WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

Not looking good for those in the island of Samar. Devastaing storm surge for those just north of landfall.

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[euro6208]

All hail King Euro?

I am king !

[euro6208]

Hagupit again a Super Typhoon with winds of 130 knots!

[euro6208]

2014DEC05 103200 7.1 920.0 143.0 7.1 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -4.02 -81.23 EYE 18 IR 57.1 11.88 -128.58 COMBO MTSAT2 23.6

RAW up to 7.4...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC ANNULUS OF INTENSE
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 12-NM ROUND EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. A
050308Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER, REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL
AND FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. BASED ON A 050125Z 25-KM ASCAT BULLS-EYE, THE 34-KNOT WIND
RADII AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE MORE
SYMMETRIC WIND PROFILE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT
125 KNOTS, JUST BELOW SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY, BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, WHICH
CORRESPONDS WELL WITH A 050502Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 128 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH IS UNDER MODERATE
(15 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 22W IS TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN
CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF
JAPAN. THE 05/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE STR
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE WESTERN CELL OF
THE STR EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, EASTWARD INTO THE EAST
PHILIPPINE SEA. THERE IS A BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
THE EAST CHINA SEA AND JAPAN, HOWEVER, FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS ZONAL AND LACKS THE DYNAMICS TO INFLUENCE
TY 22W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES. OVERALL, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, HOWEVER, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPREAD OF ONLY
100-NM AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
FAVORING A SLIGHT POLEWARD BIAS TO THE TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SYSTEM
SIZE AND POSITION OF THE BREAK IN THE STR. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL IT STARTS INTERACTING WITH LAND NEAR TAU 24
THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY WEAKENING.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO
TIGHTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONVERGING WEST OF MANILA.
TY 22W WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT RE-EMERGES OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COOLER, MORE STABLE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. OVERALL, DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[apocalypt-flyer]

Storm surge is going to be one issue but this is going to crawl across the Visayas at a snail's pace compared to Haiyan. Mudslides could be a big big issue as rainfall totals could really tally up.

[NDG]

All hail King Euro?

Yes, King Euro did it again, showing everyone who's the King.

[dexterlabio]

Local TV coverage from Leyte reporting the weather has gotten windy with drizzle at this hour.

[ejeraldmc]

PAGASA's latest bulletin said it maintained its strength. :/

[talkon]

Looks like it is weakening again

[euro6208]

Hagupit has really slowed down compared to the previous best track fixes...12.0N 128.5E



Core passing north of samar and landfall into rapu rapu island

[euro6208]

Latest prognostic reasoning from JTWC...

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC ANNULUS OF INTENSE CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A 15-NM ROUND EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. A 050748Z SSMIS 91
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW TO T7.0
FROM RJTD. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH A 050748Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
131 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN QUADRANT,
WHICH IS UNDER MODERATE (15 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. STY 22W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR), WHICH IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF JAPAN. THE 05/00Z 500 MB
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE STR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE WESTERN CELL OF THE STR EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA, EASTWARD INTO THE EAST PHILIPPINE SEA. THERE IS A
BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AND
JAPAN, HOWEVER, FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS
ZONAL AND LACKS THE DYNAMICS TO INFLUENCE STY 22W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES. OVERALL, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, HOWEVER, THE BULK
OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SPREAD OF 160 NM AT TAU 72. THE COAMPS-TC AND HWRF TRACKERS ARE NOW
THE SOLE OUTLIERS WITH ERRONEOUS TRACKS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING A SLIGHT POLEWARD BIAS TO THE TRACK
DUE TO THE LARGE SYSTEM SIZE AND POSITION OF THE BREAK IN THE STR.
STY 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY UNTIL IT STARTS
INTERACTING WITH LAND NEAR TAU 24 THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO
TIGHTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONVERGING WEST OF MANILA.
STY 22W WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT RE-EMERGES OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COOLER, MORE STABLE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. OVERALL, DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like it is weakening again

It has just started to strengthen.

[wxman57]

I agree with WxMan57 on this. Looks like we could have another "Euro-NAIL" as far as track.

Time will tell.

As I told my team yesterday - you didn't "nail" the forecast until the storm follows your projected track into the central Philippines near Tacloban (not Luzon). GFS & JTWC had been going with a recurve, passing well east of Luzon for days. Only in the last 4-5 advisories did they shift their track west and southward toward the Euro (after the GFS started edging toward the Euro).

[tolakram]

It does look to be battling increased shear.



Latest analyzed shear from CIMSS

[ozonepete]

http://i.imgur.com/PG8sG6v.jpg

Hagupit has really slowed down compared to the previous best track fixes...12.0N 128.5E

http://i.imgur.com/WGBdcx7.jpg

Core passing north of samar and landfall into rapu rapu island

That's what I've had since yesterday. North of euro landfall. JTWC has been forecasting it well by blending the model tracks.

[CrazyC83]

I would go with 140 kt based on all that data, including the ADT.

[ozonepete]

I agree with WxMan57 on this. Looks like we could have another "Euro-NAIL" as far as track.

Time will tell.

As I told my team yesterday - you didn't "nail" the forecast until the storm follows your projected track into the central Philippines near Tacloban (not Luzon). GFS & JTWC had been going with a recurve, passing well east of Luzon for days. Only in the last 4-5 advisories did they shift their track west and southward toward the Euro (after the GFS started edging toward the Euro).

Very true my friend. And it sure doesn't look like it's going to go over Tacloban.

[ozonepete]

Doing another eyewall replacement

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Doing another eyewall replacement

Just curious, what is that based on? A 1031z microwave pass showed a solid, single eyewall.