Texas Winter 2014-2015

[WeatherNewbie]

So you infer bad things from my lack of posts and bad things from when I do post. Someone needs to take a step back. If the only acceptable posts are "yeah I agree that cold is coming," let us know. Ok?

Also, I do not make forecasts. I simply quote models and journal articles. I'm not responsible for models disagreeing with hopes for cold and snow

This forum is not about parroting models. Just about any of us can find the model outputs and read them. So you are not bringing much to the discussion by repeating something we can all read (even if your bias does show by what you choose to post and not post). If you actually want to apply some analysis to what the models show, you might find a warmer welcome. There are plenty of warm weather lovers here (one is a pro met loved by all) who often engage in discussions about why the models might be wrong or right.

[utweather]

Per the operational and ensembles ECMWF, no arctic air in Texas for the next 10 days. Possibly stormy towards the end of that period.

GFS showing no freezes for Austin or Dallas during the next 16 days and no upstream hint of one for the few days after that.

CFS also not showing any arctic air for Texas through the end of the month.

Thanks for the concise informative update. I haven't the time lately to look at any models and have been surprised by the warm weather since the cold shot we had before Thanksgiving when I then heard people on natural gas boards saying Joe "hypeman" Bastardi was saying the coldest November on record was coming.

[Nairobi]

You're welcome!

[Nairobi]

This forum is not about parroting models. Just about any of us can find the model outputs and read them. So you are not bringing much to the discussion by repeating something we can all read (even if your bias does show by what you choose to post and not post). If you actually want to apply some analysis to what the models show, you might find a warmer welcome.

Thanks for the warm advice! But I'll leave the model analysis, including why any are wrong, to the experts, i.e., the pro mets.

[South Texas Storms]

I've been happy with the recent mild temperatures as I haven't had to run my a/c or heat in several days! However, I wouldn't mind running the heat if it meant we could get a snow event this winter.

[weatherdude1108]

I have been told by family, friends, and acquaintances that I am a weather geek/dork/nut/obsessed/etc. since about middle school.

I was introduced to this site by a friend. I felt like I was in my element, but at the same time, I felt (and still feel) like I don't know anything. I cannot interpret the models that people mention on here, nor know some of the teleconnections acronyms that are thrown out.

I honestly come here mainly to learn from each and everyone of you all (pro Mets, knowledgeables, and novices alike) on all of your analyses, interpretations, and expert/seasoned opinions of the models and how they compare with the forecasts from NOAA, TV forecasters, local Mets, etc. I sometimes add the NWS discussions and blogs of local Mets, highlighting mostly rain-related stuff, since I like rain. But I don't know enough to add anything that you all wouldn't know already. I am just thankful for a site that I can visit to get my daily fix of good weather conversation!

Back on topic, I am ready for a more stormy, cold and wet pattern change whenever!

[Ralph's Weather]

After looking at the current model runs everything looks to be on track for a pattern change after mid month to a cold stormy period. It looks like the snowiest period since 2010 at least for late Dec to early Feb.

[Portastorm]

After looking at the current model runs everything looks to be on track for a pattern change after mid month to a cold stormy period. It looks like the snowiest period since 2010 at least for late Dec to early Feb.

Yep. Larry Cosgrove in his newsletter release last night stated he still anticipates a pattern change to colder, stormier around Christmas. He bases his thoughts on analogs and existing teleconnection signals. If he and the many others trumpeting this change are right, we should relatively soon start seeing changes in the operational and ensemble runs in the GFS and Euro.

[Ntxw]

The teleconnections are a great tool. They are a good way to decipher what on the model is good and what is bad. For instance if a model is projecting a certain pattern (AO, EPO, NAO) etc but then the run progresses something that doesn't match what historically the indexes do that it is predicting then it's likely missing something. You blend it with ENS which will give you a good clue if the teleconnection forecasts has merit. Usually this is the best way to go about long range beyond 3-5 days.

The CFSv2 while has been mild, is starting to buckle to the other guidance. It's sea of warmth is no longer and is now favoring widespread negative anomalies to end this month and even more in January. GEFS/EC ENS build heights across Alaska and NW Canada, it's a cold loading pattern. Look for a lot of model changes later this week.

