2015 WPAC Season

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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#61 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:09 pm

ManilaTC wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Higos sounds to be our next monster!! :double:


Could happen since all models sayin no development until the first week of february and that would allow the ocean to get even warmer...


February and March... the end of the NE Monsoon and the start of the EASTERLIES. Not good for TC development.


Never say never when it comes to the wpac. This area is the craziest of all basins anything can happen...
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#62 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jan 24, 2015 6:49 am

euro6208 wrote:
Never say never when it comes to the wpac. This area is the craziest of all basins anything can happen...

As Clark said, conditions are not conducive. It doesn't matter if "never say never" comes to place in the WPAC, the craziest of all basins.... I was just giving a guess, that's all. That was my point in the post...
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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#63 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:31 am

Interesting...GFS was hinting of Higos development south of Guam but has since disappeared...
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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#64 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 24, 2015 10:55 am

The Marianas with the U.S territory of Guam has five conditions of typhoon readiness, often referred to as TCCOR

* TCCOR 4 -- Normal Operations -- This means that sustained winds of 50 knots (58 mph) or greater from a tropical typhoon are possible within the next 72 hours.

* TCCOR 3 -- Caution -- This means sustained winds of 50 knots (58 mph) or greater from a typhoon are possible in the next 48 hours. At this point you should inventory your home emergency kit and replace any and all missing items as necessary. Fill up your vehicles, generators, and extra gas cans with gasoline. Secure outside objects -- move items indoors that can't be secured. Prepare your household for long term power and water loss (laundry, outdoor cooking, clear refrigerator). Tune in to your radio or TV. It is worth noting here that the island of Guam powers down before being hit by a typhoon, so be sure to have a hand-crank radio on hand for outside information.

* TCOR 2 -- Caution -- This means sustained winds of 50 knots (58 mph) from a typhoon are possible in the next 24 hours. Close and secure shutters, place rags and towels around the base of windows and doors. Fill containers with water (bathtub, clean pails, trash cans, washing machine, etc.). Remove furniture and carpets away from areas where water may come in. Expecting mothers 38 weeks or in high risk pregnancies should report to the hospital. Move your vehicles to a secure and protected area. Pack your freezer with containers full of water to be used as ice or thawed for drinking.

* TCCOR 1 -- Caution -- Sustained winds of 50 knots (58 mph) or greater from a typhoon are possible in the next 12 hours. Go inside your home and stay there. Only essential and emergency personnel are allowed outside.

* TCCOR 1 -- Emergency -- Sustained winds of 50 knots (58 mph) or greater from a typhoon are observed to occur or are on Guam. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE. Wait for the storm to pass and for threat conditions to return to TCCOR 4. Be ready to help with recovery and cleanup.

The National Weather Service Guam of NOAA takes control of this region and warns on tropical cyclones threatening Micronesia...
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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#65 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:56 am

Hinting Higos next month...06Z hinting more activity with lots of LPA's...

00Z GFS

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06Z GFS

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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#66 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:14 pm

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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#67 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:33 am

Strongest run yet from future Higos...so far only GFS is seeing development...

It develops south of Palau then steadily intensifies to a typhoon striking Northern Mindanao...MJO has it's support...

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Very long range showing a line of LPA's (1000mb southeast of Guam, possible Bavi?) along the monsoon trough...The MJO should be around our area and strengthening at this time...

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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#68 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 28, 2015 7:10 pm

Higos will be sure interesting if it forms. Equator forming storm east of Morotai, passes east of Pantai Bantik (Places i never heard of before) and makes landfall in the Davao Gulf as a typhoon...18Z is slightly a bit north from the previous run as it had landfall in Davao Del Sur...

That's not it...GFS is hinting at 2 more developments in the Philippine sea but long range...

When was the last time these places got hit? I know Bopha and Washi came close but hit further north in Mindanao...
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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#69 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 29, 2015 5:18 am

Typhoon Higos

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Developing *Bavi*

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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#70 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 29, 2015 7:28 am

Maybe a recurve for Higos?

Fujiwhara with Bavi over Guam...

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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#71 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 29, 2015 7:34 am

CMC joins GFS but further east...

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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#72 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:13 am

GFS has been consistent in developing twin storms...

One east of Mindanao and the other south of Guam. It has Higos stalled right off the coast of Mindanao for 2 days! Huge flood potential here. It then tracks backwards to the east while intensifying...

Doesn't do much with Bavi, just a weak tropical storm and weakening south of Guam...

Development in +200 hours...
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#73 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:51 am

Very consistent

If it actually pans out then my prediction on Higos won't come true :lol:

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Makes landfall over Mindanao and follows a Washi-like intensity and track

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But before all those, it strengthens dramatically to about 60-75 kts before turning SW approaching Palau and the Philippines :eek:

Image
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#74 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:57 am

Here's to calm down my excitement - my preliminary forecast for the season

23/15/6

I am thinking of a season like 2003, which IMO is an analog for this year.... Warm ENSO (or at least Warm Neutral), Warm PDO.. Possibly another big season for Guam, Japan and the Philippines with numerous landfalls and impacts....
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#75 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:58 am

Models coming in agreement in developing Higos...

NAVGEM

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GEM

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ECMWF

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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#76 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:00 am

That is quite a small midget like typhoon very close to Guam and GFS still seeing twins...

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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#77 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:11 am

ECMWF

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CMC

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NAVGEM

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GFS no longer showing twins...

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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#78 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 02, 2015 12:23 am

Latest GFS has a midget typhoon about 100 miles east of Guam...
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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#79 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 02, 2015 6:53 am

NWS GUAM

MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...IS BRINGING THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KOSRAE
IN EASTERN MICRONESIA TO SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS ON FRIDAY AND
THEN TRACKING IT SOUTH OF GUAM OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE
MAINTAINED CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY
BUT LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL FORECAST FOR WINDS.
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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#80 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 02, 2015 7:14 am

Image

South of Kosrae
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