Texas Winter 2014-2015

[downsouthman1]

18Z RGEM appears to abruptly shut precip down by 6AM across the I-35 corridor but seems to really punch the area before that.

No dry slot in DFW?

Nope. Moderate snow at midnight. Then light snow/light sleet around 3AM.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z RGEM appears to abruptly shut precip down by 6AM across the I-35 corridor but seems to really punch the area before that.

No dry slot in DFW?

No, DFW looks to get 1" of sleet on the south side and 2" of snow on the north side. The dry slot seems to be over my house on it.

[TheProfessor]

33 here, and it looks like a band of ice just developed west of Weatherford.

[Brandon8181]

Just a little help please....

What does next to the NAM 32KM, 12KM, 4KM, mean?

And on the WRFit says ARW, and NMM?? What do those mean?

[Ralph's Weather]

It is nowcasting time and it looks good temperature wise and radar wise for me and all of Central, North and Northeast Texas, but the hi-res models sure do not look good. I am not sure what to expect tonight. I could wake up to light icing or 4" of snow and sleet.

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES STARTED MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WITHIN THE PAST 2 HOURS. AT 3 PM...THE FREEZING LINE WAS
NEAR A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO DECATUR TO ABILENE AND WE ARE GETTING
REPORTS OF A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS THE FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
WE EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
FREEZING LINE REACHES EACH LOCATION WITH A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
SLEET AFTER THAT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL HOLD ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW...SO MOSTLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING. BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH.

THE RAIN AND WINTRY MIX WILL NOT BE CONSTANT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A LARGE BREAK IS SORT
OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTIVE POCKETS OF SLEET AND
POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT IMPACT ALL
AREAS. WHERE CONVECTIVE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS IS WHERE WE
EXPECT THE HIGHEST ACCUMS OF SLEET AND/OR ICE...AND THUS THE
HIGHEST IMPACTS. THEREFORE...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT NOT EVERYONE
IN THE WARNING WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA....BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE EXACTLY THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IS THE MAIN
REASON FOR SUCH A BROAD WARNING.

PORTIONS OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM LAMPASAS TO WACO TO
ATHENS WERE CHANGED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING...AND
ACCUMULATIONS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED ACROSS THE REGION. NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT SOME OF THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET
TO OCCUR ALONG OR NEAR A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO ENNIS TO
COOPER. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THIS AREA MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORE
FREEZING RAIN WHICH WAS THE REASON FOR THE CHANGE TO A WARNING
ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL TEXAS. OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AS MUCH ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW AS
WAS FORECAST 12 HOURS AGO...BUT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO
TRAVEL...CAN STILL BE EXPECTED IN THESE COUNTIES. WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING OVERNIGHT...IT
IS LIKELY PARTS OF THE WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE NOON
EXPIRATION TIME.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY MIX...WE ALSO HAVE STRONG WINDS TO
CONTEND WITH. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING. NOT ONLY WILL THE STRONG WIND
PROVIDE A HAZARDOUS ELEMENT AGAINST ICE COATED SURFACES SUCH AS
POWER LINES...BUT IT WILL RESULT IN LOW WIND CHILL READINGS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
20S.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS
THE SUN FINALLY SHOWS IN THE SKY...BUT STAY IN THE 30S. IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME AREAS WILL BARELY REACH FREEZING WHERE LARGER
AMOUNTS OF SLEET/ICE OCCUR. BUT BASED ON THE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND CLEARING SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MELTING OF THE
ICE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY WATER/ICE STILL ON THE ROADS
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL REFREEZE AS TEMPS PLUMMET INTO
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARM UP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[downsouthman1]

It is nowcasting time and it looks good temperature wise and radar wise for me and all of Central, North and Northeast Texas, but the hi-res models sure do not look good. I am not sure what to expect tonight. I could wake up to light icing or 4" of snow and sleet.

Not sure exactly what you mean by "sure do not look good." For a large part of TX, the HRRR looks like a decent amount of convective-type precip will fall tonight.

[JDawg512]

Wind shift occured at 3:45 at my house, the temp before then was pushing 70 it is now dropping fast, 63 degrees. ... make that 62 degrees. Changing as I'm typing this.

