WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

Gigantic eye! This may very well go annular now or hybrid-annular. It is exceedingly rare for a tropical cyclone to execute another ERC (and thus re-strengthen) once it has developed a large eye and started a recurve or stalled out.

[oaba09]

Latest prognostic reasoning from JTWC. Most models are in agreement of a Philippines land fall.

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND WITH A MORE ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN FILLED IN, LEAVING A
SLIGHT DIMPLE OFFSET TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 042301Z GMI AND
042242Z SSMIS IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE (20-25
KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION DUE TO THE DIMPLE
FEATURE AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. AS A RESULT OF THE
RECENT WEAKENING TREND, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO
T6.0 WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT T7.0, AS SUCH, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY TO 125 KNOTS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER WEAKENING AS THERE IS INCREASED PRESSURE ON
THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASED VWS. TY HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY HAGUPIT WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
THROUGH TAU 48. BETWEEN TAUS 24-48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
SLIGHTLY AS AN APPROACHING, WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL PRODUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN THE
MODERATE VWS, TY 22W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS TY HAGUPIT BEGINS LAND INTERACTION AT TAU 48
NORTH OF SAMAR. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE
COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
PHILIPPINES. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, RANGING BETWEEN THE CAGAYAN VALLEY IN
CENTRAL LUZON TO JUST NORTH OF PANAY, THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LAYS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. AS EXPECTED, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS WELL AS INCREASED SHEER. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL MAINTAIN TYPHOON INTENSITY
UPON REACHING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 120. HOWEVER INCREASED VWS
DUE TO THE NORTH EASTERLY SURGE EVENT MAY PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL, THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD OF THE MODELS IN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK WESTWARD ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMIC MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Gigantic eye! This may very well go annular now or hybrid-annular. It is exceedingly rare for a tropical cyclone to execute another ERC (and thus re-strengthen) once it has developed a large eye and started a recurve or stalled out.

[url=http://s189.photobucket.com/user/philnyc_2007/media/satrbtop2014-12-050201_zpsb6a409f1.gif.html]

Oh dear. could we be seeing a new monster in the making since this still has 2 whole days before reaching land?

[RL3AO]

Gigantic eye! This may very well go annular now or hybrid-annular. It is exceedingly rare for a tropical cyclone to execute another ERC (and thus re-strengthen) once it has developed a large eye and started a recurve or stalled out.

[img ]http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satrbtop2014-12-050201_zpsb6a409f1.gif[/img]

Will be interesting to see a wind field analysis in about 12 hours or so. Could be some incredible surge if it moves westward.

[ozonepete]

Gigantic eye! This may very well go annular now or hybrid-annular. It is exceedingly rare for a tropical cyclone to execute another ERC (and thus re-strengthen) once it has developed a large eye and started a recurve or stalled out.

[img ]http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satrbtop2014-12-050201_zpsb6a409f1.gif[/img]

Will be interesting to see a wind field analysis in about 12 hours or so. Could be some incredible surge if it moves westward.

Surge could be tremendous since weakening cat 5's can get down to a cat 2 but still carry a cat 4 or 5 surge. Very dangerous.

[ozonepete]

Gigantic eye! This may very well go annular now or hybrid-annular. It is exceedingly rare for a tropical cyclone to execute another ERC (and thus re-strengthen) once it has developed a large eye and started a recurve or stalled out.

[url=http://s189.photobucket.com/user/philnyc_2007/media/satrbtop2014-12-050201_zpsb6a409f1.gif.html]

Oh dear. could we be seeing a new monster in the making since this still has 2 whole days before reaching land?

No. luckily. The large eye means it can maintain close to current strength more easily but cannot strengthen.

[RL3AO]

Gigantic eye! This may very well go annular now or hybrid-annular. It is exceedingly rare for a tropical cyclone to execute another ERC (and thus re-strengthen) once it has developed a large eye and started a recurve or stalled out.

[img ]http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satrbtop2014-12-050201_zpsb6a409f1.gif[/img]

Will be interesting to see a wind field analysis in about 12 hours or so. Could be some incredible surge if it moves westward.

Surge could be tremendous since weakening cat 5's can get down to a cat 2 but still carry a cat 4 or 5 surge. Very dangerous.

Yes. Of course there is a big difference between a west moving storm hitting perpendicular to the land and starting to recurve and skirting or hitting at a more acute angle.

[ozonepete]

Yes. Of course there is a big difference between a west moving storm hitting perpendicular to the land and starting to recurve and skirting or hitting at a more acute angle.

Yup. I still think it's going to recurve enough to miss Tacloban and the central Philippines. I've been saying up near Naga and I'm sticking to that for now. That would be good news for Manila because it will cross a lot of land before it gets there and thus weaken considerably.

