WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

euro6208 · #721 Postby **euro6208** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 12:45 pm

Moment when PAGASA, the official agency in the P.I says it made landfall :roll:

Wonder what tools they used...

#722 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:34 pm

Intensity going down but still a cat 2 equivalent.

22W HAGUPIT 141206 1800 11.9N 125.4E WPAC 100 948

TPPN11 PGTW 061807

A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 06/1732Z

C. 11.93N

D. 125.40E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CENTER EMBEDDED
IN BLACK YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1304Z 11.92N 125.82E MMHS

#723 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 3:16 pm

Don't be fooled, Category 2 conditions are still extremely dangerous.

ohno · #724 Postby **ohno** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 5:35 pm

Any sign of further weakening?

xtyphooncyclonex · #725 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 5:44 pm

Non-stop rains and increasingly strong winds here in Cebu City... I know we are too far but there have been some power outages starting.

xtyphooncyclonex · #726 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 5:58 pm

euro6208 wrote:

Very heavy rain totals and surge...

They are underestimating the totals, especially to the south.. hmmmm

It's moving west-southwesterly now, and I don't think Lucena and Manila could get such amounts... And rainfall total of Cebu is probably much higher than the 24-hr projection.

For the past few forecasts, it has been increasingly unlikely that Hagupit would hit Metro Manila, mainly because of its WSW-ward motion.

They base their forecast and position/intensity from JTWC, yet they are confusing

JTWC has it overland Taft, and not Dolores.

#727 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:03 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
NDG wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Some recent quotes from here:

Wobble watching, lol.

Most times I have agreed with you but this time I have to say you dropped the ball with this Typhoon

Yes, indeed. But he did quite well.

Hey NDG, yeah you said it. :oops:

You can't win 'em all. My landfall was actually only 60 miles off but that's a lot here since we like to play a game of inches, lol. I also still think that JTWC did really well overall especially since yesterday when it counts, considering the circumstances. They did well on the strength when most people were still saying it would hit Tacloban as a cat 5 which I thought was irresponsible and never warranted by the data. I feel they get way too much flack; at least a lot more than they deserve.

And thanks, xtyphooncyclonex.

I have a better scorecard than this, for sure.

beoumont · #728 Postby **beoumont** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:04 pm

Interesting how JTWC kept discounting a WSW dip, even though several progs kept insisting on it. Then, when on one run those progs got rid of the dip, JTWC basically said, "I told you so."
Until, of course, the eye took this WSW dip.

xtyphooncyclonex · #729 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:09 pm

Inconsistency:

JMA had the landfall over SULAT/San Julian around 11PM
JTWC had the landfall over Taft/Sulat between 8PM-2AM
PAGASA had the landfall over DOLORES at 8PM

Sigh.

ohno · #730 Postby **ohno** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:25 pm

current eye location please..

xtyphooncyclonex · #731 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:30 pm

ohno wrote:current eye location please..

S of W to Paranas, Samar
Or near Catbalogan, Samar

#732 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:31 pm

ohno wrote:current eye location please..

I see someone says Catbalogan. Well I have a problem with locating it anyway. Everyone look at this. According to the data this recently passed north of Masbate since winds there went from NW to SW and they had no calm. The barometer reading is also suspiciously high. But according to this data the track would have to look something like what I drew here. That's a pretty big right turn...

OOPS I had the wrong picture. Here you go...

xtyphooncyclonex · #733 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:36 pm

OFF TOPIC

But, quite important

Mactan Airport [in some sites] is mistaken for Masbate Airport, and actually those are the weather conditions over the former airport. I really noticed this error a few years ago. Winds here are coming from our NW/SW and we are facing south...

ohno · #734 Postby **ohno** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:38 pm

I have a feeling hagupit will exit south of mindoro

xtyphooncyclonex · #735 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:40 pm

ohno wrote:I have a feeling hagupit will exit south of mindoro

Or more likely near Coron, Palawan

#736 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:41 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:OFF TOPIC

But, quite important

Mactan Airport [in some sites] is mistaken for Masbate Airport, and actually those are the weather conditions over the former airport. I really noticed this error a few years ago. Winds here are coming from our NW/SW and we are facing south...

Ok! Thanks pal. You solved the mystery. That data is definitely from Mactan, not Masbate. So it is all the way down by you at Cebu. Now it makes sense.

dexterlabio · #737 Postby **dexterlabio** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:43 pm

I woke up this morning in Manila next to a freezing cold breeze. :froze:

By the way, this storm is tracking painfully across Eastern Visayas. :double:

I wonder if the eye is already overwater this morning after it made landfall in Eastern Samar 11pm last night (Manila time). That's like almost 6 hours overland....

xtyphooncyclonex · #738 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:43 pm

Center is now actually west of Catbalogan City

Near 11.6N 124.? E

xtyphooncyclonex · #739 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:58 pm

Rain is constantly getting heavier by the hour, so is the wind

dexterlabio · #740 Postby **dexterlabio** » Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:59 pm

Hah 18zGFS basically spells the end of Hagupit.

WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

Re:

Re:

Re:

Re:

Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

Who is online