[Ntxw]

And checking the analogs, it's actually common, in fact a common theme among the 3 top one's I've used (1976, 1977, 2009) for a blase December, though 2009 was a good one. 1976 had multiple incidences of DFW getting into the 70s and was in fact not that cold of a month. Things really turned that year in January. 1977 even got to 80 (was a mild December overall) and then it went haywire once the calendar flipped. 2009 was snowier than the other 2 but it got into the 70s several times as well of course we mostly remember the Christmas blizzard that impacted the Red River valley.

[Ntxw]

Look at the GFS moving to the other guidance. Bowling ball. Heights aren't low as you'd want yet but I suspect it will. Euro has been developing some cold air aloft from the storm. It's not going to drive into those ridges. Just deepen and sit.

[asd123]

The teleconnections are a great tool. They are a good way to decipher what on the model is good and what is bad. For instance if a model is projecting a certain pattern (AO, EPO, NAO) etc but then the run progresses something that doesn't match what historically the indexes do that it is predicting then it's likely missing something. You blend it with ENS which will give you a good clue if the teleconnection forecasts has merit. Usually this is the best way to go about long range beyond 3-5 days.

The CFSv2 while has been mild, is starting to buckle to the other guidance. It's sea of warmth is no longer and is now favoring widespread negative anomalies to end this month and even more in January. GEFS/EC ENS build heights across Alaska and NW Canada, it's a cold loading pattern. Look for a lot of model changes later this week.

NTXW, what is your take on the teleconnections forecast? We are heading deep into December with a +AO, +NAO, +PNA (only favorable one for cold air, need others), and a neutral EPO, source: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_teleconn ... graphs.php, other NOAA) When will the teleconnections change and deliver Arctic air to the Southeast and Texas (wanted your expertise and this is the Texas thread, so had to mention Texas )

[Ntxw]

NTXW, what is your take on the teleconnections forecast? We are heading deep into December with a +AO, +NAO, +PNA (only favorable one for cold air, need others), and a neutral EPO, source: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_teleconn ... graphs.php, other NOAA) When will the teleconnections change and deliver Arctic air to the Southeast and Texas (wanted your expertise and this is the Texas thread, so had to mention Texas )

AO likely goes negative after the 15-20th period. Strengthening Asian jet will pull back the Aleutian low out of the GOA, but I'm a little uncertain on the EPO if it will go slightly negative or strong, it's a cold loading signal but at this time nothing screams strong deviation from normal. CFSv2 shows a more severe -EPO signal first week of January.

The NAO I'm more muddled on, I've never liked this index because its complicated and there are different outcomes for the same signal but if the southeast wants some arctic intrusion they'll likely need at least a west based (Greenland block) -NAO. In the past severe outbreaks in SEC land (1985 for example) had extreme blocking move from the NAO domain through the AO. Guidance doesn't show much deviation either or for the NAO mostly weakly positive. PNA remains positive most of this winter, El Nino loves it.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS and GEM show no arctic air intrusions out through 384 and 240 hours, respectively. In fact all I see are warmer anomalies across Canada. Of course long-range will likely change.

12Z GFS, Dec 23:


12Z GEM, Dec 17:

[Nairobi]

Those cool anomalies on the maps you posted appear to be locally generated by the cold air aloft and rain.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF more of the same - no arctic air intrusion through 10 days, very warm anomalies over Southern Canada too a week from now.

[ronyan]

Look at that warm front coming down the Rockies!

[hriverajr]

CFS v2 shows the time to look for interesting weather in Texas is between Christmas to just past new years. (Of course subject to change)

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Look at that warm front coming down the Rockies!

So should we call that a "Red Norther?"

[Nairobi]

That bowling ball trough/storm progged by the EPS is going to slowly weaken during its 48-hour traverse of Texas beginning a week from today. Probably all-rain, although it's an unusual system because of its 3 standard deviation 500mb level below normal heights. GEPS predicts a max of 2 inches of rain for Texas from this system. Precipitable water does not get extreme, hence the lower rainfall prog. None of Texas is below freeaing during the system.