WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

ohhh...I think it's losing its eye..

EWC and moderate shear...

[Alyono]

Tacloban again. Models are converging on this city

[cycloneye]

Very long discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about this bad situation that is unfolding for areas that were hit by Haiyan.Also he adds a historic perspective about how HAGUPIT ranks among the most powerful cyclones of 2014.

Super Typhoon Hagupit has exploded into mighty Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb, and is threatening the same portion of the Philippine Islands devastated by Super Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013. The spiral bands of the massive storm are already bringing gusty winds and heavy rain showers to Samar and Leyte Islands, which bore the brunt of Haiyan’s massive storm surge and incredible winds--rated at 190 mph at landfall on November 7, 2013 by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Haiyan killed over 7,000 people in the Philippines, with Tacloban (population 200,000) suffering the greatest casualties, thanks to a 20+’ storm surge. Thousands of people still live in tents in Tacloban in the wake of Haiyan, and mass evacuations have begun to get these vulnerable people to safety.




Forecast for Hagupit

Hagupit is over very warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C (84 - 86°F) and is under moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Satellite loops show that Hagupit has a prominent 14-mile diameter eye, and a large area of very intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. The eyewall is lopsided, due to winds on the east side of the storm causing wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and and interfering with development of the thunderstorms on the east side of the storm. Thursday morning microwave images indicate that Hagupit is likely undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall shrinks, collapses, and is replaced by an outer eyewall with larger diameter. This process will likely cause a modest weakening of Hagupit, to perhaps 150 mph winds, by Friday. But with warm waters and moderate wind shear expected until landfall, Hagupit should be able to make landfall as a very dangerous Category 4 typhoon in the Central Philippines. The ridge of high pressure steering Hagupit has weakened since Wednesday, forcing the storm to slow its forward speed from 21 mph to 14 mph. The trough of low pressure passing to the north that is weakening the ridge will move eastwards past the Philippines on Friday, which will potentially allow the ridge to build back in stronger than before, and force Hagupit on a more westerly path—or even west-southwesterly path—as it approaches landfall on Samar or Leyte Island near 12 UTC Saturday. Most of the models that had shown Hagupit recurving to the north and missing the Philippines have now followed the lead of the reliable European model, which has been consistently showing a landfall near 18 UTC Saturday close to Tacloban on Leyte Island; each run of the usually-reliable GFS model over the past day has been coming more and more in line with the European model. A west-southwest track into Tacloban is a distinct possibility; hopefully we can avoid a track that funnels water in the Tacolban like Haiyan brought. Extreme winds, a large and deadly storm surge, and torrential rains causing massive flooding and dangerous mudslides are all of great concern for Hagupit’s landfall.


Hagupit is Earth's seventh Category 5 storm of 2014

Hagupit is Earth's seventh Category 5 storm of the year, making it the busiest year for these most extreme of tropical cyclones since 2005. In that year, eleven Category 5s were recorded (4 in the Atlantic, 2 in the Western Pacific, 3 in the South Indian, and 2 in the South Pacific.) Hagupit is the fifth Category 5 in the Western Pacific in 2014, and the fourth with a pressure of 915 mb or lower, as rated by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The last time four or more typhoons reached that intensity was 1997, when five did so. The other Category 5 storms of 2014:

Super Typhoon Nuri hit 180 mph winds east of Japan on November 3. The Japan Meteorological Agency put Nuri's lowest central pressure at 910 mb. The extratropical remounts of Nuri went on to bomb into one of the most intense extratropical storms ever observed in the waters near Alaska, with a central pressure of 924 mb.

Super Typhoon Vongfong also had 180 mph winds south of Japan. Vongfong battered Japan's Okinawa Island on October 9 - 10, killing 11 and doing $58 million in damage. The Japan Meteorological Agency put Vonfong's central pressure at 900 mb at the storm's peak intensity, the lowest pressure it has given to a storm since Super Typhoon Haiyan's 895 mb pressure in November 2013.

Super Typhoon Halong topped out at 160 mph winds with a central pressure of 920 mb on August 3, eventually making landfall in Japan on August 10 as a tropical storm. Halong killed 12 and did $4 million in damage.

Super Typhoon Genevieve (160 mph winds, 915 mb pressure) did not affect land.

Another Western Pacific Super Typhoon, Rammasun, was only rated a Cat 4 when it hit China's Hainan Island on July 17, killing 195 people and causing over $7 billion in damage. However, a pressure characteristic of a Category 5 storm, 899.2 mb, was recorded at Qizhou Island just before Rammasun hit Hainan Island. If this pressure is verified, it is likely that the storm will be upgraded to be 2014’s eighth Category 5 storm in post-season reanalysis.

The Eastern Pacific had one Cat 5 in 2014 that did not affect land: Marie (160 mph winds). The South Indian Ocean has had one Cat 5 this year, Tropical Cyclone Gillian in March (160 mph winds.) Gillian did not affect any land areas. Between 2000 - 2013, Earth averaged five Category 5 storms per year, with 51% of these occurring in the Western Pacific. Since 1996, only two years have had more than eight Category 5 storms in one year: 1997 (thirteen) and 2005 (eleven.)

Jeff Masters

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... #commentop

[euro6208]

Hagupit, 5th category 5 this year in the western pacific, 3rd with peak intensity of 155 knots...

Rammasun could be considered the 6th category 5 in the wpac but rated a category 4...A pressure characteristic of a Category 5 storm, 899.2 mb, was recorded at Qizhou Island just before Rammasun hit Hainan Island.

