Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

CYCLONE MIKE · #5621 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:57 am

Im shocked it shows it again for a lot of LA. Figured after yesterdays trend would be left with rain if anything, even the CMC started backing off. But still have to get euro on board before I believe what the gfs shows and even then... :cheesy:

#5622 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 12:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm afraid it looks like more cold rain with possibly a few sleet pellets for SE TX through south Louisiana on Thursday. Temperatures should be above freezing during the precipitation.

Don't you have your own thread to spew all of your heat loving nonsense in?! Quit stealing all of our hopes and dreams. :lol:

#5623 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:12 pm

Well it looks like the 12z GFS and the 18z GFS keep Baton Rouge in for a little bit of freezing rain/sleet. I can't believe how long it keeps insisting. Can we just get the Euro on board?

TideJoe · #5624 Postby **TideJoe** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:14 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Well it looks like the 12z GFS and the 18z GFS keep Baton Rouge in for a little bit of freezing rain/sleet. I can't believe how long it keeps insisting. Can we just get the Euro on board?

Not so sure the Euro has it's head in the game. It has a tropical cyclone in the gulf in 8 days.

#5625 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:45 pm

TideJoe wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:Well it looks like the 12z GFS and the 18z GFS keep Baton Rouge in for a little bit of freezing rain/sleet. I can't believe how long it keeps insisting. Can we just get the Euro on board?

Not so sure the Euro has it's head in the game. It has a tropical cyclone in the gulf in 8 days.

Good point. My fear is the mets and NWS offices won't give us any chance without the Euro on board. I just need enough of a chance for schools to close Thursday. lol

TideJoe · #5626 Postby **TideJoe** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:55 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
TideJoe wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:Well it looks like the 12z GFS and the 18z GFS keep Baton Rouge in for a little bit of freezing rain/sleet. I can't believe how long it keeps insisting. Can we just get the Euro on board?

Not so sure the Euro has it's head in the game. It has a tropical cyclone in the gulf in 8 days.

Good point. My fear is the mets and NWS offices won't give us any chance without the Euro on board. I just need enough of a chance for schools to close Thursday. lol

I won't defend the GFS because it has it's own problems, but it's been incredibly consistent for 3-4 days on this event.

#5627 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:29 pm

NWS has us at 34 Wednesday night with rain chances. Getting awfully close to at least a mention of something? Just a few more degrees colder...please.

#5628 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 12:32 am

The 00z GFS is warmer with less precip. Not looking good on this run. Not sure if I can hope for it to come back in the future runs since it doesn't seem to have a lot of support. If the GFS was going to begin to cave to the other models, now would be the time to start doing it little by little.

#5629 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:27 pm

I am surprised at the percentages being so high so far south. Are some of the models trending back to a better chance? I thought they were trending further and further away.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... babilities

Edit: I realized that map is for amount as little as .01, not .1 That makes a big difference, lol

#5630 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Mar 03, 2015 5:53 pm

The funny thing is this is what some of the models were showing about a week ago.

BigB0882 wrote:I am surprised at the percentages being so high so far south. Are some of the models trending back to a better chance? I thought they were trending further and further away.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_a ... babilities

Edit: I realized that map is for amount as little as .01, not .1 That makes a big difference, lol

#5631 Postby **BigB0882** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:38 pm

We actually have a little sleet mixed in with light rain right now outside Baton Rouge. Very little but I will count it as a winter weather event. Lol

Stormnut · #5632 Postby **Stormnut** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:40 pm

I was just in St Francisville
Sleeting pretty hard up that way at 31 degrees

CYCLONE MIKE · #5633 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 12:47 pm

Was just outside and have a mix of light rain and sleet in south Baton Rouge. First winter precip of the year :roll:

CajunMama · #5634 Postby **CajunMama** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 1:06 pm

Well phooey. Lafayette doesn't have squat :cry:

I have always believed the Atchafalaya Basin adds moisture back into a system that the plains between Lake Charles and Lafayette depletes. Y'all enjoy your wintery precip. I just have cold howling wind. :cold:

It's a good day to make Cajun Spaghetti. Spaghetti sauce made with a roux and has ground beef, fresh pork & green onion sausage, and chicken. That will warm me up good!!!

#5635 Postby **BigB0882** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 1:25 pm

You aren't missing anything. The sleet was barely mixed in where I was at, maybe a 20/80 ratio sleet to rain and it was just a drizzle anyway. If I had not gone outside at the right time I would have missed it.

Hurricane_Apu · #5636 Postby **Hurricane_Apu** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 1:35 pm

There was some very light snow near downtown Lafayette around noon. It wasn't mist, as I could watch the flakes settle on surfaces and melt. I'm guessing this was snow grains rather than true snowflakes, as we don't have a real snow profile. But the automated weather reports of "light snow" from here and New Iberia this morning may not have been totally bogus.

Still, I'm surprised how dry this system has been. The airmass has actually overperformed, with temperatures dropping steadily even during peak heating hours (in March!). I haven't seen anything more than drizzle and brief flurries all day. If there'd been heavier precip, things could have gotten very interesting...

Hurricane_Apu · #5637 Postby **Hurricane_Apu** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 2:09 pm

Now somewhat heavier precip has moved in... and it's all rain. Not surprising, since it's falling from above the warm nose while the snow earlier was coming from beneath it (the ceiling at that time was very low, < 1k).

KLFT is now reporting 33 (with a 28 dewpoint) so we may briefly drop to freezing and, at least technically, experience freezing rain (although it would only stick to a few elevated surfaces at this time of day with this sun angle.)

#5638 Postby **BigB0882** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 2:42 pm

Sleeting harder now in Baton Rouge. Temp keeps dropping, it seems.

Hurricane_Apu · #5639 Postby **Hurricane_Apu** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 3:04 pm

KLFT now down to 32, with light showers in the area (although they were not reporting precip at 2 PM).

LaBreeze · #5640 Postby **LaBreeze** » Thu Mar 05, 2015 3:30 pm

In Vermilion Parish, LA and have had sleet on and off for the last few hours and a few flurries mixed in after being out of electricity for four hours earlier this morning due to the wind knocking out a transformer. Electricity has been on but the wind is still kicking and sitting at 33 degrees.

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