2015 WPAC Season

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dexterlabio
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#21 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Jan 02, 2015 5:22 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote::uarrow: LOL I think we should follow the new Parallel GFS. It is much more stable and reliable compared to the current GFS...



The operational and parallel GFS runs are showing the same scenario of a recurve, so I guess both are fine...
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#22 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jan 02, 2015 8:51 am

:uarrow: Latest shows a straight westerly track to Mindanao
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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#23 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:05 am

What seems to be another lowrider typhoon into Mindanao...
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#24 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:04 pm

again, both operation and parallel GFS runs show a recurve in 12z...
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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#25 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:25 pm

12Z GFS brings it down to 983mb east of Mindanao, weakens slightly and hits Visayas as a typhoon beyond +180 hours...

Another interesting one is a tight low pressure 1005mb at 170E but very long range +340 hours...
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#26 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:52 pm

Talk about inconsistency.

GFS showing a recurve brushing Northern Visayas and Luzon in the 00z, 12z runs

GFS shows a Mindanao landfall in the 06z, 18z runs.

But all runs agree that we will see tropical storm Mekkhala...
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#27 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:01 am

Image

Ah here it is...expected to develop around 150E and in 66 hours...
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#28 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:17 am

Image

Besides *Mekkhala*, Long range showing Higos!
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#29 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 10:26 am

Image
Image

CMC even more robust...
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#30 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jan 03, 2015 10:47 am

Sigh. Another Hagupit-esque disagreement when the ridge clearly is strong. :roll:
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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#31 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 10:56 am

That is some deep convection popping...Maybe an invest soon?

Image
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#32 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 6:58 pm

NWS GUAM:

GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER BOGUS TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY THURSDAY WELL SOUTH OF GUAM...BUT WILL IGNORE FOR NOW AS VERY
UNLIKELY.
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Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 03, 2015 7:00 pm

euro6208 wrote:NWS GUAM:

GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP ANOTHER BOGUS TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY THURSDAY WELL SOUTH OF GUAM...BUT WILL IGNORE FOR NOW AS VERY
UNLIKELY.


They don't sound enthusiastic towards the GFS as Euro has nothing.
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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#34 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 03, 2015 7:11 pm

18Z GFS bottoms Mekkhala to 968mb, 2 mb lower than the 12Z run after running through Yap...
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#35 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jan 03, 2015 9:43 pm

GFS has Mekkhala becoming a tropical storm within 48 hrs :eek:
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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#36 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:13 am

NWS GUAM

ASCAT WIND ANALYSIS
INDICATES A SHARP TROUGHING PATTERN SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...
AND A BAND OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS FOCUSED BETWEEN 3N AND 6N. THIS WHOLE PATTERN HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
VERY SLOWLY. GFS IN PARTICULAR INDICATES A CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP
IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND MOVE TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
COMING DAYS

THE GFS40
HAS CONSISTENTLY TRIED TO SPIN UP A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND MOVE IT JUST SOUTH OF GUAM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
CHOSE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS REASONING AS THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK
VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
JUST IN CASE.
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dexterlabio
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#37 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:49 am

Euro still doesn't buy this.
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#38 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:22 am

though at 240 hours there's a hint of a low pressure system east of Visayas, as per ECMWF 00z run...
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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#39 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:30 am

Image
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euro6208

Re: 2015 WPAC Season

#40 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jan 04, 2015 6:52 am

A devastating direct hit for Yap as per latest GFS and GFS Parellel...
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