[Brandon8181]

It is nowcasting time and it looks good temperature wise and radar wise for me and all of Central, North and Northeast Texas, but the hi-res models sure do not look good. I am not sure what to expect tonight. I could wake up to light icing or 4" of snow and sleet.

Not sure exactly what you mean by "sure do not look good." For a large part of TX, the HRRR looks like a decent amount of convective-type precip will fall tonight.

I sure don't like there discussion about "Southeast areas" not getting much

[South Texas Storms]

Just a little help please....

What does next to the NAM 32KM, 12KM, 4KM, mean?

And on the WRFit says ARW, and NMM?? What do those mean?

The 32, 12, and 4 km are the model grid spacing areas (or a square region that the model sees). The lower the number, the smaller the region, and the higher the model resolution as it's better able to capture topography and mesoscale features.

The ARW and NMM are two high resolution short range computer models.

[Brandon8181]

Just a little help please....

What does next to the NAM 32KM, 12KM, 4KM, mean?

And on the WRFit says ARW, and NMM?? What do those mean?

The 32, 12, and 4 km are the model grid spacing areas (or a square region that the model sees). The lower the number, the smaller the region, and the higher the model resolution as it's better able to capture topography and mesoscale features.

The ARW and NMM are two high resolution, short range computer models.

Thank you very much!

[CentralTxAggie]

and it has reached south Austin...winds up and temps/dew points dropping

[Ralph's Weather]

It is nowcasting time and it looks good temperature wise and radar wise for me and all of Central, North and Northeast Texas, but the hi-res models sure do not look good. I am not sure what to expect tonight. I could wake up to light icing or 4" of snow and sleet.

Not sure exactly what you mean by "sure do not look good." For a large part of TX, the HRRR looks like a decent amount of convective-type precip will fall tonight.

I meant how it dissipates things after midnight.

[downsouthman1]

It is nowcasting time and it looks good temperature wise and radar wise for me and all of Central, North and Northeast Texas, but the hi-res models sure do not look good. I am not sure what to expect tonight. I could wake up to light icing or 4" of snow and sleet.

Not sure exactly what you mean by "sure do not look good." For a large part of TX, the HRRR looks like a decent amount of convective-type precip will fall tonight.

I meant how it dissipates things after midnight.

Which model?

[Ralph's Weather]

Which model?

HRRR especially and RAP somewhat. Also watch how the HRRR decides to spite Smith county.

[downsouthman1]

Which model?

HRRR especially and RAP somewhat. Also watch how the HRRR decides to spite Smith county.

Luckily there are plenty of other models.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

It is nowcasting time and it looks good temperature wise and radar wise for me and all of Central, North and Northeast Texas, but the hi-res models sure do not look good. I am not sure what to expect tonight. I could wake up to light icing or 4" of snow and sleet.

Not sure exactly what you mean by "sure do not look good." For a large part of TX, the HRRR looks like a decent amount of convective-type precip will fall tonight.

I meant how it dissipates things after midnight.

I believe he's looking at 0Z and misinterpreting it as midnight, instead of 6am. Just a hunch, who knows?

29.8 degrees here in south Frisco, few ice pellets hitting the roof as I type. Some media downplaying this in DFW, of course when in doubt always go with Steve McCauley.

Good to be able to log back in, was locked out for a bit during the ice/snow storm last week. So I am frequently a one of the guests here, lol.

[Brent]

Looking at radar towards Mexico hard for me to see how DFW misses out...

About time to quit looking at models anyway and watch the radar.

[Tejas89]

Looks like some frozen precip moving into Tarrant county now. Mineral Wells reporting 32 and UP (likely ice pellets).

[Ralph's Weather]

I believe he's looking at 0Z and misinterpreting it as midnight, instead of 6am. Just a hunch, who knows?

29.8 degrees here in south Frisco, few ice pellets hitting the roof as I type. Some media downplaying this in DFW, of course when in doubt always go with Steve McCauley.

Good to be able to log back in, was locked out for a bit during the ice/snow storm last week. So I am frequently a one of the guests here, lol.

0Z is 6PM. on the 20Z HRRR watch the precip dissipate quickly between hours 11 and 12.
Models are all over the place with this storm so all we can do is watch the radar and temps.