Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[BigB0882]

It looks like there are signs that the AO is finally going to go negative. It has been trending down and the models keep bringing it lower and lower. Might actually believe it, this time.

[hurricanehunter69]

GFS at 216 hours. This seems to be trending in the right direction..http://www.twisterdata.com/i ... hive=false

[BigB0882]

Correct link:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[BigB0882]

The surface temps certainly don't support any snow but maybe those aren't to be taken literally at that far out?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What is the over under on how many runs it will take for this to change and go away.....? http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

About the same chances of LSU winning the sec much less the national championship with Miles' latest ridiculous hire, even with Coach O.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Nah its just like the Euro showing ridiculous snow totals. Wxman said last week why the models do this. Pretty much not worth the paper they are printed out on.

[hurricanehunter69]

At BigB0882.....thanx

Correct link:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[SeGaBob]

Now if we can just get rid of that ridge...

[BigB0882]

Wouldn't the AO going negative help get rid of the ridge?

[SeGaBob]

I'm not sure... I'm not familiar with how that kind of stuff works.

[Stormcenter]

The why does the NWS and NHC put so much weight on them everyday when making their forecasts.....just asking?

Nah its just like the Euro showing ridiculous snow totals. Wxman said last week why the models do this. Pretty much not worth the paper they are printed out on.

[BigB0882]

The Euro is usually quite good and the GFS as well, just not so much with showing snow totals. The algorithm is just way off for us down here in the south. However, the models are quite good at other things.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thats the word I was trying to think of, thanks B

But of course just like clockwork its all gone now anyway

[northjaxpro]

Glancing quickly at the models, and if you are a EURO hugger, like most of us, things may get a bit interesting by the latter part of the upcoming week (Jan 22-23). EURO wants to deepen a longwave trough across the Eastern CONUS and that combined with potent shortwave energy in the southern branch of the jet moving out of the Four Corners area may spawn development of a Low Pressure area across the GOM and moves east-northeast toward the Southeast US coast by late Friday. The GFS however keeps the moisture and energy suppressed generally much farther south into the GOM in the late week time frame.

This is still 6 days out, but if the EURO comes close to verifying, there may be just enough cold air advecting down into the region with a deepening upper trough to combine with sufficient moisture the Low developing across the Northern GOM per EURO. This may possibly provide wintry precip in areas of the Deep South, mainly across northern portions of MS, AL, and GA. This is just something to keep an eye on in the next few days. The models are divergent currently, but I am watching if, and it is a considerable IF, phasing can occur next week. We should have a better idea by the end of this weekend on this end of next week scenario.

[hurricanehunter69]

eh....whateva http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[BigB0882]

That would be some historic snow for the middle of the country all the way on up the Eastern seaboard. All of TN covered in a foot of snow.

The GFS has been showing brutal cold coming down to the Eastern half of the country late in the period so I am sure that is part of it. The snow this far south? Not buying it at all but it could be on to something with the cold and snow being in the Eastern part of the country, now. Who knows, get that brutal cold to filter down to us and lets pop a Gulf low? It's possible!

Edit: After looking at surface temps, the snow down near the coast is definitely impossible but I think there is indeed a Gulf low that forma and goes right on up the East coast. Am I seeing that right? Could be an insane Noreaster but this far out, we can only guess.

[asd123]

That would be some historic snow for the middle of the country all the way on up the Eastern seaboard. All of TN covered in a foot of snow.

The GFS has been showing brutal cold coming down to the Eastern half of the country late in the period so I am sure that is part of it. The snow this far south? Not buying it at all but it could be on to something with the cold and snow being in the Eastern part of the country, now. Who knows, get that brutal cold to filter down to us and lets pop a Gulf low? It's possible!

Edit: After looking at surface temps, the snow down near the coast is definitely impossible but I think there is indeed a Gulf low that forma and goes right on up the East coast. Am I seeing that right? Could be an insane Noreaster but this far out, we can only guess.

Now that you've mentioned brutal cold, let me bring this up: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... F&hour=384 Coldest on the map is -55.6 degrees!!! Even some -50's showing up in northern Minnesota, and a pocket of -30s in NW PA

Many other previous runs have been showing this brutal cold with slight variation as to the southern push of the cold and strength. Past few runs Florida was even forecasted low 30s for lows.

Overall in about 10 days and beyond, I believe the eastern half of the US is in for some severe cold; this cold forecast has been moving closer and closer with each subsequent run.

[SeGaBob]

Are we still going to get cold or what? I haven't seen anyone post about it in the last couple of days. The Texans haven't mentioned it anymore either...

It's supposed to be close to 70 here tomorrow.

[BigB0882]

From what I have gathered, the cold is going to stay bottled up more to the northeast but I don't know about over in Georgia. Someone else will have to chime in. I assume no news = no cold.

[Stormcenter]

It's going to get very cold again. IMO

From what I have gathered, the cold is going to stay bottled up more to the northeast but I don't know about over in Georgia. Someone else will have to chime in. I assume no news = no cold.