Texas Winter 2014-2015

[WeatherDuck]

35 in Taylor. Waiting for the precipitation.

[Portastorm]

35 in Taylor. Waiting for the precipitation.

Freezing temps quickly encroaching on Austin metro area. Now at or below freezing just west of Lakeway.

BTW, I wasn't buying into the HRRR just yet. Just wanted to mention it as it raised an eyebrow. Hopefully it's an outlier.

[Ralph's Weather]

I spent the afternoon wiring about the HRRR, but I do not see how it could verify. I think this is a case of some models not seeing what is coming out of Mexico. Everything I am seeing points to a major winter storm tonight and maybe into tomorrow.
My temp is 34 with rainfall this evening pushing towards 1.5". I could start seeing freezing rain by 10PM which no model foresaw and the storms keep coming as it cools.

[weatherdude1108]

The last WV loop I saw of this storm showed moisture coming into it from a source region down in the Pacific in a similar latitude to Guatemala and Costa Rica! Seems like that would help our overrunning chances (?).

[dhweather]

35 in Taylor. Waiting for the precipitation.

Freezing temps quickly encroaching on Austin metro area. Now at or below freezing just west of Lakeway.

BTW, I wasn't buying into the HRRR just yet. Just wanted to mention it as it raised an eyebrow. Hopefully it's an outlier.

I sincerely hope so, I REALLY hope the PWC mets get to see white stuff tonight/tomorrow. Way past due, it's TIME!

[Portastorm]

The last WV loop I saw of this storm showed moisture coming into it from a source region down in the Pacific in a similar latitude to Guatemala and Costa Rica! Seems like that would help our overrunning chances (?).

This isn't really one of those overrunning situations. This is a shortwave trough out west and a jet streak all moving west to east with copious amounts of low level moisture. But yes, water vapor looks like it's pumping a lot of moisture into the state.

Also, there seeing some lightning strikes out west near Rock Springs. I smell THUNDERSLEET!!

[dhweather]

ntxweathersoonr: The lift being generated across the Permian Basin & Trans-Pecos right now is insane #convective

[Parker_County1]

Started sleeting pretty good here (Weatherford) about 10 minutes ago. It's sticking to everything.

[jstroud]

Fwisd....closed Thursday

[JDawg512]

There's a steady stream of rain and thunderstorms well into northern Mexico as far as the radar reaches. I'm confident that we will get a good round. Temp is at 36 at my house. At this rate we are going to be at or below freezing when the storm system arrives.

[Texas Snowman]

Denison ISD closed tomorrow, roads getting iced over with sleet, accidents happening around town. Not a lot so far but enough to start slipping and sliding.

[Portastorm]

There's a steady stream of rain and thunderstorms well into northern Mexico as far as the radar reaches. I'm confident that we will get a good round. Temp is at 36 at my house. At this rate we are going to be at or below freezing when the storm system arrives.

EWX agrees with you ... that just backed the Winter Storm Warning up to 10 p.m. due to temps colder than anticipated. It was supposed to start at midnight.

[Shoshana]

Winter Storm Warning for Central Texas changes, sleet bumped from midnight to 10pm because of the faster temp drop

... Winter Storm Warning now in effect until noon CST Thursday...

* timing... Arctic air will continue to pour into the area tonight.
Freezing rain and sleet should begin around 10 PM and continue
into Thursday morning. Temperatures should rise above freezing
after noon Thursday.

* Main impact... freezing rain and sleet causing icing of 1/10 inch
and locally up to a quarter inch. This will make for icy roads
and hazardous driving conditions. Iced tree branches may break
in the strong gusty winds accompanying the storm system. Power
lines may become weighed down and fail from the higher ice
accumulations.

* Other impacts... sidewalks... decks... and other surfaces may be
difficult to walk on.

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Late season arctic front to bring likely the worst winter storm of the season to a large part of TX tonight/Thursday.

Arctic boundary is cutting SE TX in half this evening with College Station 39 and a N wind gusting to 37 while BUSH IAH is 73. Even better is heavy freezing rain mixed with sleet at Dallas with a temperatures of 31 and N wind gusting to 39. Lubbock was reporting heavy snow with zero visibility and N wind gusting of 40mph a few hours ago. Yet BUSH IAH did reach 81 today!

