SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

Levi Cowen (Tropical Tidbits) just posted a tweet comparing the GFS 30-hr and 54-hr forecasts for Pam. Goes from 932mb at 30hrs to 870mb in 24 hours with a very tiny eye.

[cycloneye]

Up to 85kts.

17P PAM 150310 1800 11.1S 170.1E SHEM 85 959

[Alyono]

EC now has a sub 900mb pressure

[CrazyC83]

Those islands would be in the RFQ? That would be cataclysmic for them.

[Yellow Evan]

Those islands would be in the RFQ? That would be cataclysmic for them.

I don't think the RFQ is the location of the strongest winds in the SHEM.

[cycloneye]

Updated up to 90kts.

17P PAM 150310 1800 11.1S 170.1E SHEM 90 956

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 11:11:52 S Lon : 170:02:44 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 973.6mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.0

Center Temp : -79.4C Cloud Region Temp : -88.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 150km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.8 degrees

[cycloneye]

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 170.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.0S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.9S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.1S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.7S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.9S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 27.7S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 35.6S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 170.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 699 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
WITH EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LOCATION IS BASED
ON A 101842Z SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TC PAM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNTIL THE SYSTEM EMBEDS IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 17P WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
ABOVE 29 CELSIUS. BEYOND TAU 48, TC PAM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS WHERE VWS WILL INCREASE AND SST BEGINS TO DROP
OFF. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU
96 AS IT EMBEDS IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

[Yellow Evan]

TXPS41 PHFO 102321
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2320 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015

A. Tropical cyclone Pam.

B. 10/2232Z.

C. 10.9°S.

D. 169.7°E.

E. Mtsat.

F. T5.0/5.0/d2.0/24 hr.

G. Vis/ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Cdo greater than 2.25 degrees yields a DT of 5.0. PT is 4.5 as is met. FT based on data t and used for CI.

I. Addl positions 10/1820Z 10.6°S 170.0°E windsat 10/1953Z 10.7°S 169.8°E ssmis.

$$

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2015 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 11:29:22 S Lon : 169:55:58 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 970.1mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 3.6

Center Temp : -80.9C Cloud Region Temp : -81.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 150km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.8 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

20150310 2332 -11.0 -169.6 T5.0/5.0 17P PAM

[CrazyC83]

Based on that data and the eye popping out, I would probably go with 95 kt right now.

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 21 issued 0125 UTC Wednesday 11 March 2015



17P PAM 150311 0000 11.0S 169.6E SHEM 100 948

[Yellow Evan]

What supports 100? SAB and CPHC are T5.0.

[euro6208]

Peak intensity higher at 145 knots.

[Crostorm]

animation

[euro6208]

What an amazing sight!

Pam, Nathan, and just recently upgraded Olwyn around the Australian Region...

We just had Haliba near Madagascar

and now...

the WPAC joining in on the fun with soon Bavi...

This mighty MJO means business...

When was the last time this occured?

[mrbagyo]

who's the record holder for size in this basin?, southern hemisphere?

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 MAR 2015 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 11:14:36 S Lon : 169:57:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 956.0mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -60.7C Cloud Region Temp : -84.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 141km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.7 degrees

Now the fun begins.

[Yellow Evan]

A while ago but:

TXPS21 KNES 110620
TCSWSP

A. 17P (PAM)

B. 11/0532Z

C. 11.0S

D. 169.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI

H. REMARKS...PAM SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN LATEST GMI
DATA BUT STILL CLOUD FILLED IN VIS/IR. 37GHZ/89GHZ COMPARISON INDICATES
SOME TILT TO SYSTEM WITH MID LEVEL CENTER A BIT FURTHER W BY ABOUT .1
DEGREE. CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN B FOR DT=5.0. MET=4.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20150311 0532 -11.0 -169.6 T5.0/5.0 17P PAM