2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[HURRICANELONNY]

Now cpc says were in a weak El Nino. Wierd as it may be. It's here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf

[cycloneye]

Now cpc says were in a weak El Nino. Wierd as it may be. It's here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf

We had all the details of the CPC El Nino Advisory at the ENSO Thread at Winter Forum

[HURRICANELONNY]

Now cpc says were in a weak El Nino. Wierd as it may be. It's here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf

We had all the details of the CPC El Nino Advisory at the ENSO Thread at Winter Forum

Oh. Didn't know that. Thanks

[Blown Away]

Does this weak El Niño mean it will likely carry into the hurricane season?

[Ntxw]

A lot will depend on the health of waves as they go off Africa. It's not just ENSO the overall configuration of SST's across the Pacific and Atlantic offer shear to the deep tropics. There are years like in 2004 where waves survived the trip up above the deep tropics and produced. There are years like the past couple where they look healthy as they move off Africa but then are quickly decimated and by the time they regenerate (if they are able to) it's too late. A few waves last year survived as they recurved quickly towards the vicinity of Bermuda and become majors. Basically find the favorable spot, let the waves cross it. If they can't make it, not much of a season. Vice versa.

[wxman57]

The March Euro seasonal forecast is in. Can't post the images yet as they're only released for those who pay for the ECMWF. Public images will be available around the 22nd of the month. Last year, the Euro predicted ACE of around 70 and that was pretty close. This year it's predicting ACE near 50. A total of 7 named storms with 4 hurricanes for 2015. Very dry across the Caribbean and MDR. Very high pressures across the deep tropics. Oh, and El Nino, too.

[cycloneye]

The March Euro seasonal forecast is in. Can't post the images yet as they're only released for those who pay for the ECMWF. Public images will be available around the 22nd of the month. Last year, the Euro predicted ACE of around 70 and that was pretty close. This year it's predicting ACE near 50. A total of 7 named storms with 4 hurricanes for 2015. Very dry across the Caribbean and MDR. Very high pressures across the deep tropics. Oh, and El Nino, too.

In other words a below average 2015 season coming up. 57 if you have those graphics somehow before the 22nd post them. But always those words "It only takes one" will apply here.

[wxman57]

Oh, I have the graphics, but they're not public yet so I can't post them.

Even if the Atlantic has switched to a less active cycle (not sure it has yet), there is still a hurricane risk. The last cool phase was from 1970-1994. Quite a few strong hurricanes struck the U.S. during that cool phase:

1970 - Cat 3 Celia hit the Texas coast
1972 - Agnes hit the FL panhandle then caused extensive flooding all up the East U.S. Coast
1974 - Cat 3 Carmen hit the mid LA coast
1975 - Cat 3 Eloise struck the FL Panhandle
1979 - Cat 4 Frederic struck the MS/AL border area and David grazed eastern Florida as a Cat 2 then hit Georgia
1980 - Allen, a HUGE Cat 5 multiple times struck the lower TX coast as a rapidly weakening Cat 3.
1983 - Cat 3 Alicia hit Galveston
1985 - Cat 3 Elena struck the mid Gulf coast
1988 - Cat 5 Gilbert struck the northern Yucatan - the second strongest Atlantic hurricane on record
1989 - Cat 4 Hugo struck the Carolinas
1991 - Cat 2 Bob struck New England
1992 - Cat 5 Andrew hit Florida and then LA as a Cat 3

[cycloneye]

Instability as of March 9 is way dry and if this continues the 2015 season will be.

[TheStormExpert]

Oh, I have the graphics, but they're not public yet so I can't post them.

Even if the Atlantic has switched to a less active cycle (not sure it has yet), there is still a hurricane risk. The last cool phase was from 1970-1994. Quite a few strong hurricanes struck the U.S. during that cool phase:

1970 - Cat 3 Celia hit the Texas coast
1972 - Agnes hit the FL panhandle then caused extensive flooding all up the East U.S. Coast
1974 - Cat 3 Carmen hit the mid LA coast
1975 - Cat 3 Eloise struck the FL Panhandle
1979 - Cat 4 Frederic struck the MS/AL border area and David grazed eastern Florida as a Cat 2 then hit Georgia
1980 - Allen, a HUGE Cat 5 multiple times struck the lower TX coast as a rapidly weakening Cat 3.
1983 - Cat 3 Alicia hit Galveston
1985 - Cat 3 Elena struck the mid Gulf coast
1988 - Cat 5 Gilbert struck the northern Yucatan - the second strongest Atlantic hurricane on record
1989 - Cat 4 Hugo struck the Carolinas
1991 - Cat 2 Bob struck New England
1992 - Cat 5 Andrew hit Florida and then LA as a Cat 3

Yes, and several of Florida's worst hurricanes(including Andrew) have been during inactive periods! IMO, the hurricanes/storms during inactive periods can be worse than those in active periods in terms of strength and intensity. Take Andrew for example.

[SouthDadeFish]

It seems increasingly likely that this season will feature below normal activity. But as wxman57 said, that doesn't mean you should let your guard down.

