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Dg eye with W surrounding shade yields a data t-number of 6.5. Pattern t-number and model t-number agree.

I. Addl positions 11/1011Z 11.2°S 169.9°E amsu-b 10/1456Z 11.6°S 170.1°E amsu-b.

$$

[Yellow Evan]

WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 170.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.3S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.1S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.8S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.0S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 25.9S 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 33.3S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 170.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 30 NM RAGGED
EYE. AN 111534Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS EXTENSIVE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE LOCATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION AND PROVIDING
ROBUST OUTFLOW. TC PAM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140
KNOTS. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

The large size is playing a role in holding its intensity a bit. I remember some storms in the Atlantic with very large eyes and sprawling setups, the winds didn't mix down quite as efficiently.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking better IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 MAR 2015 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 12:18:47 S Lon : 169:56:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 928.4mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.4 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 141km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.2 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

FMS SSD ADT at 7.0:

2015MAR11 213200 6.5 917.6 +3.6 127.0 6.5 6.8 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -10.50 -79.16 EYE 15 IR N/A -12.28 -170.02 COMBO MTSAT2 32.3

[euro6208]

Awfully close to Vanuatu at peak intensity....

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2015 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 12:38:43 S Lon : 170:02:12 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 916.1mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -8.8C Cloud Region Temp : -78.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 150km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.5 degrees

Storm is huge already though! The size means a LONG nightmare for those islands...

[CrazyC83]

New Zealand really needs to watch this too. If this tracks any more to the right, it could be a hard hit for them.