Between 2000 - 2013, Earth averaged five Category 5 storms per year, with 51% of these occurring in the Western Pacific. Since 1996, only two years have had more than eight Category 5 storms in one year: 1997 (thirteen) and 2005 (eleven.)

1997 had 10 monster category 5 in the west pacific alone...

The west pacific is in it's own league....

[wxman57]

OK this is now headed to Manila. Still not a good news for a capital with million people out there. I panicked at first when I saw the first set of forecast heading this Cebu. I think based on my analysis, this is not as monster as last year Haiyan. Except of course in shorelines where there can be storm surge on first set of landfall.

I hope people there will get evacuated as early as possible. All of them. There is no excuse for fatalities this time.

I wouldn't relax there yet. Latest ECMWF has the center passing just south of Tacloban and just north of Cebu City, which would put Cebu City in 50-70 mph sustained winds and higher gusts. The 12Z GFS shifted well south of the JTWC's track, taking the center 30 miles north of Tacloban and about 100nm north of Cebu City. Trend in the GFS is south, closer to the ECMWF. I think you have a good chance of seeing 40-50 mph sustained winds with gusts near hurricane force.

[euro6208]

eye collaspe due to shear and EWC but still plenty of water ahead for this to possibly restrengthen...

[euro6208]

Plenty of warm waters...

[cycloneye]

Here is a great graphic of the Philippines. My prayers go to the population of the area that may be affected and nothing bad happens.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track down to 145kts.

22W HAGUPIT 141204 1800 11.4N 130.4E WPAC 145 914

[cycloneye]

TY 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 4 December 2014
<Analyses at 04/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N11°25'(11.4°)
E130°25'(130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N440km(240NM)
S330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 05/06 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°30'(11.5°)
E129°00'(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 05/18 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°25'(11.4°)
E128°05'(128.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 06/18 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°20'(11.3°)
E125°55'(125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 07/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°40'(11.7°)
E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

[wxman57]

Looks like an eyewall replacement cycle has started. Secondary eyewall about 80NM across is forming. It shows up well on the final few images of the microwave loop:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_22W/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

[CrazyC83]

Looks like an eyewall replacement cycle has started. Secondary eyewall about 80NM across is forming. It shows up well on the final few images of the microwave loop:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_22W/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

That's going to be a storm surge threat for a very large area...extreme southeastern Luzon is quite heavily populated as well.

[cycloneye]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

OK this is now headed to Manila. Still not a good news for a capital with million people out there. I panicked at first when I saw the first set of forecast heading this Cebu. I think based on my analysis, this is not as monster as last year Haiyan. Except of course in shorelines where there can be storm surge on first set of landfall.

I hope people there will get evacuated as early as possible. All of them. There is no excuse for fatalities this time.

I wouldn't relax there yet. Latest ECMWF has the center passing just south of Tacloban and just north of Cebu City, which would put Cebu City in 50-70 mph sustained winds and higher gusts. The 12Z GFS shifted well south of the JTWC's track, taking the center 30 miles north of Tacloban and about 100nm north of Cebu City. Trend in the GFS is south, closer to the ECMWF. I think you have a good chance of seeing 40-50 mph sustained winds with gusts near hurricane force.

Doesn't Hagupit have a very large diameter?

BTW can you please run the wind map you did for Haiyan, here?

[somethingfunny]

The JMA and JTWC forecast cones that were just posted both seem to imply the westward turn should be occurring right now. Is it?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^Actually it is starting to slow down. JMA has the curving west in 12 hours time.

[cycloneye]

The JMA and JTWC forecast cones that were just posted both seem to imply the westward turn should be occurring right now. Is it?

Moving more west now and slower.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

OK this is now headed to Manila. Still not a good news for a capital with million people out there. I panicked at first when I saw the first set of forecast heading this Cebu. I think based on my analysis, this is not as monster as last year Haiyan. Except of course in shorelines where there can be storm surge on first set of landfall.

I hope people there will get evacuated as early as possible. All of them. There is no excuse for fatalities this time.

ACTUALLY, GFS shifted farther south which means JTWC will shift too. Latest run makes landfall SOUTH of Borongan and crosses the Visayas.

My quote: Ayaw sa pagkumpiyansa.

[ozonepete]

I just got home from work and have time to post. I'm becoming more optimistic now for the Philippines. The wide view water vapor (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/flash-wv.html) shows that the trough is digging a little deeper now and looks to be starting to interact with the circulation. Notice on the close-up floater satellites that the circulation envelope is starting to stretch southward to northward. Both of these point to a recurve starting. I am starting to doubt this is going into the central Philippines now. It looks like it will go towards Naga and could recurve even more sharply if that trough deepens a little more.

Also, even if that doesn't happen and it stays on a fairly westward track, that trough is bringing dry air on its back side and its getting pretty close to the storms circulation already. Obviously any dry air intrusion, along with its now getting close to land and the moderate shear going on will weaken it. All of this will most likely disrupt the ERC currently trying to take place and so I'm pretty sure this will never get any stronger now. All good news if it pans out.

[dexterlabio]

Looks like an eyewall replacement cycle has started. Secondary eyewall about 80NM across is forming. It shows up well on the final few images of the microwave loop:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_22W/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

The core has gotten larger as well. Good thing it will have a hard time enclosing that huge secondary eyewall...


EDIT: The moat is quite visible now in enhanced IR images...