Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

Winter Weather Discussion

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LaBreeze
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Re: Re:

#5441 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:52 am

Stormcenter wrote:It's going to get very cold again. IMO


BigB0882 wrote:From what I have gathered, the cold is going to stay bottled up more to the northeast but I don't know about over in Georgia. Someone else will have to chime in. I assume no news = no cold.

What's your take on this, Stormcenter? When do you feel it will be very cold again?
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Not an official forecast by any means.

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#5442 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:12 pm

:uarrow: There is a possiblity we may see a longwave trough deepen across the Eastern CONUS within the next 8-10 days. EURO has been hinting at this in the long range runs for the past couple of days. A few of us has been discussing this possibility on the Florida Weather thread, and a bit of run to run consistency is starting to show about this. Now, how much colder it will get is another story. The 12Z EURO earlier today going out 192 hours depicts a longwave trough developing, but without a -NAO, the core of the arctic air stays bottled up well north up in Canada.

It's still too soon for some people with thoughts on the forum about winter canceled posts. As I discussed in the Florida thread, we still have a good 4-6 weeks left in the meteorological winter still ahead. That is still decent amount of time for a decent discharge of an arctic intrusion to come south from Mother Nature. Heck, we have had arctic air masses into the early portions of March (i.e. Superstorm of 1993 8-))

I would probably be inclined to think that we will have at least one more gold cold event sometime between now through about the middle of February. It never fails it seems each winter we get preety good cold snaps to occur during this period.
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#5443 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:18 pm

What is going on with the -NAO or whatever? I thought for once the models were sure it was going negative. Those forecasts seem to be the least reliable, even in the short term.
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SeGaBob

Re:

#5444 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Jan 21, 2015 4:34 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: There is a possiblity we may see a longwave trough deepen across the Eastern CONUS within the next 8-10 days. EURO has been hinting at this in the long range runs for the past couple of days. A few of us has been discussing this possibility on the Florida Weather thread, and a bit of run to run consistency is starting to show about this. Now, how much colder it will get is another story. The 12Z EURO earlier today going out 192 hours depicts a longwave trough developing, but without a -NAO, the core of the arctic air stays bottled up well north up in Canada.

It's still too soon for some people with thoughts on the forum about winter canceled posts. As I discussed in the Florida thread, we still have a good 4-6 weeks left in the meteorological winter still ahead. That is still decent amount of time for a decent discharge of an arctic intrusion to come south from Mother Nature. Heck, we have had arctic air masses into the early portions of March (i.e. Superstorm of 1993 8-))

I would probably be inclined to think that we will have at least one more gold cold event sometime between now through about the middle of February. It never fails it seems each winter we get preety good cold snaps to occur during this period.



I wasn't born until 1995, so I don't know what that was like.

I have read about it, but it's not the same as witnessing it.
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#5445 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:48 pm

The 18Z GFS is more promising for cold and snow, but I bet it probably won't show that in the next run. :roll:
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#5446 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:25 pm

:uarrow: Well SeGaBob, the March 1993 Superstorm ranks for me as the most extreme weather event I have ever experienced, and that's saying a lot. It is probably that way with many folks, especially in the Deep South. But it was that incredible! I rank it at the top because that system dynamically was so potent and massive. We had it all here across the Florida peninsula, including an incredible intense squall line just ahead of the strong cold front moving in from the eastern GOM which produced a widespread tornado outbreak across the peninsula. This storm also bought in a storm surge of about 12 feet over in the Apalachee Bay region of the Big Bend of Florida, causing coastal flooding in that area. Then the arctic air rushed in rapidly behind the rapidly intensifying storm bringing blizzard conditions in the Deep South and snow all the way down into North Florida, including here in Jax. It's too much to put in one post regarding that monster storm here, but trust me, it was the wildest, most amazing extreme weather event I have ever experienced in terms of getting both extremes, that is severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and then arctic cold, wind chills in the teens and snow all within 12-24 hours!
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Re:

