Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Tireman4]

00Z GFS paints a wintry picture across Houston on New Year's Eve. About 1/2" precip with temps below freezing. I expect that to change by the time the event is within 5-7 days. Maybe the temperature will really be in the 80s?

Ha ha ha...Still holding on sir...arent we? He he he

[Portastorm]

Didn't I tell you guys that the PWC would be working hard on its holiday time forecasts?! Of course we had a lot of input in that 0z GFS op run.

[Ntxw]

North and northwest Texas, Tuesday don't sleep on that system. If the models bust the surface temps, it is cold aloft.

[Ralph's Weather]

North and northwest Texas, Tuesday don't sleep on that system. If the models bust the surface temps, it is cold aloft.

I will take a closer look at that. Since the beginning that system has seemed to be forecasted to be warmer than it should be with the low heights. I know it is not connected to polar air, but it is plenty child aloft for something sneaky in North Texas it seems to me.

[Ptarmigan]

I should say the last 40 years "at least", as the Weather Underground historical data only goes back to 1974.

Try these sites. They are Coop data and go back to the late 19th century.

NCDC's climate and weather datasets, products, and various web pages and resources
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/quick-links

Threaded Extremes
http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/

[Ptarmigan]

The December 1983 freeze occurred in a La Nina. Same goes with February 1895, February 1899, Late January/Early February 1951, February 1989, and February 2011 freezes.

[Ptarmigan]

Those analogs are insane. Seriously. Esp the 1983 one. The 1979 analog, my dad always described that new years to me. He and my late cousin Buddy went out new years night, came back to a car completely covered in ice in Houston. Then the next day, watched Houston Cougars play Joe Montana and the Fighting Irish in an ice storm in the Cotton bowl. That front looked BRUTAL too.

Winter of 1978-1979 is the coldest winter for America on record since 1895.

[orangeblood]

North and northwest Texas, Tuesday don't sleep on that system. If the models bust the surface temps, it is cold aloft.

You're onto something Ntxw, that system continues to dig further south and west with each model run.

Also, check out the 1058 HP heading into Montana after Christmas on the 12Z GFS

[Ntxw]

North and northwest Texas, Tuesday don't sleep on that system. If the models bust the surface temps, it is cold aloft.

You're onto something Ntxw, that system continues to dig further south and west with each model run.

Also, check out the 1058 HP heading into Montana after Christmas on the 12Z GFS

It was fishy from a ways out. Since when is it 50s-60s with a deep cold storm overhead 546dm or less? Surface progs are so bad with low heights. This is why models often bust with cold core low surprises.

[orangeblood]

yeah, I just didn't think the system would trend far enough west to make that much of an impact locally.

Notice the 578 heights poking their way towards Alaska next weekend ? this is becoming more serious by the day if this trend keeps up in the long term

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is about 10-15F warmer for Houston around New Year's. Well above freezing but heavier rain. Not very good for the New Year's morning bike ride with the Houston Bicycle Club.

[SeGaBob]

Has anybody been able to see past 192 hours on the last few GFS runs? I'd kind of like to see what it's showing past that time frame.

[orangeblood]

haha, with a 1058 HP taking hold across the plains, do you really think those Temps are an accurate depiction in your neighborhood?

[SeGaBob]

No I don't... but this thread is the most active so I figured I'd get an answer faster here. I wasn't asking about temperatures either.

[Ntxw]

I know wxman57 loves how much cold air the euro put into Canada with nothing to stop it last night.

[WeatherNewbie]

:uarrow: No I don't... but this thread is the most active so I figured I'd get an answer faster here. I wasn't asking about temperatures either.

I think he was responding to wxman57, not you.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: No I don't... but this thread is the most active so I figured I'd get an answer faster here. I wasn't asking about temperatures either.

Typically whatever happens to us you can expect a few days later unless there is a SE ridge. It looks cold coast to coast.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

1058 HP, and the 850 line barely crosses Dallas.... Hmmmm

[SeGaBob]

:uarrow: No I don't... but this thread is the most active so I figured I'd get an answer faster here. I wasn't asking about temperatures either.

Typically whatever happens to us you can expect a few days later unless there is a SE ridge. It looks cold coast to coast.

Ok thanks Ntxw...If the deep south thread picks up in activity I won't bother you all here in the Texas thread.

Btw I wasn't sure who orangeblood was replying to but it's all good.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: No I don't... but this thread is the most active so I figured I'd get an answer faster here. I wasn't asking about temperatures either.

Typically whatever happens to us you can expect a few days later unless there is a SE ridge. It looks cold coast to coast.

Ok thanks Ntxw...If the deep south thread picks up in activity I won't bother you all here in the Texas thread.

Btw I wasn't sure who orangeblood was replying to but it's all good.

Feel free to post here anytime! We're a little Texas centric but usually someone will answer just may take a little time.