Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#5381 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Jan 05, 2015 6:51 pm

No, I don't think any wintry precip will get to Statesboro SeGaBob. If it happens, it would be more along the I-85 corridor imo.

SeGaBob · #5382 Postby **SeGaBob** » Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:07 am

Ok, but there is this... I'm pretty close to the edge, but it probably won't show it the next run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015010600&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=108.8889

SeGaBob · #5383 Postby **SeGaBob** » Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:24 pm

12Z Parallel GFS has this...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015010612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=216.6667

It's pretty close to me, but it's still a bit out there in time. Either way that would be a lot of the south.

#5384 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:35 pm

That would be some really impressive snow cover. If we could get that kind of snow cover to stay and have the AO go negative, we could really be in business. Southeast TX is right on the edge of freezing rain/sleet for this weekend while 150 miles to the East we are going to have rain with temps in the 50s. This is not fair.

#5385 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Jan 06, 2015 8:15 pm

Or according to the 18z GFS, no rain at all. lol And absolutely nothing in the long range to get excited about. Temps well into the 60s and some 70s even.

CYCLONE MIKE · #5386 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Tue Jan 06, 2015 11:34 pm

Yeah that was a strange run B. Rain and mix stays locked over east tx for 24 he's then just dissipates when it starts moving east.

Not thinking we will see anything anyway. Don't know about BR but we busted pretty bad down here last night on low temps. Was supposed to get to 30 and only managed 34. Sure that's a sign of things to come as well.

Stormnut · #5387 Postby **Stormnut** » Tue Jan 06, 2015 11:57 pm

The SREF looks at least interesting for S LA

LaBreeze · #5388 Postby **LaBreeze** » Wed Jan 07, 2015 12:28 am

Stormnut wrote:The SREF looks at least interesting for S LA

"interesting" meaning???

PTrackerLA · #5389 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Jan 07, 2015 10:11 am

Well the 12z NAM has trended even colder for south LA Friday night/Saturday but it looks like moisture may be lacking. Think we'll see a few sleet pellets but the chance of any appreciable winter precip here looks slim unless the models are underestimating the precipitation.

SeGaBob · #5390 Postby **SeGaBob** » Wed Jan 07, 2015 10:47 am

BigB0882 wrote:Or according to the 18z GFS, no rain at all. lol And absolutely nothing in the long range to get excited about. Temps well into the 60s and some 70s even.

Yeah, I noticed that too. It's not surprising, but it might flip again in the long term. We all need snow already... :roll:

#5391 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jan 07, 2015 10:49 am

SeGaBob wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:Or according to the 18z GFS, no rain at all. lol And absolutely nothing in the long range to get excited about. Temps well into the 60s and some 70s even.

Yeah, I noticed that too. It's not surprising, but it might flip again in the long term. We all need snow already...

Look at the 00Z ECMWF which shows another potent cold front for the weekend of the 16th-18th. GFS started sniffing it out first though is a warmer than the ECMWF on this run:

PTrackerLA · #5392 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Jan 07, 2015 12:06 pm

12z GFS says maybe a little light mixed precip around here Friday evening:

CYCLONE MIKE · #5393 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Wed Jan 07, 2015 3:24 pm

I bet by tomorrow there is nothing left of the moisture for Friday. Gfs has been trending drier every run since yesterday. Not to mention how shallow the cold air is going to be.

#5394 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jan 07, 2015 3:43 pm

GFS.....enough said. :lol:

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:I bet by tomorrow there is nothing left of the moisture for Friday. Gfs has been trending drier every run since yesterday. Not to mention how shallow the cold air is going to be.

PTrackerLA · #5395 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Jan 07, 2015 5:34 pm

Slight chance of freezing rain introduced into our forecast by the NWS for Friday morning and Friday night. Doesn't appear that it will amount to much but we may not rise above 40 degrees after this evening until Saturday afternoon.

SeGaBob · #5396 Postby **SeGaBob** » Wed Jan 07, 2015 7:14 pm

Interesting...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
710 PM EST WED JAN 7 2015

GAZ087-088-099>101-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-080300-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-
INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-
COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
710 PM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS THIS EVENING...

THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES WITH A THICK BAND
OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN
GEORGIA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 8 OR 9 PM...AFFECTING PLACES THAT
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAINT STEPHEN...MONCKS CORNER...SAINT
GEORGE...SMOAKS AND ALLENDALE IN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
HILLTONIA...PERKINS AND MILLEN IN GEORGIA.

IF THE BAND HOLDS TOGETHER THERE WOULD ALSO BE REPORTS CLOSER TO
AND IN THE CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT...STATESBORO AND SAVANNAH AREAS
LATER THIS EVENING.

NO SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF SNOW FLURRIES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON. YOU CAN CALL 1-888-383-2024...OR EMAIL YOUR
REPORTS TO NWS.CHARLESTONSC@NOAA.GOV. YOU CAN ALSO SEND REPORTS
VIA TWITTER OR FACEBOOK.

&&

#5397 Postby **BigB0882** » Wed Jan 07, 2015 7:38 pm

The GFS 18z output has Baton Rouge receiving .07 liquid QPF Friday morning while temps are between 31-34 degrees. No way to know whether it is going to be 31/32 or above freezing when precip falls, if it falls. The interesting thing is the temp listed at other heights is below freezing or right at freezing. Could this be a surprise snow shower for our area?

Kennethb · #5398 Postby **Kennethb** » Wed Jan 07, 2015 8:56 pm

Here in Baton Rouge, the 850 MB ht may not even reach freezing. About the best we will get will be a few ice pellets. No snow this time around. Our record low for tomorrow is 20 set one year ago. We did not get any wintry precip until January 24th. So there is still plenty of time for more cold. Especially if we can keep these highs building down.

CajunMama · #5399 Postby **CajunMama** » Wed Jan 07, 2015 9:36 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Slight chance of freezing rain introduced into our forecast by the NWS for Friday morning and Friday night. Doesn't appear that it will amount to much but we may not rise above 40 degrees after this evening until Saturday afternoon.

I'm so glad I've got veggie soup and chicken & sausage gumbo!!! We will be braving the cold to go to the UL basketball game Thursday night. Love my Cajuns! Gotta cheer them on!!! The rest of the time I'll just be staying inside!

SeGaBob · #5400 Postby **SeGaBob** » Wed Jan 07, 2015 10:30 pm

Well, I saw some big snowflakes earlier

It wasn't a flurry though just a few flakes here and there. The sky is now clearing so that's over, but it was nice to see. Hopefully there will be better opportunities this winter. NWS is mentioning freezing drizzle as a slim possibility late tomorrow night and Friday morning.

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