#9 Postby euro6208 » Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:21 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 148.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF
CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED,
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 120352Z
NOAA-19 IMAGE INDICATES WEAK, FRAGMENTED SHALLOW BANDING WITH LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF AN ORGANIZED LLCC. A RECENT PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER IMAGE
SUPPORTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH CONVERGENT NORTHERLY FLOW FUELING
THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK INDICATE SLP NEAR 1005 MB WITH A
STEADY PRESSURE TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND
BROAD LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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