[wxman57]

Another factor to consider - the past:

Looking back through historical hurricanes, I’ve uncovered an interesting item regarding U.S. hurricane impacts in years ending in “5”. Every “5” season since 1915, with the sole exception of 1925, has featured at least one quite significant U.S. hurricane impact. What will this year’s “5” bring?

1915: Major hurricanes struck Galveston & SE LA, and a hurricane hit the FL Panhandle
1925: Quiet
1935: Great Labor Day Hurricane, Cat 4 grazed SE FL and a Cat 2 struck Miami
1945: Major hurricanes struck SE FL and the mid TX coast, Cat 1 hit north of Tampa and the Carolinas.
1955: Three hurricanes struck the East U.S. Coast
1965: Cat 3 Betsy struck south Florida then SE LA as a Cat 4
1975: Cat 3 Eloise struck FL Panhandle
1985: Cat 3 Elena struck Mississippi
1995: Cat 3 Opal struck the FL Panhandle
2005: Katrina, Rita, Wilma (need I say more?)
2015: ????

[cycloneye]

That is a very interesting fact 57. Let's see if this 2015 continue that sequence of 5.

[crownweather]

I went even further back to the 1850's (when official hurricane records began) and found the following from 1855 to 1895:

1855: Category 3 hurricane strike on SE Louisiana and Mississippi.

1865: Category 2 hurricane strike on upper Texas coast with another hurricane, a Cat 2, making impact on SE Florida.

1875: Category 3 hurricane strike on south Texas.

1885: Category 2 hurricane tracked along the coast from eastern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

1895: Quiet, but 2 close brushes with 2 different upper end Category 2 hurricanes - 1 near south Texas and another near SE Florida.

1905: Quiet.

[ninel conde]

this could easily be another 1982/83/1992, but without andrew. things even worse than last season. I wonder if water molecules will ever invade the deep tropics again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

thats even worse than last season. JB is honking about in close development again but that will be unlikely with the long wnw flow aloft, and yea i know, something odd can happen like last year but the wnw flow has basically shut down the GOM NORTH of 20n for quite some time now. its also the cause of sparse severe weather seasons lately and this season is off to a very slow start.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_5gDCIW8AAb0R-.png:large

yikes. that screams bone dry air, super high pressures and hair chopping shear over the deep tropics. i wonder if things will ever change.

[gatorcane]

The years ending in 5s argument is certainly interesting. For Florida in particular, years ending in 5s have generally not been good and considering this relatively long stretch of no serious impacts to Florida in nearly 10 years (since 2005, yeah another 5), you got to think our luck is going to run out sooner than later.

Even if Florida is spared, I would be really shocked if the U.S. is spared from a significant impact this year. Maybe the indicators are for little activity but little is not enough as all it takes is one system to form at the right time and in the right location to create serious problems.

[ninel conde]

The years ending in 5s argument is certainly interesting. For Florida in particular, years ending in 5s have generally not been good and considering this relatively long stretch of no serious impacts to Florida in nearly 10 years (since 2005, yeah another 5), you got to think our luck is going to run out sooner than later.

Even if Florida is spared, I would be really shocked if the U.S. is spared from a significant impact this year. Maybe the indicators are for little activity but little is not enough as all it takes is one system to form at the right time and in the right location to create serious problems.

anything can happen, but with the pattern of a huge eastern trof unrelenting i would say the record long streak of no US major landfalls will continue. of course, with this type of season if anything struggles onshore i would have to guess rain flooding from a stalled system would be what might happen this season.

[WPBWeather]

Its only barely mid March. Isn't it way, way, way too soon to "cancel" the season??

The years ending in 5s argument is certainly interesting. For Florida in particular, years ending in 5s have generally not been good and considering this relatively long stretch of no serious impacts to Florida in nearly 10 years (since 2005, yeah another 5), you got to think our luck is going to run out sooner than later.

Even if Florida is spared, I would be really shocked if the U.S. is spared from a significant impact this year. Maybe the indicators are for little activity but little is not enough as all it takes is one system to form at the right time and in the right location to create serious problems.

anything can happen, but with the pattern of a huge eastern trof unrelenting i would say the record long streak of no US major landfalls will continue. of course, with this type of season if anything struggles onshore i would have to guess rain flooding from a stalled system would be what might happen this season.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm expecting more of the same, maybe even a little less active, so 2013/2014 repeat. Remember however it only takes one, as my region learned from Arthur (our most damaging tropical system in over twenty years, or since Bob in 1991).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ninel conde]

Its only barely mid March. Isn't it way, way, way too soon to "cancel" the season??

The years ending in 5s argument is certainly interesting. For Florida in particular, years ending in 5s have generally not been good and considering this relatively long stretch of no serious impacts to Florida in nearly 10 years (since 2005, yeah another 5), you got to think our luck is going to run out sooner than later.

Even if Florida is spared, I would be really shocked if the U.S. is spared from a significant impact this year. Maybe the indicators are for little activity but little is not enough as all it takes is one system to form at the right time and in the right location to create serious problems.

anything can happen, but with the pattern of a huge eastern trof unrelenting i would say the record long streak of no US major landfalls will continue. of course, with this type of season if anything struggles onshore i would have to guess rain flooding from a stalled system would be what might happen this season.

not really. factors are even more negative than last season.