Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Nairobi]

Can someone explain to me why this super typhoon, if it recurves WOULD NOT develop into a major extra tropical system? Ive been reading from Maue that the the jet is too strong

A powerful typhoon followed by a powerful extratropical recurving cyclone is not enough to buckle the downstream flows. The extratropical cyclone has to be in phase and slightly ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough causing the recurve. If the cyclone is at the base of the trough instead of being ahead, not much downstream effects will result.

Source: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... ated=false

[Nairobi]

After tonight, the GFS struggles to get Austin down to 55 for lows through Dec.18.

ECMWF bottoms out with a spine tingling 37 on Dec. 11. Protect your pets!

[Portastorm]

After tonight, the GFS struggles to get Austin down to 55 for lows through Dec.18.

ECMWF bottoms out with a spine tingling 37 on Dec. 11. Protect your pets!

We all saw how well that ECMWF forecast worked out today in Austin.

[Nairobi]

New ECMWF update is a chilling lowest temp for Austin of 45 on Dec 12. Not sure how Dallas will survive 41 on the 10th. Calgary has a heat wave beginning on Saturday for 5 days. But maybe that typhoon will change everything.

[Ntxw]

Quick question for any that can remember, anyone recall the events that transpired during winter 1965-1966 DJF regarding sensible weather? The only thing I can dig is that it was snowy the second half for DFW. Some of the atmospheric state (QBO etc) that is going on has some resemblance and I'm working on some re-analysis on that winter to see if it could potentially be in the pool of analogs with 1976-1977-2009.

[Nairobi]

For Austin, those months were bone dry and except for a 10 day period during the second half of January, mostly normal temps.

[Ntxw]

For Austin, those months were bone dry and except for a 10 day period during the second half of January, mostly normal temps.

Source?

[gatorcane]

Looks at those warm anomalies over Canada on the 10-day ECMWF...not a hint of any arctic air there.

[Ntxw]

NCDC re-analysis seems to suggest it was a cold winter but mild in December then something happened and it flipped. It was wetter overall across central/south, and southeast Texas. It seems that it fits the common theme of the 60s and 70s Nino's. Cold Novembers, then relaxing in December then turning brutal and locking in Jan/Feb like in 1976-1977, and 1977-1978. All of them began to change by mid December and later and gave way to extreme blocking. I think we should give some weight into 1965-1966 as well. This Nino was stronger but the Pacific SST configuration is much closer than recent Nino's.

[BigB0882]

If Canada is going to end up so above normal, where in the world would cold temperatures come from? Is it on the other side of the globe right now? Will the cold air filter over with a signal flip or change?

[Ntxw]

If Canada is going to end up so above normal, where in the world would cold temperatures come from? Is it on the other side of the globe right now? Will the cold air filter over with a signal flip or change?

The cold will be locked up in the Arctic circle. A warmer Canada if air comes from them, is still below normal for us as long as we don't get bombarded by Pacific zonal flow. If not for the PNA we will be torching. Deep storms can cross from the southern jet stream, as typical during El Nino's, can bring down whatever cold is there. That is why the climo for El Nino is warm north and colder south. You don't get the big Arctic outbreaks, but you get below average from persistent chill from clouds and modified cold fronts behind systems.

[somethingfunny]

If Canada is going to end up so above normal, where in the world would cold temperatures come from? Is it on the other side of the globe right now? Will the cold air filter over with a signal flip or change?

In this sort of hypothetical pattern, the cold air down here in the South would originate from low upper level heights and from overcast temperatures keeping things generally chilly. Keep in mind that blue is not really as dramatic a color on those maps as we like to imagine that it is - that map is only showing around a 5 degree Celsius (~10 degree Fahrenheit) anomaly. Our average high temperature this time of year is around 60 degrees meaning that map is basically calling for highs around 45-55 degrees.... easily achieved this time of year without any arctic air... nothing more than some chronic overcast and rainfall caused by a passing storm system.

Ntxw beat me to it

[South Texas Storms]

If Canada is going to end up so above normal, where in the world would cold temperatures come from? Is it on the other side of the globe right now? Will the cold air filter over with a signal flip or change?

The cold will be locked up in the Arctic circle. A warmer Canada if air comes from them, is still below normal for us as long as we don't get bombarded by Pacific zonal flow. If not for the PNA we will be torching. Deep storms can cross from the southern jet stream, as typical during El Nino's, can bring down whatever cold is there. That is why the climo for El Nino is warm north and colder south. You don't get the big Arctic outbreaks, but you get below average from persistent chill from clouds and modified cold fronts behind systems.

Yeah, you're correct Ntxw. The weather pattern looks El-Nino like for at least the next week. An active subtropical jet stream will likely remain over our region bringing us several days with cloudy skies and rain chances.

[hriverajr]

This is interesting stuff....
https://twitter.com/mlhaden/status/539888012117934080/photo/1

[orangeblood]

The GFS ensemble members are having an incredibly difficult time forecasting the AO in the 10-14 day time frame...check out these spreads



Once we can get he AO to pop below at least 1 SD negative once again, real winter can begin

[Ntxw]

This is interesting stuff....
https://twitter.com/mlhaden/status/539888012117934080/photo/1

That's really cool, I've never heard of it before! It seems they are very high up, I wonder if the connection sits somewhere in the stratosphere?

[hriverajr]

Me neither.. that was a first for me....

[Texas Snowman]

Looks at those warm anomalies over Canada on the 10-day ECMWF...not a hint of any arctic air there.

Screamer is going to love that!

[gatorcane]

This is interesting stuff....
https://twitter.com/mlhaden/status/539888012117934080/photo/1

That's really cool, I've never heard of it before! It seems they are very high up, I wonder if the connection sits somewhere in the stratosphere?

very cool had no idea about this and the possible teleconnection! Thanks for sharing this link...

[Nairobi]

For Austin, those months were bone dry and except for a 10 day period during the second half of January, mostly normal temps.

Source?

Weather Underground for KATT.

November 1965 had 0 freezes and 0.68 inches of rain.
December 1965 had 0 freezes and 1.13 inches of rain.
January 1966 had 8 freezes and 0.45 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation (LEP).
February 1966 had 9 freezes and 0.94 inches of LEP.
March 1966 had 0 freezes and 0.06 inches of rain.

So, 17 total freezes for the season.