Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ntxw]

That bowling ball trough/storm progged by the EPS is going to slowly weaken during its 48-hour traverse of Texas beginning a week from today. Probably all-rain, although it's an unusual system because of its 3 standard deviation 500mb level below normal heights. GEPS predicts a max of 2 inches of rain for Texas from this system. Precipitable water does not get extreme, hence the lower rainfall prog. None of Texas is below freeaing during the system.

Doesn't that contradict itself? The flow isn't very fast, so what's your evidence it should weaken? I thought you mentioned you only provide modeling and not analysis as you leave it to the pro mets? ECMWF (you also posts this quite often) is showing measurable snow across the high plains of Texas along with West Texas. I doubt that means none of Texas is below freezing.

You also posted the CFSv2 showed no arctic air after Christmas, well it has flipped 180. Feel free to mention that as well.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/stat ... 1450867712

BigJoe posted the GFS Ensembles. I'll take it for an ensemble.

Saying the storm will weaken is pretty pessimistic view of that storm. ANY kind of low in the winter time coming across the state like this is a big deal.

[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/541744131450867712

BigJoe posted the GFS Ensembles. I'll take it for an ensemble.

Saying the storm will weaken is pretty pessimistic view of that storm. ANY kind of low in the winter time coming across the state like this is a big deal.

The Euro Ensembles build heights over NW North America as well just after the 20th.

[Nairobi]

(1) Doesn't that contradict itself? (2) The flow isn't very fast, so what's your evidence it should weaken? (3) I thought you mentioned you only provide modeling and not analysis as you leave it to the pro mets? (4) ECMWF you also posts this quite often) is showing measurable snow across the high plains of Texas along with West Texas. I doubt that means none of Texas is below freezing..

(1) No.
(2) The models I cited with rising heights during the traverse.
(3) Reread my post on this subject, at your convenience.
(4) I did not cite the ECMWF for no below freezing temps.

[Nairobi]

Saying the storm will weaken is pretty pessimistic view of that storm. ANY kind of low in the winter time coming across the state like this is a big deal.

I didn't say it was a small deal. In fact, I said otherwise with significant rains and 3 standard deviation below normal heights. That is a very big deal. But that does not imply the system will stay the same strength as it traverses this vast state. Nor does it necessarily imply below freezing temperatures.

[Ntxw]

(1) Doesn't that contradict itself? (2) The flow isn't very fast, so what's your evidence it should weaken? (3) I thought you mentioned you only provide modeling and not analysis as you leave it to the pro mets? (4) ECMWF you also posts this quite often) is showing measurable snow across the high plains of Texas along with West Texas. I doubt that means none of Texas is below freezing..

(2) The models I cited with rising heights during the traverse.

From your model you cited;GFS, from 558dm heights to 552 contour as it crosses the state is not rising heights. You're very welcome!

[Nairobi]

From your model you cited;GFS, from 558dm heights to 552 contour as it crosses the state is not rising heights. You're very welcome!

That was not the model I cited. The EPS (i.e., the ECMWF ensembles) shows the weakening.

[Nairobi]

ECMWF predicts above freezing temperatures for Lubbock throughout the event, although it will be a close call. Heavy rain for them during the warm side.

Amarillo gets down to exactly freezing but only light precip on the back side. They get down in the upper teens Monday night/Tuesday morning, well after the precip has shut off and skies have cleared. Again, according to the ECMWF surface prog.

San Angelo gets to 39 during the rain. Midland 36. Fort Stockton 34. Abilene 39. Dallas 43. Waco 45. Austin 48. Junction 43. El Paso gets about 0.1 inches of rain when it's above 40. Per the ECMWF surface prog.

All subject to change, of course.

[Portastorm]

Debate is fine on Storm 2k. But let's cut the sarcastic endings to our posts please. Official warnings are next.

[Ntxw]

There should be a good tropical connection from the Pacific for any passing systems, STJ. Pineapple express has given California the rains they've desperately asked for. I'm sure many of us will welcome it as well.

[weatherdude1108]

That is a BEAUTIFUL site!

[Ntxw]

It's really awesome to see! I wish we had posted more of it back in the winter of 09-10 so we can look back and compare. I remember that was the last seasonal winter time that we saw such consistent STJ like what is going on now. I remember txagwxman (pro met) saying to heck with the models during the footer and a map of it was presented when the models kept going drier the night before. Good times...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I love surprises by the STJ. Expecting lots of it this winter. That was a great winter. Lots of cold air and snowy opps. If this low plays out, i expect more precip than the models show due to the STJ. Not expecting much in the way of winter precip but ill take the rain.

Also, was looking at the jet stream in the pacific. That thing is relentless right now. What will it take to calm that thing down?

[ravyrn]

I don't care what happens in the next 10 days as long as we get some measurable rain in East Texas. A solid inch or two will suit me just fine. Need the rest of my bluebonnets to germinate and start building their root systems for this upcoming Spring!

[Nairobi]

CFSv2 showing at most a -4F surface temperature anomaly in Texas for Dec 27-Jan 1. The eastern 1/3 of the state is progged to be normal. Only east and southeast Texas are forecast to have above average precip. Until the 27th, average to above average temps are forecast for the entire state.

JMA takes the upper low through the Texas panhandle and then into Missouri. Much more northerly track. More than 1 inch total rainfall is confined to far east Texas.

[vbhoutex]

Those cool anomalies on the maps you posted appear to be locally generated by the cold air aloft and rain.

Easy to say. Back it up with the facts that lead you to say that please. Everyone here is willing to listen and learn, but we can't if there is no explanation.

[hriverajr]

CFSv2 are all over the place from run to run, really difficult to identify much of anything at the moment.

[Nairobi]

Those cool anomalies on the maps you posted appear to be locally generated by the cold air aloft and rain.

Easy to say. Back it up with the facts that lead you to say that please. Everyone here is willing to listen and learn, but we can't if there is no explanation.

That's easy to see by looking at the model maps. No really cold air to the north. Highly anomalous warmth up there. 500 mb flow.

[Nairobi]

ECMWF 12/8 0000z shows: The 500mb low will intensify as it passes over Texas Sunday night and Monday, with almost a 3 standard deviation anomaly from normal. It's accompanied by a wide area of below freezing 850mb temperatures north of a Del Rio to Corpus Christi line. Snow is now forecast for Amarillo, with surface temps below freezing, and Lubbock, with temps slightly above freezing. A rain event everywhere else, with about 1.8 inches for Dallas, 0.8 for Austin, 0.7 for Houston, and over 2.0 for Texarkana.

[WeatherGuesser]

I don't care what happens in the next 10 days as long as we get some measurable rain in East Texas. A solid inch or two will suit me just fine. Need the rest of my bluebonnets to germinate and start building their root systems for this upcoming Spring!

Rain is good. Snow is not. (Unless you're a skier in the mountains)