2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

GFS Parellel



GEM



NAVGEM

[euro6208]

GFS still consistent in developing 2 tropical cyclones last week of December even GEM shows both but further west and NAVGEM still showing cyclogenesis around 165 E at a very low latitude...

[euro6208]

No wonder why models are aggressive in developing something...Kelvin Wave slowly appraching but already in the far western part of the western pacific



Not far behind is the MJO



Will we see the last tropical cyclone to develop this year from this combo as suggested by the models or will this spawn the first tropical cyclone for 2015 in January?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS showing a near repeat of Tropical Storm Sonamu of 2013. Forms as a disturbance late 2014, then traverses the southern part of Visayas or Northern Visayas as a tropical storm just right after New Year's Day. It intensifies over the South China Sea. And in fact, they have been really consistent of its formation.

The previous run, however, had twin tropical storms [possibly one other typhoon] of which the first storm follows Sonamu whereas the other storm brushes the Samar coast, intensifies, moves NW then weakens.

[euro6208]

Strong convectively enhanced kelvin wave moving through increases cyclogenesis...

[euro6208]

Strong convectively enhanced kelvin wave moving through increases cyclogenesis...

Very strong Kelvin Wave and MJO...

[euro6208]

All the major models agreeing on development of Jangmi last week of December and impacts the Philippines on New years day and strengthening in the South China Sea...

Also models try to develop Mekkhala but differs on where...from near Guam to the Dateline...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh no

[euro6208]

06Z GFS showing what looks to be a weak tropical storm moving through the philippines around the 28th and reintensifies over the SCS...hits vietnam as a typhoon but then shows this...

[euro6208]

12Z GFS a bit stronger on the Jangmi with tacloban in the path yet again...

[beoumont]

http://world.time.com/2013/11/11/the-philippines-is-the-most-storm-exposed-country-on-earth/

The above article says the Philippines are hit by more tropical cyclones than any other country on earth (about 9 tropical cyclones per year on average; and one year 19).

Does anyone have a more detailed record?

[euro6208]

NWS Guam:

MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL EMERGE
FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA AND AFFECT YAP AND KOROR LATE THIS WEEK.
GFS SOLUTION STILL SHOWS A DEVELOPED CIRCULATION WHILE ECMWF
DEPICTS BROAD TROUGHING. INTRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY FOR
YAP AND KOROR AS THE DISTURBANCE/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

http://world.time.com/2013/11/11/the-philippines-is-the-most-storm-exposed-country-on-earth/

The above article says the Philippines are hit by more tropical cyclones than any other country on earth (about 9 tropical cyclones per year on average; and one year 19).

Does anyone have a more detailed record?

1993 had the most number of landfalls in the Philippines at 14. 2006 had the most intense landfalls having 3 or 4 at category 4 and above [>115 kts]; may set a world record.

[euro6208]

The usually conservative NAVGEM blows up a monster east of the Philippines...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO latest GFS is too weak and too far south

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Shear is favorable

[mrbagyo]

1993 had the most number of landfalls in the Philippines at 14. 2006 had the most intense landfalls having 3 or 4 at category 4 and above [>115 kts]; may set a world record.

2006 had the most intense landfalls???
IMO, 1970 is the craziest season for the Philippines, 2 cat5, 2 cat4 and 1 cat3 .

[dexterlabio]

2006 doesn't lag too far behind 1970 though. In fact 2006 typhoons may have been more destructive. First was Xangxane which struck the Bicol region as a Cat4 and considered to be the strongest typhoon to hit Manila since Angela in 1995. Next was Typhoon Cimaron which hit Northern Luzon as a Category 5, then 2 weeks later came Typhoon Chebi which struck Luzon as Cat4. Roughly a week after came Super typhoon Durian which affected Bicol as a very strong Cat4 and became one of the deadliest typhoons in history of the Philippines, killing around a thousand people. The last one is Typhoon Utor which struck the Boracay Beach as a Category 3.

[euro6208]

Here it is...GFS develops this on it's way to the Philippines...The first of potential three tropical cyclones



Four out of 5 major models (GFS,ECMWF,GEM,NAVGEM) develop this too but varies on the strength and landfall from Visayas to Mindanao...

[euro6208]

http://world.time.com/2013/11/11/the-philippines-is-the-most-storm-exposed-country-on-earth/

The above article says the Philippines are hit by more tropical cyclones than any other country on earth (about 9 tropical cyclones per year on average; and one year 19).

Does anyone have a more detailed record?

I agree on the Philippines. They always get hit...Literally the whole west pacific gets hit by more tropical cyclones in the world. As for the U.S, Guam has the highest risk of being hit by a typhoon (aka hurricane) of any state or territory in the United States.