[dexterlabio]

Yup. I still think it's going to recurve enough to miss Tacloban and the central Philippines. I've been saying up near Naga and I'm sticking to that for now. That would be good news for Manila because it will cross a lot of land before it gets there and thus weaken considerably.

Nice to see you again here. I have to ask though, if we say "recurve" that means going to the NE and missing land, isn't it? But why do you think it could end up near Naga or even Manila if we could expect recurve?

[euro6208]

Our local typhoon chaser and storm2k member James Reynolds driving up north from tacloban in his latest twit...

[oaba09]

So they are moving the track northward and dropping intensity steadily. That's what I've been expecting. They will likely keep shifting the track to more of a recurve as we go forward.[/quote]

Actually, if you look at JTWC's track history they actually moved their track southwards(they had a more northern track yesterday)...

[ozonepete]

With respect ozonepete its just normal for a system to weaken during EWR but after the outer eyewall has replaced the inner one completely a storm may re-intensify.

Lol much respect for you too but I didn't say that after an ERC a TC doesn't re-intensify. They normally do. I said that recurving tropical cyclones or ones that stall just before a recurve rarely ever intensify again. Go read that post again.

[euro6208]

[ozonepete]

03:00z warning.

http://oi62.tinypic.com/33k7u2p.jpg

So they are moving the track northward and dropping intensity steadily. That's what I've been expecting. They will likely keep shifting the track to more of a recurve as we go forward.

Actually, if you look at JTWC's track history they actually moved their track southwards(they had a more northern track yesterday)...

?? But we were talking about the adjustment since the last advisory, not from yesterday til now.

[euro6208]

looks like it just completed the eyewall replacement cycle and is strengthening again...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

With due respect ozonepete, as dexterlabio has said, a recurve is when a storm moves NE and misses the landmass entirely yet you mentioned that this would hit Bicol/Southern Luzon.

[ozonepete]

Yup. I still think it's going to recurve enough to miss Tacloban and the central Philippines. I've been saying up near Naga and I'm sticking to that for now. That would be good news for Manila because it will cross a lot of land before it gets there and thus weaken considerably.

Nice to see you again here. I have to ask though, if we say "recurve" that means going to the NE and missing land, isn't it? But why do you think it could end up near Naga or even Manila if we could expect recurve?

Haha it's used a little loosely in the business or seems that way. But missing land is not part of the definition of recurve. Any time a TC (in the northern hemisphere) starts to move northward from a westward track it is recurving. Recurving does not mean it will miss land. Some of the most intense and/or noteworthy storms to hit Manila moved west of the central Philippines and then recurved northeastward over you. So when I say that this storm will not continue westward but turn west-northwestward or northwestward it's natural to say it's recurving. It may recurve for a while and then turn back westward but while it is curving poleward from a westward track it is said to be recurving. OK?

[ozonepete]

With due respect ozonepete, as dexterlabio has said, a recurve is when a storm moves NE and misses the landmass entirely yet you mentioned that this would hit Bicol/Southern Luzon.

No. See my post just above. I explained how we use the terminology in tropical forecasting.

[euro6208]

Yup. I still think it's going to recurve enough to miss Tacloban and the central Philippines. I've been saying up near Naga and I'm sticking to that for now. That would be good news for Manila because it will cross a lot of land before it gets there and thus weaken considerably.

Nice to see you again here. I have to ask though, if we say "recurve" that means going to the NE and missing land, isn't it? But why do you think it could end up near Naga or even Manila if we could expect recurve?

Haha it's used a little loosely in the business or seems that way. But missing land is not part of the definition of recurve. Any time a TC (in the northern hemisphere) starts to move northward from a westward track it is recurving. Recurving does not mean it will miss land. Some of the most intense and/or noteworthy storms to hit Manila moved west of the central Philippines and then recurved northeastward over you. So when I say that this storm will not continue westward but turn west-northwestward or northwestward it's natural to say it's recurving. It may recurve for a while and then turn back westward but while it is curving poleward from a westward track it is said to be recurving. OK?

Thanks for this info...I even thought recurve means a north and northeast track

[dexterlabio]

Haha it's used a little loosely in the business or seems that way. But missing land is not part of the definition of recurve. Any time a TC (in the northern hemisphere) starts to move northward from a westward track it is recurving. Recurving does not mean it will miss land. Some of the most intense and/or noteworthy storms to hit Manila moved west of the central Philippines and then recurved northeastward over you. So when I say that this storm will not continue westward but turn west-northwestward or northwestward it's natural to say it's recurving. It may recurve for a while and then turn back westward but while it is curving poleward from a westward track it is said to be recurving. OK?

Haha ok got it. Because in the Philippines when PAGASA says "recurve", it means the storm is going towards Japan. Thank you for posting. I do appreciate the pro mets from the Western Hemisphere finding time to share their thoughts regarding WPAC systems.