Front will move off the upper TX coast by 1100pm and onset the period of very strong winds across the area. Gusts tonight up to 45mph will be possible W of I-45 and along the entire coast line. Radar shows a large area of freezing rain and sleet over a good part of the TX Hilly Country and N TX. Expect the freezing line to get into our northern tier counties in the 400am-1000am time period Thursday morning with a light freezing/sleet mixture possible from Madisonville to Crockett. Little to no accumulation is expected on bridge or overpasses after reaching nearly 80 this afternoon. Expect the ice/sleet accumulation line to run from roughly just north of San Antonio to Giddings to Centerville. Some locations of the Hill Country into NE TX could see as much as .10-.25 of an inch of ice accumulation tonight and with the 40mph winds potential for widespread power disruption is moderate to high. Travel on US 290, I-45, and US 59 north of SE TX tonight into at least the first half of Thursday is strongly discouraged as road conditions will be extremely hazardous from both freezing rain and sleet accumulations. Anti-ice operations will be largely ineffective given the heavy nature of the precipitation expected overnight.

Most of SE TX will largely miss the impacts of this winter storm.

Note: Sea fog which has plagued the coast the last few days will be “blown” away by the incoming polar air with gale force conditions likely tonight/early Thursday over the NW Gulf waters. At least for the next few days we will not have to deal with any sea fog threat. This current cold air outbreak will only serve to chill the nearshore waters again and it is inevitable that the humid southern Gulf of Mexico air will return and with it the sea fog again.

[Portastorm]

Some good/interesting insights tonight from EWX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
914 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
OPTED TO MOVE UP THE START TIME OF THE WSW DUE TO REPORTS OF
FREEZING AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES NOTED ON LCRA HYDROMET AS
WELL AS SITES ALONG THE CWA BORDER WITH SJT. RADAR TRENDS ARE
INDICATING PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WITH THE RAIN...EVEN
RESULTING IN THUNDER. WHILE HI-RES MODELS SHOW THIS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DROPPING OFF AROUND 08-09Z...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
VERY NEAR FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA AND AT OR BELOW
IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. IF ANY ICING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THEN IT WOULD ACCUMULATE RATHER QUICKLY AS
RAIN RATES ARE UP TO A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...INDICATIONS ARE THIS MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY
SHOULD STAY MORE OR LESS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TEMPERATURES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA ARE STILL IN THE 40S AS OF 03Z AND SOME UPPER
30S IN THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF IT. SO SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
MIDNIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH.

OTHERWISE OVERALL IMPACTS ARE GENERALLY THE SAME EXPECTATIONS WITH
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY THE CASE FOR THE
WARNING AREA AND UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITH
HIGHER PRECIP RATES.

[weatherdude1108]

There's a steady stream of rain and thunderstorms well into northern Mexico as far as the radar reaches. I'm confident that we will get a good round. Temp is at 36 at my house. At this rate we are going to be at or below freezing when the storm system arrives.

Exactly what I was thinking.

[weatherdude1108]

The last WV loop I saw of this storm showed moisture coming into it from a source region down in the Pacific in a similar latitude to Guatemala and Costa Rica! Seems like that would help our overrunning chances (?).

This isn't really one of those overrunning situations. This is a shortwave trough out west and a jet streak all moving west to east with copious amounts of low level moisture. But yes, water vapor looks like it's pumping a lot of moisture into the state.

Also, there seeing some lightning strikes out west near Rock Springs. I smell THUNDERSLEET!!

Bring it!!

[TheProfessor]

That line of sleet is going to stick like glue here, especially with temps dropping into the 20s already. Weatherbug says 28 here, FWD has us at 29.

[weatherdude1108]

LISD and RRISD, and my work closed.

[iorange55]

That line of sleet is going to stick like glue here, especially with temps dropping into the 20s already. Weatherbug says 28 here, FWD has us at 29.

I just hope it is sleet. This freezing rain we have been getting is making me nervous. Too many trees in my neighborhood.