WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Eyewall replacement cycle almost complete.

[ozonepete]

Thanks, Luis. The new larger eye is almost complete and Hagupit will most likely keep this larger eye and continue weakening. Looks to be starting a recurve and weakening. Looks like a "euro-fail."

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track down to 125kts.

22W HAGUPIT 141205 0000 11.7N 129.7E WPAC 125 929

[stormstrike]

:uarrow: Thanks, Luis. The new larger eye is almost complete and Hagupit will most likely keep this larger eye and continue weakening. Looks to be starting a recurve and weakening. Looks like a "euro-fail."

How could you say it's a "euro-fail" when even the GFS, the one which insisted a recurve for how many runs, already shifted to the west on their latest run?

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Thanks, Luis. The new larger eye is almost complete and Hagupit will most likely keep this larger eye and continue weakening. Looks to be starting a recurve and weakening. Looks like a "euro-fail."

How could you say it's a "euro-fail" when even the GFS, the one which insisted a recurve for how many runs, already shifted to the west on their latest run?

I agree. I'd say there's a good chance of a "euro-NAIL" on this one. Even yesterday morning, all 21 GFS ensemble members had it recurving east of Luzon. The GFS has trended hundreds of miles south and west, while the Euro hasn't moved more than 30-40 miles either way. Of course, Hagupit hasn't hit the Philippines - yet...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That westward turn and slowdown greatly reminds me of powerful category 4 typhoon Amy which did the same, yet went WSW-ward. And that is what the ECMWF is consistently showing.

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Thanks, Luis. The new larger eye is almost complete and Hagupit will most likely keep this larger eye and continue weakening. Looks to be starting a recurve and weakening. Looks like a "euro-fail."

How could you say it's a "euro-fail" when even the GFS, the one which insisted a recurve for how many runs, already shifted to the west on their latest run?

I agree. I'd say there's a good chance of a "euro-NAIL" on this one. Even yesterday morning, all 21 GFS ensemble members had it recurving east of Luzon. The GFS has trended hundreds of miles south and west, while the Euro hasn't moved more than 30-40 miles either way. Of course, Hagupit hasn't hit the Philippines - yet...

Because the euro always had the west track and the GFS for most of the time did not. So by any scoring method you'd like, if this recurves soon and hits Luzon or misses entirely, the GFS has the better record because the euro never called for a recurve. Look at the western side of the circulation envelope. It's hitting a wall.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Because the euro always had the west track and the GFS for most of the time did not. So by any scoring method you'd like, if this recurves soon and hits Luzon or misses entirely, the GFS has the better record because the euro never called for a recurve. Look at the western side of the circulation envelope. It's hitting a wall.

The GFS had moved many (perhaps hundred) miles, and from a recurve to Samar landfall. Euro had also better consistency in dealing with the storm's track and intensity, thus, they only shifted a few miles and much lesser than of the GFS.

[dexterlabio]

I agree with ozonepete about the storm hitting up a "wall"...it's the STR located west of Luzon. If the trough was deep enough, this storm could have started going north and follow the trough...but it looks like it's not yet that deep, thus the storm slowing down... The question is if this STR will resume the steering..

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

[Filipinas50]

Based on my personal opinion, the eye of the storm will not reform and it will continue to weaken due to the effect of the northeast moonsoon and will not get a chance to regain intensity due to imminent land interaction or it might even curve to the north and dissipate but I could be wrong ...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[tdp]

[ozonepete]

Because the euro always had the west track and the GFS for most of the time did not. So by any scoring method you'd like, if this recurves soon and hits Luzon or misses entirely, the GFS has the better record because the euro never called for a recurve. Look at the western side of the circulation envelope. It's hitting a wall.

The GFS had moved many (perhaps hundred) miles, and from a recurve to Samar landfall. Euro had also better consistency in dealing with the storm's track and intensity, thus, they only shifted a few miles and much lesser than of the GFS.

You're still missing the point. It doesn't matter how many miles either track has shifted. It's that the GFS (and many other models) almost always had a recurve over or east of the northern Philippines and the euro has never had it.

You said it yourself that the euro has been consistently westward into the central Philippines. If this recurves, how is never forecasting a recurve a good forecast? Or put another way, if this doesn't go westward over the central Philippines, how is a consistent forecast that it would do that a good forecast?

[stormstrike]

Based on my personal opinion, the eye of the storm will not reform and it will continue to weaken due to the effect of the northeast moonsoon and will not get a chance to regain intensity due to imminent land interaction or it might even curve to the north and dissipate but I could be wrong ...

if you look at latest satellite images, the eye is starting to pop up again.. and it looks better than a few hours ago.

[euro6208]

Although not a category 5, it is still forecast to make landfall as a major typhoon...Washi in 2011 was only a tropical storm when it killed over 1200 in the southern philippines...



Slight north shift

[cycloneye]

03:00z warning.

[RL3AO]

Its just finishing up an EWRC. I don't think we can make a blanket statement on anything right now...track or strength. This could very easily re-intensify again the next 24 hours.

Either way, its a fascinating system to watch from a models perspective. Seems to be right along a bifurcation point.

[ozonepete]

Its just finishing up an EWRC. I don't think we can make a blanket statement on anything right now...track or strength. This could very easily re-intensify again the next 24 hours.

Exactly! Thank you. We can conjecture but we should be using data to back up our conjectures. Personally I think the JTWC has been doing an excellent job. I have no complaints with the way they've forecast this so far at all.

[ozonepete]

So they are moving the track northward and dropping intensity steadily. That's what I've been expecting. They will likely keep shifting the track to more of a recurve as we go forward.

[euro6208]

Its just finishing up an EWRC. I don't think we can make a blanket statement on anything right now...track or strength. This could very easily re-intensify again the next 24 hours.

Exactly! Thank you. We can conjecture but we should be using data to back up our conjectures. Personally I think the JTWC has been doing an excellent job. I have no complaints with the way they've forecast this so far at all.

I agree...While ALL asian agencies were in favor of euro slamming near storm weary tacloban, JTWC favored a track right in the middle of euro and gfs and it is panning out and as you say could even recurve...