#5447 Postby timmeister » Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:55 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Well SeGaBob, the March 1993 Superstorm ranks for me as the most extreme weather event I have ever experienced, and that's saying a lot. It is probably that way with many folks, especially in the Deep South. But it was that incredible! I rank it at the top because that system dynamically was so potent and massive. We had it all here across the Florida peninsula, including an incredible intense squall line just ahead of the strong cold front moving in from the eastern GOM which produced a widespread tornado outbreak across the peninsula. This storm also bought in a storm surge of about 12 feet over in the Apalachee Bay region of the Big Bend of Florida, causing coastal flooding in those region. Then the arctic air rushed in rapidly behind the rapidly intensifying storm bringing blizzard conditions in the Deep South and snow all the way down into North Florida, including here in Jax. It's too much to put in one post regarding that monster storm here, but trust me, it was the wildest, most amazing extreme weather event I have ever experienced in terms of getting both extremes, that is severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and then arctic cold, wind chills in the teens and snow all within 12-24 hours!


I remember that storm! Even though the snow total map I'm posting doesn't show it, I was living in Bogalusa, Louisiana at the time and we had 6 inches of snow. That was the most snow I had seen in Louisiana since the 1988 storm when it snowed 6 inches in Baton Rouge and paralyzed the whole city. I was living in Denham Springs during the 1988 storm and I remember the snow accumulating on the interstate.

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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5448 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Jan 21, 2015 11:03 pm

Breaking news for deep south!!!

Gfs has yet another 10-12 day cat5 super storm blizzard for us again. Think this makes 5 or 6 so far in this amazing record breaking winter. Just a matter of time before the euro comes around showing us getting buried in 12" of snow. Better hurry up and check it out cause it will be all melted tomorrow and back in the 60-70's by early next week. :froze: :roflmao:
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#5449 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jan 21, 2015 11:09 pm

You talking about the 18z? It has a decent snow storm all the way to the coast way way back, in about the 16 day time period. Has a close call in about the 10-12 day period, as you mention. Will the 00z hold onto at least one of them? lol
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5450 Postby timmeister » Wed Jan 21, 2015 11:33 pm

Yep, 18z GFS. If only it would really happen, but I highly doubt it.

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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5451 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:05 am

Well, ( The OZ holds suit ) and the fantasy continues, for at least another 6 hours! Two runs in a row and counting? This looks mighty interesting! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model
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#5452 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:18 am

It looks like the 6z finally came to its senses. No snow. Who is shocked?!
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Re:

#5453 Postby timmeister » Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:26 pm

BigB0882 wrote:It looks like the 6z finally came to its senses. No snow. Who is shocked?!


Don't count it out just yet, the 12Z is showing a low in the gulf that will track up the east coast. All we need is some cold air to go with all the moisture.

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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5454 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 22, 2015 12:34 pm

This storm looks big for somebody... who is the question

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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#5455 Postby TideJoe » Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:29 am

This looks pretty awesome, but I'm sure it'll go poof in a run or too.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=254
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#5456 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:24 am

What am i looking at on that link? Not working on my phone. What does it show?
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#5457 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:06 am

:uarrow: It shows snow from the northern 1/2 of Texas stretching through close to where you live, coming all the way over where I live, and to the southern SC coast. I'm doubtful it will happen though... but it is within 10 days.
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Re:

#5458 Postby TideJoe » Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:09 am

BigB0882 wrote:What am i looking at on that link? Not working on my phone. What does it show?


Lots of snow through Texas, LA, and MS headed toward AL and GA.
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#5459 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:29 pm

Well that run of the NAM is still a little too far north for my liking. I always assume the outer fringes of the snow will not happen since the algorithms are just not very good. It looks like a northern Louisiana event but maybe it could trend south. The other problem is that I think the GFS and the Euro have trended away from this event with much warmer temps.
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#5460 Postby SeGaBob » Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:14 pm

Well, the Weather Channel's 10 day forecast has rain and snow for my area on the night of February the 1st... I really doubt it will happen though.
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