Texas Winter 2014-2015

[BigB0882]

Latest ENS (both GEFS and EURO) interpretation (add euro weeklies to the mix) storm, then Christmas +-2 days storm, then the arctic pipeline opens up with -EPO. That is some very good agreement for an ensembles suit. I am willing to bet the farm it comes crashing down by first week of January.

So if we can just get the -EPO and the storms to continue rolling through.

Question, though. If the arctic air begins coming down, does that mean the storms will quit rolling in from the Pacific or can you have both arctic air intrusions AND repeated Pacific storms?

[aggiecutter]

Latest ENS (both GEFS and EURO) interpretation (add euro weeklies to the mix) storm, then Christmas +-2 days storm, then the arctic pipeline opens up with -EPO. That is some very good agreement for an ensembles suit. I am willing to bet the farm it comes crashing down by first week of January.

So if we can just get the -EPO and the storms to continue rolling through.

Question, though. If the arctic air begins coming down, does that mean the storms will quit rolling in from the Pacific or can you have both arctic air intrusions AND repeated Pacific storms?

Yes, that is what happened in January and February of 78'.

[BigB0882]

In January of 1978, Baton Rouge had 4 days in a row with snow! Now, I don't think any of it was more than a trace but that is according to some records I found. I was also shocked to find out it snowed 12.5 inches over two days in 1895!

Beaumont, TX reported 30 inches from that same event in 1895!! What in the world happened then? I think we are due for another big snow event down here. We've had some cold winters and some surprise snow falls but nothing huge - measurement wise. Let's get a good 4-6 inches that sticks arounds a few days. Everyone agree? lol

[Sambucol]

In January of 1978, Baton Rouge had 4 days in a row with snow! Now, I don't think any of it was more than a trace but that is according to some records I found. I was also shocked to find out it snowed 12.5 inches over two days in 1895!

Beaumont, TX reported 30 inches from that same event in 1895!! What in the world happened then? I think we are due for another big snow event down here. We've had some cold winters and some surprise snow falls but nothing huge - measurement wise. Let's get a good 4-6 inches that sticks arounds a few days. Everyone agree? lol

Yes. I agree!

[Ntxw]

In January of 1978, Baton Rouge had 4 days in a row with snow! Now, I don't think any of it was more than a trace but that is according to some records I found. I was also shocked to find out it snowed 12.5 inches over two days in 1895!

Beaumont, TX reported 30 inches from that same event in 1895!! What in the world happened then? I think we are due for another big snow event down here. We've had some cold winters and some surprise snow falls but nothing huge - measurement wise. Let's get a good 4-6 inches that sticks arounds a few days. Everyone agree? lol

The pattern set up for 1978 and 1895 are rather similar. Sometimes it just takes timing and luck as did in 1895.

[Ntxw]

Funny thing, Canada was warm and the US was cold. Very strong split flow regime both seasons.







1978 was weak El Nino, 1895 probably was a weak warm ENSO (data that far back is unreliable, only SOI sort of exists). Given the split flow pattern I'd suspect it was a Nino. You may not get those historic arctic freezes but it's one heck of a pattern for snow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Houston had 20+ inches in that storm as well.

[weatherdude1108]

What type of pattern was January 1985? Was that an El Nino? San Antonio got a record 13.5 inches of snow that year.

That was one of the best times of my life. I was 12. That very event sparked my interest in the weather.

http://www.kens5.com/story/news/local/2 ... /11029331/

[orangeblood]

Pretty big discrepancy between the Euro & GFS Ensembles showing up in the extended period....Euro has the axis of the low heights across the New Mexico into the southern plains while GFS is across the Eastern US. Will have big implications for our holiday weather depending on which model has a better handle on the pattern!! Euro is much more favorable for winter weather while GFS is showing the classic dry/cool Northwest flow through the southern plains

[srainhoutx]

Pretty big discrepancy between the Euro & GFS Ensembles showing up in the extended period....Euro has the axis of the low heights across the New Mexico into the southern plains while GFS is across the Eastern US. Will have big implications for our holiday weather depending on which model has a better handle on the pattern!! Euro is much more favorable for winter weather while GFS is showing the classic dry/cool Northwest flow through the southern plains

The Euro ensemble mean looks at lot like the CFS which finally came to its senses with a much more reasonable look with heights building into Alaska and lower heights or lower pressures across the Desert SW, Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains. Actually the parallel GFS looks reasonable from an operational guidance stand point and advertises a stormy/colder pattern that is less progressive and is in better agreement with the ensemble mean. Jeff's briefing was an excellent analysis issued late last night and offers the idea that fits a pattern that is certainly behaving like what we would expect in a weak El Nino regime.

There are growing indications that snow will begin covering the Plains over the next couple of weeks that will lend to less air mass modification and plenty of Southern tracking storms.

[Big O]

Pretty big discrepancy between the Euro & GFS Ensembles showing up in the extended period....Euro has the axis of the low heights across the New Mexico into the southern plains while GFS is across the Eastern US. Will have big implications for our holiday weather depending on which model has a better handle on the pattern!! Euro is much more favorable for winter weather while GFS is showing the classic dry/cool Northwest flow through the southern plains

In these cases and because it is still long-range, you need to look at the models' biases. The GFS is usually far too progressive, while the Euro tends to hold energy back west. Thus, take the blend.

[gatorcane]

06Z parallel GFS trending colder in the long-range with widespread colder anomalies showing up across the plains, Texas, and deep south:

[orangeblood]

Pretty big discrepancy between the Euro & GFS Ensembles showing up in the extended period....Euro has the axis of the low heights across the New Mexico into the southern plains while GFS is across the Eastern US. Will have big implications for our holiday weather depending on which model has a better handle on the pattern!! Euro is much more favorable for winter weather while GFS is showing the classic dry/cool Northwest flow through the southern plains

In these cases and because it is still long-range, you need to look at the models' biases. The GFS is usually far too progressive, while the Euro tends to hold energy back west. Thus, take the blend.

yeah, actually the Canadian Ensemble Mean looks like a good blend of the two at this time

[Ntxw]

Anyone miss the sun yet? Maybe get some a little tomorrow, about a day's worth after storm passes Tuesday but then that'll be it if we're lucky. Rolls back in Weds and sticks around again.

[TheProfessor]

I love cloudy days so having no sun for a little while is always fine with me.

[Portastorm]

Latest QPF values are unimpressive for this weekend's storm. Mostly values between .10 and .25 with higher amounts in northeast Texas. I'm taking solace in the fact that these storm systems should be more frequent so perhaps it'll all add up over time.

[veedub63]

Latest QPF values are unimpressive for this weekend's storm. Mostly values between .10 and .25 with higher amounts in northeast Texas. I'm taking solace in the fact that these storm systems should be more frequent so perhaps it'll all add up over time.

Fingers crossed.

[dhweather]

I know NTXW and srain know teleconnections as well as anyone, I'm just having trouble seeing the pattern breaking to allow for any wintry precip for Texas in the next 10-15 days.

All we can do is hurry up and wait.

[gatorcane]

GFS and GFS ensembles continue to show most of the U.S. east of the rockies turning colder than normal towards the end of this month:

[Portastorm]

Uh oh, you might need a hat and gloves there in Delray Beach if that happens!