wxman57 wrote:It's over! It's finally over! Winter is over!
You want to do the "Bones" thing?
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wxman57 wrote:It's over! It's finally over! Winter is over!
utweather wrote:Longhornmaniac8 wrote:As much as I hate another bust, I think EWX ultimately did the right thing by issuing the WSW, and I was pleased to see that the school districts were proactive with their shutterings.
We were a degree or two away from a pretty considerable event here, and I think it's entirely unrealistic to expect a forecast office to be able to pinpoint an event this dynamic with that resolution. In this case, I'd much rather places err on the side of caution with protecting people.
As has been said by others, I don't envy those folks; they've been made to look like fools repeatedly this winter (and last winter, too, a couple of times), but we all know how nuanced these forecast packages are. They've tried over and over again to tightrope the forecast, understandably, and have somehow been burned every time.
For their sake, can't we just have a clear-cut winter event just once?
Epic fail on the school closings. Wait til morning or at the very least ice accumulation the night before. Good grief! Someone from the dfw give these guys some advice. This is either 2 years in a row or twice in the last 3 jumping the gun. Growing up in Dallas you had to wait til morning. Here the odds are even much much higher of nothing frozen. I woke up to sunshine and dry ground this morning. It was very nice day to do some yard work and stuff around the house, nice little chill but felt good. But no school, lol
Edit: I believe they cancelled the schools down before 6pm, yes that is correct 6pm. When it was cloudy and temps in the 40's maybe if that
Portastorm wrote:utweather wrote:Longhornmaniac8 wrote:As much as I hate another bust, I think EWX ultimately did the right thing by issuing the WSW, and I was pleased to see that the school districts were proactive with their shutterings.
We were a degree or two away from a pretty considerable event here, and I think it's entirely unrealistic to expect a forecast office to be able to pinpoint an event this dynamic with that resolution. In this case, I'd much rather places err on the side of caution with protecting people.
As has been said by others, I don't envy those folks; they've been made to look like fools repeatedly this winter (and last winter, too, a couple of times), but we all know how nuanced these forecast packages are. They've tried over and over again to tightrope the forecast, understandably, and have somehow been burned every time.
For their sake, can't we just have a clear-cut winter event just once?
Epic fail on the school closings. Wait til morning or at the very least ice accumulation the night before. Good grief! Someone from the dfw give these guys some advice. This is either 2 years in a row or twice in the last 3 jumping the gun. Growing up in Dallas you had to wait til morning. Here the odds are even much much higher of nothing frozen. I woke up to sunshine and dry ground this morning. It was very nice day to do some yard work and stuff around the house, nice little chill but felt good. But no school, lol
Edit: I believe they cancelled the schools down before 6pm, yes that is correct 6pm. When it was cloudy and temps in the 40's maybe if that
I would agree with your comments to some extent. Yes, the ideal mode of operation for ISDs should be to wait until 3-4 am to make the call. I'm not certain in this case why they all pulled the trigger the night before except for the fact that nearly every piece of guidance which forecasters use strongly showed a significant amount of ice and some sleet for Austin. The ISDs participate in a number of conference calls with officials within their district as well as NWS and/or private sector meteorologists. I know several private sector guys who thought our storm was "a lock." And those are guys who get paid by clients to forecast so if they're not very good, they don't stay in business long. So that's probably why everyone made the call the night before.
There's a lot that goes into these decisions and folks might be surprised at the level of complexity involved. A call for a school day really has to be made by 4 a.m. in order for bus drivers and school personnel to get the word and act accordingly. That's why there usually is a conference call at 3 a.m. with all the parties involved. And this time, they were only going on what weather professionals were telling them.
Perhaps they will learn from this episode. Hopefully they will because as someone peripherally involved in these decisions, I get tired of all the Monday Morning Quarterbacking. And you all know how I have, in the past, called certain actions (or inactions) by NWS in question. In this case I feel like they did the best they could with the tools they had. In fact, I even sent an email to the lead warning forecaster at EWX ... an email of support because it's easy for everyone to be a critic until you walk in their shoes.
wxman57 wrote:http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/itsdeadjimwinter2.jpg
Ntxw wrote:Don't sleep on phase 7 of MJO and EPO. I don't care what the models say currently, I wouldn't risk starting plants until April this year.
wxman57 wrote:It's over! It's finally over! Winter is over!
gboudx wrote:Thanks for the info Ntwx. Looks like I'll wait before planting my garden.
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