Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

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Re: Re:

#5581 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Feb 24, 2015 12:31 am

LaBreeze wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:Wednesday is looking to be over an inch of QPF with temps in mid to upper 30s. Seriously? That is so depressing.

Just wondering - what is QPF? I'm not that up on terminology. Thanks in advance.


QPF stands for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, or the forecasted precipitation amounts.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5582 Postby timmeister » Tue Feb 24, 2015 10:16 am

Snow line had moved south a bit, but still not far enough for Hattiesburg to see any snow.

Image
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5583 Postby TideJoe » Tue Feb 24, 2015 1:35 pm

timmeister wrote:Snow line had moved south a bit, but still not far enough for Hattiesburg to see any snow.

Image



You never know what's going to happen when it comes to snow in the deep south. It's snowed several times since I've lived in the Burg (moved here in 2001) when the forecast didn't mention it until the last second. We've also had forecasts for significant snow (4+ inches) and barely got a dusting.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5584 Postby timmeister » Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:34 pm

TideJoe wrote:You never know what's going to happen when it comes to snow in the deep south. It's snowed several times since I've lived in the Burg (moved here in 2001) when the forecast didn't mention it until the last second. We've also had forecasts for significant snow (4+ inches) and barely got a dusting.


Your right, you never know what could happen. I remember watching the Sugar Bowl (LSU vs Illinois) on Jan. 1, 2002 and it started snowing at halftime. We had 3 1/2 inches the next morning. The last good snow we've had in the 'Burg was in 2010, we're overdue for a good dusting.
The latest map from the NWS in Jackson has changed again, Wintry Mix for Natchez, and 3 to 6 inches in the Greenville/Greenwood area in the north. Nothing for Hattiesburg but a cold rain. :cry:

Image
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5585 Postby TideJoe » Tue Feb 24, 2015 7:17 pm

timmeister wrote:
TideJoe wrote:You never know what's going to happen when it comes to snow in the deep south. It's snowed several times since I've lived in the Burg (moved here in 2001) when the forecast didn't mention it until the last second. We've also had forecasts for significant snow (4+ inches) and barely got a dusting.


Your right, you never know what could happen. I remember watching the Sugar Bowl (LSU vs Illinois) on Jan. 1, 2002 and it started snowing at halftime. We had 3 1/2 inches the next morning. The last good snow we've had in the 'Burg was in 2010, we're overdue for a good dusting.
The latest map from the NWS in Jackson has changed again, Wintry Mix for Natchez, and 3 to 6 inches in the Greenville/Greenwood area in the north. Nothing for Hattiesburg but a cold rain. :cry:

Image


I remember the 2002 event well (and the 2010 event). I went to bed on January 1st 2002 thinking a few flakes would fall and woke up to 3+ inches on the ground. All it would take to change our fortunes is a couple degrees cooler and some help from dynamic cooling. I think it was 2010 when we woke up to a good dusting that wasn't even forecasted (supposed to get cold rain). It didn't last long but it was fun for the kids.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5586 Postby georgia_tech_swagger » Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:41 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
415 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TRACK QUICKLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES AND
THE TEMPERATURE COOLS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW IS LIKELY TO
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS BY THE AREA. THE HEAVY
SNOW WILL MOVE EAST AND TAPER OFF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF WHERE
THE DIVISION BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE SITUATED WHICH COULD
BE SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE. THEREFORE...A WINTER
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ELBERT...ABBEVILLE AND
GREENWOOD COUNTIES.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>010-012>014-250515-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0012.150224T2300Z-150225T1700Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0004.150225T2100Z-150226T1200Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-LAURENS-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...
MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
ROYSTON...LAVONIA...FRANKLIN SPRINGS...CANON...HARTWELL...
REED CREEK...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...CROSSNORE...
SUGAR MOUNTAIN...BETHLEHEM...TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...
STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...
HOT SPRINGS...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...
NEWTON...ST. STEPHENS...SALISBURY...ROBBINSVILLE...CULLOWHEE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH...SHELBY...
KINGS MOUNTAIN...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...
KANNAPOLIS...MONROE...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...TRINITY...
WALHALLA...WESTMINSTER...NINE TIMES...PUMPKINTOWN...
ROCKY BOTTOM...CAESARS HEAD...CLEVELAND...GOWENSVILLE...
MARIETTA...TIGERVILLE...SENECA...EASLEY...CLEMSON...GREENVILLE...
TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG...
GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...LAURENS...CLINTON...UNION...
CHESTER...GREAT FALLS
415 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...FOR MOST OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE.

* HAZARDS...BLACK ICE ON ROADS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON HIGHWAYS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY THAT WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...BLACK ICE SHOULD MELT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND
SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE WESTERN UPSTATE
OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE 3 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.


* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW ON HIGHWAYS.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND 30 OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE MILE IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$
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#5587 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Feb 24, 2015 10:16 pm

Yes, a pretty good winter storm setting up late tonight into tomorrow along the I-20 corridor and then later along the I-85 corridor across North AL, North GA and later on Wednesday into early Thursday across the Piedmont into the Carolinas. 3-6 inches potentially forecast across those regions. Birmingham, Atlanta and Charlotte metro areas could get decent amounts, depending upon where that deformation zone sets up. 25-50 miles either way can make a huge difference on where the heaviest snow totals occur.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5588 Postby Hammy » Wed Feb 25, 2015 7:54 pm

Here in north Georgia around Winder, it looks like once again they severely overestimated the snow totals, we're supposed to get 2-4 inches overnight, meanwhile not one model shows overnight snow anywhere closer than 25 miles north, and the snow line if anything seems to be moving further and further north as the night goes on.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5589 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:51 pm

Hammy wrote:Here in north Georgia around Winder, it looks like once again they severely overestimated the snow totals, we're supposed to get 2-4 inches overnight, meanwhile not one model shows overnight snow anywhere closer than 25 miles north, and the snow line if anything seems to be moving further and further north as the night goes on.


We have close friends in Cumming, GA. that got plenty of snow or at least enough to make good snow angels. The pics they posted showed snow covering the ground but I don't know what the prediction was for them.
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#5590 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:02 pm

Down here we got 3 1/4 inches of cold rain, not bad since the forecast was only 1-2 inches. :) It was about 39-41 degrees the whole time it rained...I wish it could have been cold enough for snow. :(
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5591 Postby TideJoe » Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:48 am

12Z GFS teasing us with a major winter weather event starting around 120 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5592 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:52 pm

Very interesting, that is not far off for the GFS. Does it have any other support? Would appear to be quite the ice storm for the south all the way to the coast. I didn't even think we would see freezing again this winter so I wonder how accurate this is.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5593 Postby TideJoe » Fri Feb 27, 2015 1:34 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Very interesting, that is not far off for the GFS. Does it have any other support? Would appear to be quite the ice storm for the south all the way to the coast. I didn't even think we would see freezing again this winter so I wonder how accurate this is.


Canadian is nearly identical, just a little slower. I don't know where to look at the euro.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0
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#5594 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:24 pm

Just saw the weather on our local news. The meteorologist mentioned that the temps listed for Thursday (high of 52) may be colder than they are currently showing and he said that winter weather may enter parts of the state. He didn't specifically say Baton Rouge had to worry but the fact he even mentioned it at all is interesting to me. The 18z GFS is rolling so I am curious how that run comes out. I would love if it trended colder AND wetter but that is like winning the lottery around here.
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Re:

#5595 Postby TideJoe » Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:48 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Just saw the weather on our local news. The meteorologist mentioned that the temps listed for Thursday (high of 52) may be colder than they are currently showing and he said that winter weather may enter parts of the state. He didn't specifically say Baton Rouge had to worry but the fact he even mentioned it at all is interesting to me. The 18z GFS is rolling so I am curious how that run comes out. I would love if it trended colder AND wetter but that is like winning the lottery around here.


18Z still has significant frozen precip but the freeze line moved a little north and it's a little slower like the CMC. I think we definitely have a storm in the makings, but how far south the cold air gets while the precip is still falling is the question. Could be a potential severe weather event as well.
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#5596 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:57 pm

The 18z is only showing about .1 of precip during freezing temps whereas the 12z had closer to .3 or so (this is for Baton Rouge). So definitely not trending wetter but at least it is still showing something. If it is still there on Monday then I will become really interested. Maybe for once this can trend in a GOOD direction for us.
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Re: Re:

#5597 Postby LaBreeze » Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:16 pm

TideJoe wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:Just saw the weather on our local news. The meteorologist mentioned that the temps listed for Thursday (high of 52) may be colder than they are currently showing and he said that winter weather may enter parts of the state. He didn't specifically say Baton Rouge had to worry but the fact he even mentioned it at all is interesting to me. The 18z GFS is rolling so I am curious how that run comes out. I would love if it trended colder AND wetter but that is like winning the lottery around here.


18Z still has significant frozen precip but the freeze line moved a little north and it's a little slower like the CMC. I think we definitely have a storm in the makings, but how far south the cold air gets while the precip is still falling is the question. Could be a potential severe weather event as well.

Potential severe weather event is about the only thing that might make sense to me - who knows?
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5598 Postby timmeister » Sat Feb 28, 2015 2:54 pm

GFS has been pretty consistent since the Friday 12Z except for precip amounts.

Here is Saturday's 12Z GFS. Looks like freezing rain/sleet for Hattiesburg. It's such a beautiful day today, I've been out working in the yard. It's 65 degrees with clear skies and abundant sunshine. I doubt we will get nothing more than rain Wednesday night and Thursday. The GFS has been wrong all winter.

Image
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5599 Postby windnrain » Sat Feb 28, 2015 4:22 pm

Weatherunderground officially has us getting ice pellets here in Baton Rouge.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5600 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Feb 28, 2015 5:55 pm

I doubt we will get nothing more than rain Wednesday night and Thursday. The GFS has been wrong all winter.


I agree. I bet anything by Monday morning the gfs either drops the precip, just like it did for us for tomorrow and last weekend or loses the cold, just like it has done all winter. And before anyone uses the argument its less than a week out, it has shown numerous cold snaps happening this month in the less than 5-7 day timeframe and we just received a few light freezes at best.
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