2015 EPAC Season

[TheStormExpert]

Great! New GFS, new problems.

[Yellow Evan]

Good news or ad news first?

Good news? The first phantom storm is gone?

Bad news? GFS develops another phantom EPAC system by Day 8.

[Kingarabian]

So the activity from the 2014 season was alluded to the PDO being positive?

Cause we didn't really have an El-Nino, certainly not in the atmosphere.

[Yellow Evan]

So the activity from the 2014 season was alluded to the PDO being positive?

Cause we didn't really have an El-Nino, certainly not in the atmosphere.

For spurts, we did. A combination of record SST's, favorable QBQ, PDO, and ENSO all helped 2014.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at the QBQ pattern so far, it doesn't appear that 2015 will be as active in terms of 2014, but it could still be quite busy in terms of NS count.

[Kingarabian]

Looking at the QBQ pattern so far, it doesn't appear that 2015 will be as active in terms of 2014, but it could still be quite busy in terms of NS count.

I'm not going to predict anything until post spring barrier.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at the QBQ pattern so far, it doesn't appear that 2015 will be as active in terms of 2014, but it could still be quite busy in terms of NS count.

I'm not going to predict anything until post spring barrier.

Not sure if it matters much. I don't think we're getting a La Nina.

And there is plenty of fuel for ENSO to have some sort of crray over at the start of the season (ie. 2007, 2010). Question is how will it finish?

[Kingarabian]

Looking at the QBQ pattern so far, it doesn't appear that 2015 will be as active in terms of 2014, but it could still be quite busy in terms of NS count.

I'm not going to predict anything until post spring barrier.

Not sure if it matters much. I don't think we're getting a La Nina.

And there is plenty of fuel for ENSO to have some sort of crray over at the start of the season (ie. 2007, 2010). Question is how will it finish?

I think it matters because right now, the PDO and ENSO phases are the same as 2014. So if it gets past spring and conditions remain the same, then I think we could see a repeat of 2014. Especially since the Euro has sickly high pressures in the Atlantic. Weak Atlantic usually means an active EPAC.

[Ntxw]

+PDO (at least in terms of persistence and overall guidance) looks to remain at varying states. I think the background influence of favorable remains in the EPAC in the long run this season due to that. But we'll have to wait for seasonal signal/conditions to really have a better idea (ENSO, SST's, shear etc)

[Yellow Evan]

I think it matters because right now, the PDO and ENSO phases are the same as 2014. So if it gets past spring and conditions remain the same, then I think we could see a repeat of 2014. Especially since the Euro has sickly high pressures in the Atlantic. Weak Atlantic usually means an active EPAC.

My point is I don't think the spring barrier matter s much as to whether we get an El Nino because I think the +PDO will persist through the seaosn, and should keep us active, El Nino or not.

Euro shows high pressures in the ATL every year at this time. But the -AMO could only help the EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

+PDO (at least in terms of persistence and overall guidance) looks to remain at varying states. I think the background influence of favorable remains in the EPAC in the long run this season due to that. But we'll have to wait for seasonal signal/conditions to really have a better idea (ENSO, SST's, shear etc)

Generally, with a +PDO all those other factors (with warm winter, shear could be lower, as was the case last year) come into play. Right now, things are looking good for an actie season. But do we still have record SST's that we had in 2014? Too soon to judge IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

The ACGM model is showing the warm sST's and MJO to be EPAC-heavy this year, at least in the start.

In addition, Jan SST's in the EPAC are at the highest levels since 1959. Last year had the highest SST's since 199 and was the warmest SSt's in the sat era from Feb-July, and again in November. In August, September, and October, 2009 owned that title.

Furthermore, the PDO is at incredible levels. Will likely hit an all time record at this rate. However, a sample of the MSLP surface pressures in DEc-Jan 2015 show that the higher pressure is located just off the Pacific Northwest., In the past active seasons, this area is over the Gulf of Alaksa. 2015 also somewhat resembles the inactie seasons, which tend to have lower pressures south of the Aleutian Islands. However, in Feb, this pattern has changed somewhat and is very similar to 2014 Feb. Like many active seasons, warm tmeparue4s have been present across the SWUS.

In addition, another question is how long will this El Nino last if we are in one right now?

[Kingarabian]

The ACGM model is showing the warm sST's and MJO to be EPAC-heavy this year, at least in the start.

In addition, Jan SST's in the EPAC are at the highest levels since 1959. Last year had the highest SST's since 199 and was the warmest SSt's in the sat era from Feb-July, and again in November. In August, September, and October, 2009 owned that title.

Furthermore, the PDO is at incredible levels. Will likely hit an all time record at this rate. However, a sample of the MSLP surface pressures in DEc-Jan 2015 show that the higher pressure is located just off the Pacific Northwest., In the past active seasons, this area is over the Gulf of Alaksa. 2015 also somewhat resembles the inactie seasons, which tend to have lower pressures south of the Aleutian Islands. However, in Feb, this pattern has changed somewhat and is very similar to 2014 Feb. Like many active seasons, warm tmeparue4s have been present across the SWUS.

