WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Indeed...

2014DEC05 080100 7.0 923.0 140.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -11.66 -78.45 EYE 17 IR 57.1 11.92 -128.76 COMBO MTSAT2 23.5
2014DEC05 073200 7.0 923.1 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 6.14 -78.33 EYE -99 IR N/A 11.81 -128.91 COMBO MTSAT2 23.2
2014DEC05 070100 7.0 923.1 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 3.12 -77.94 EYE 18 IR N/A 11.85 -128.87 COMBO MTSAT2 23.3

Category 5!

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 489 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC ANNULUS OF INTENSE
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 12-NM ROUND EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. A
050308Z TRMM 85 GHZ IMAGE, HOWEVER, REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL
AND FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. BASED ON A 050125Z 25-KM ASCAT BULLS-EYE, THE 34-KNOT WIND
RADII AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE MORE
SYMMETRIC WIND PROFILE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT
125 KNOTS, JUST BELOW SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY, BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW, WHICH
CORRESPONDS WELL WITH A 050502Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 128 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH IS UNDER MODERATE
(15 KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 22W IS TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN
CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF
JAPAN. THE 05/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE STR
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE WESTERN CELL OF
THE STR EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, EASTWARD INTO THE EAST
PHILIPPINE SEA. THERE IS A BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
THE EAST CHINA SEA AND JAPAN, HOWEVER, FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS ZONAL AND LACKS THE DYNAMICS TO INFLUENCE
TY 22W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
EXACT TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES. OVERALL, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, HOWEVER, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPREAD OF ONLY
100-NM AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
FAVORING A SLIGHT POLEWARD BIAS TO THE TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SYSTEM
SIZE AND POSITION OF THE BREAK IN THE STR. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL IT STARTS INTERACTING WITH LAND NEAR TAU 24
THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY WEAKENING.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO
TIGHTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONVERGING WEST OF MANILA.
TY 22W WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT RE-EMERGES OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COOLER, MORE STABLE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. OVERALL, DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Dark grey convection on the dvorak imagery now completely encircles the eye. it's strengthening and it's outflow is super...

[mrbagyo]

TXPQ28 KNES 050916
TCSWNP

A. 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 05/0832Z

C. 11.9N

D. 128.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI/AMSU/SSMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED 1.15 DEGREES IN WHITE FOR EYE NO. OF
6.0. EYE ADJ OF .5 IS ADDED FOR WHITE RING AROUND THE OW FOR A DT
OF 6.5. THIS IS CLEAR CUT FOR EIR METHOD YET VISIBLE METHODOLOGY IS
ALSO CLEAR CUT AT EMBEDDED DISTANCE EQUAL TO 1 DEGREE FOR AND EYE NO
OF 7.0. NO BF IS ADDED FOR DT OF 7.0. MET IS 6.5 FOR WEAKENING TREND
FROM YESTERDAY. PT IS 6.5. AS SUCH FT IS 6.5 BASED ON EIR DT WHICH IS
A MORE OBJECTIVE MEASURE OF DETERMINING INTENSITY THAN VISIBLE METHOD.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

05/0308Z 11.8N 129.1E TMI
05/0458Z 11.8N 129.0E AMSU
05/0631Z 11.9N 128.9E SSMI
05/0748Z 11.9N 128.8E SSMIS


...GALLINA

[cycloneye]

Tweet from chaser James Reynolds:

James Reynolds @EarthUncutTV · 50 Min. Vor 50 Minuten
Big comms black out for me on East coast of Samar, back on west coast now nearing Catbalogan #typhoon #Hagupit #rubyPH

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Winds are starting to crank up. This is far from the brunt. This is a sign that Hagupit is a large, large storm.

[dexterlabio]

Ruby looks a lot better than it did this morning.....and maybe (just maybe) if the eye warms up a bit more, it could be a Cat5 again...

[stormstrike]

"Welcome aboard!" ECMWF to GFS.

Well anyway GFS still shows the west movement towards Visayas on their latest run. Even a wsw jog before landfall.

Will this affect the next JTWC forecast? We'll see.

[talkon]

Ruby looks a lot better than it did this morning.....and maybe (just maybe) if the eye warms up a bit more, it could be a Cat5 again...

It is already T7.0 now (OW in CMG)

[ejeraldmc]

It's trying to get itself symmetrical again.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS has it lower and their 850 hPa wind has at least typhoon force winds over most of Cebu 36 hours time.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm thinking about 130-140 kts next JTWC warning

[dexterlabio]

All hail King Euro?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

All hail King Euro?

Yes. In fact, ECMWF made GFS go several miles south compared to the previous run. Now, GFS and ECMWF/Euro are in very tight agreement.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 125kts.

22W HAGUPIT 141205 1200 12.0N 128.5E WPAC 125 929

[cycloneye]

TPPN11 PGTW 051203

A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 05/1132Z

C. 11.99N

D. 128.53E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 15NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0631Z 11.77N 129.27E SSMI
05/0748Z 11.85N 128.85E SSMS
05/0829Z 12.03N 128.63E MMHS
05/1031Z 11.93N 128.63E GPMI


UEHARA

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It is already verifying: the ECMWF [and GFS's] westward turn



00z run. Latest run is more to the south.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's getting windy here, with gusts of 30-40 kph. The winds are so loud, you can clearly here the swinging of tree branches/twigs indoors.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

UPDATED AS OF 6PM
22W HAGUPIT 141205 1200 12.0N 128.5E WPAC 130 926


It is moving to the south.

7:00 PM
05 December 2014 11.9°N, 128.5°E 335 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar
6:00 PM
05 December 2014 12.0°N, 128.5°E 340 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar
5:00 PM
05 December 2014 11.9°N, 128.7°E 360 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 5 December 2014

<Analyses at 05/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N12°00'(12.0°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°55'(11.9°)
E127°25'(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°50'(11.8°)
E126°10'(126.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°55'(11.9°)
E123°10'(123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°35'(12.6°)
E120°50'(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)