2014 TCRs

galaxy401 · #21 Postby **galaxy401** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:49 pm

Hurricane Norbert is out. Expect the number of reports to increase now that the season is over.

#22 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Dec 02, 2014 1:13 am

Norbert peaked at 110 kt, pressure of 950.

#23 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:13 pm

Two more EPAC reports today: Trudy and Iselle (the latter is incomplete as CPAC data is not yet in).

Peak intensity of Trudy raised to 55 kt (still a bit conservative IMO due to the well-defined eye, I would have gone with 60 kt).

galaxy401 · #24 Postby **galaxy401** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:31 pm

I haven't seen them not include a hurricane's CPAC data before. They still have the CPAC in best track.

#25 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 2:15 pm

galaxy401 wrote:I haven't seen them not include a hurricane's CPAC data before. They still have the CPAC in best track.

Correct, but that was based on the preliminary BT.

Genevieve IMO will probably be last since it has to incorporate JMA/JTWC data as well.

Hammy · #26 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:21 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092014_Hanna.pdf

Hanna out, track shifted northward for second phase, pretty much where everyone on the forum thought it was.

Cainer · #27 Postby **Cainer** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:59 pm

Bertha and Fay both out. Bertha stays the same, Fay bumped up to 70kt/983mb with a landfall intensity of 70kt/984mb. Also the first hurricane to make landfall on Bermuda since 1987... Followed by Gonzalo 5 days later. The report also mentions that it will be difficult to differentiate damage caused by Fay to that caused by Gonzalo as well.

#28 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 5:08 pm

Going through the reports now. I'd have gone a little higher for Fay after seeing those reports, wondering perhaps if it was stronger over water. Also the high gusts are noteworthy as well, even if they are a bit elevated. I'd have gone with 75 kt for the intensity. None of that data was available in real time though, just the Bermuda Airport which had 51 kt (10-min) winds.

Fay reminded me of some other storms that were poorly prepared for and did more damage than expected, such as Katrina in Florida and Tomas in the Windward Islands.

#29 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:50 pm

Odile has just been released.

Peak intensity: 120 kt, pressure 918mb (just before the Recon flight)

Landfall intensity: 110 kt, pressure 941mb (based on Josh Morgerman's data)

galaxy401 · #30 Postby **galaxy401** » Sat Dec 20, 2014 12:07 am

Odile's pressure now has it tied for Marie for 6th most intense hurricane in the EPAC (Marie's pressure might still change though).

#31 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:53 pm

Edouard now available. Peak intensity 105 kt (seems reasonable based on wind observations), also makes numerous mentions of the Global Hawk runs that were taken.

Hammy · #32 Postby **Hammy** » Wed Jan 14, 2015 8:54 pm

Interesting, my theory on the intensity based on satellite/timing of wind measurements seems correct. 105 kts prior to the plane getting there.

#33 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:53 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP192014_Simon.pdf

Simon released. No major changes. Interesting about its peak intensity, it collapsed quickly because SST's dropped below 22C.

#34 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:09 pm

Gonzalo TCR released. One significant change was that it was a hurricane BEFORE Antigua as we thought, not after, as surface data supports 65-70 kt.

The Bermuda landfall intensity of 95 kt appears reasonable based on surface data. I'd have given some extra weight to the SFMR and the ADT at peak intensity, though, and gone with a 130 kt peak intensity.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082014_Gonzalo.pdf

#35 Postby **Andrew92** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:29 pm

Rachel is also out.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP182014_Rachel.pdf

-Andrew92

#36 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:51 pm

Arthur now out and Bertha updated. Not a lot of changes.

The 85 kt landfall intensity seems reasonable for Arthur (higher SFMR readings operationally were biased too high, and the dropsondes don't seem representative). I believe the Canada data is 10-min sustained though, so I would have kept Arthur at hurricane intensity longer, right up to becoming XT (and at 1200Z and 1800Z as well on July 5).

#37 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:53 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL012014_Arthur.pdf - Arthur

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP122014_Lowell.pdf - Also EPAC Lowell released.

Hammy · #38 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Feb 03, 2015 6:10 pm

A bit odd that Cristobal and Dolly aren't out yet given the relatively minimal impacts.

#39 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:17 pm

Hammy wrote:A bit odd that Cristobal and Dolly aren't out yet given the relatively minimal impacts.

Not sure why? I know some in the EPAC like Genevieve are likely awaiting data from other agencies (Genevieve will be last I think, since it requires CPHC, JTWC and JMA collaboration).

#40 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Feb 10, 2015 12:08 pm

Marie released, no changes.

Remaining: Cristobal, Dolly, Douglas, Genevieve and Sixteen-E. Also the CPAC reports are still outstanding as well.

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