In addition, another question is how long will this El Nino last if we are in one right now?

Don't know if El-Nino even matters at this point in regards to an active EPAC season. I think at most it will be declared weak.

I think with a really positive PDO, sufficient warm waters, and an in-active Atlantic(allow waves to cross into the Pacific) will almost always equate to an average-above average season. The only problem will be shear, as dry air will be reduced since warm waters are over the Pacific. Usually dry air in the Pacific is caused by cooler SST's.

But looking back at the 2014 season, the EPAC swung hard at SoCal and Hawaii. Mexico got its usual dose, unfortunately.

[Yellow Evan]

The ACGM model is showing the warm sST's and MJO to be EPAC-heavy this year, at least in the start.

In addition, Jan SST's in the EPAC are at the highest levels since 1959. Last year had the highest SST's since 199 and was the warmest SSt's in the sat era from Feb-July, and again in November. In August, September, and October, 2009 owned that title.

Furthermore, the PDO is at incredible levels. Will likely hit an all time record at this rate. However, a sample of the MSLP surface pressures in DEc-Jan 2015 show that the higher pressure is located just off the Pacific Northwest., In the past active seasons, this area is over the Gulf of Alaksa. 2015 also somewhat resembles the inactie seasons, which tend to have lower pressures south of the Aleutian Islands. However, in Feb, this pattern has changed somewhat and is very similar to 2014 Feb. Like many active seasons, warm tmeparue4s have been present across the SWUS.

In addition, another question is how long will this El Nino last if we are in one right now?

Don't know if El-Nino even matters at this point in regards to an active EPAC season. I think at most it will be declared weak.

I think with a really positive PDO, sufficient warm waters, and an in-active Atlantic(allow waves to cross into the Pacific) will almost always equate to an average-above average season. The only problem will be shear, as dry air will be reduced since warm waters are over the Pacific. Usually dry air in the Pacific is caused by cooler SST's.

But looking back at the 2014 season, the EPAC swung hard at SoCal and Hawaii. Mexico got its usual dose, unfortunately.

Dry air is always some sort of issue, but think about it this way, it gives us lots of annular hurricanes. QBQ is big facotr, and I don't think the QBQ will be like it was last year. I still expect some majors though. Wind shear is a nonisssue in El Nino years, and in years where Nino 1+2 is otherwise warm. I don't think shear will be a major issue in 2015.

[Yellow Evan]

February 19, 2015
ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model prediction and present observations show that an “El Niño Modoki”condition prevails in the tropical Pacific. As per the model predictions the warmer than normal SST anomalies are expected to continue in the central Pacific through the boreal summer.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research ... st.html.en

Doesn't look like a Modoki to me.

A Modoki matters if it is present throughout the entire hurricane season and Nino 1+@ is at La Nina threshold. That messes thing sup and shiftes the pattern and trade wind pattern east, bringing in the ATL's shear normally seen during regular El Nino's.

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC may have cooled slightly from the record SST's observes, and, if the rapid cooling of Nino 1+2t keeps up, the EPAC (well, EDR really) will become a shear zone. That's a big if though. For now, shear is below normal and instability is above normal. Still, +PDO looks epic, but current SST profile would lead to less divergence. And the CPAC/WDR looks really warm still, so not all hope is lost.

[Yellow Evan]

BTW, February's SST's was easily the warmest on record. By comparison, January 2015 was the 3rd warmest overll, and warmest since 1994.

EPAC waters in February warmer than 2011 ever was.

[Ntxw]

Looking more and more likely EPAC is going to the it basin again this year. +PDO/Nino combo continues and the eastern ENSO region will feel the effects soon of the latest downwelling KW. Should help again with low shear and warm waters. I'm thinking another 150+ ACE season. Most long term guidance and indicators suggest the SW US will be wetter than normal this summer, likely because they are favoring EPAC systems streaming moisture.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking more and more likely EPAC is going to the it basin again this year. +PDO/Nino combo continues and the eastern ENSO region will feel the effects soon of the latest downwelling KW. Should help again with low shear and warm waters. I'm thinking another 150+ ACE season. Most long term guidance and indicators suggest the SW US will be wetter than normal this summer, likely because they are favoring EPAC systems streaming moisture.

I really think we can easily have another 20+ season. I've never seen the EPAC more favorable. Given the SST configuration, Hawaii and the Baja California Peninsula better watch out.

[CrazyC83]

Honestly, I see 2015 in the EPAC just as - if not more - active compared to 2014.

My early prediction: 23 named storms (plus 4 named in the CPAC), 14 hurricanes (plus 3 named in the CPAC), 9 major hurricanes (plus 1 named in the CPAC).