Texas Winter 2014-2015

[JDawg512]

So no North American pattern-busting, recurving super typhoon. Those are rare anyway.

The GFS hardly gets Austin down to 50 for lows through Dec. 17th.

It's 40 right now, probably will bottom out in the Austin area in the upper 30s.

[srainhoutx]

The Southern jet stream looks to be very active as a long fetch of moisture/disturbances ride East across Northern Mexico into Texas during the next week or so. The forecast is looking very damp and dreary in the extended range. We typically see this sort of pattern in January/February in low end El Nino years, so expect more clouds the sun into next week. Higher elevations of the Southern Rockies could see a lot of snow as well. Regarding the Typhoon, the Euro trended slightly further N overnight and is likely the outlier, so as a weakness develops N of the Typhoon in about 4 days, recurve to the NNW to N is the most likely solution and as it transitions to extra tropical, changes may lie ahead as the system wraps up near the Aleutian Islands in about 10 days.

[gatorcane]

The 00Z ECMWF is showing some cold anomalies for Texas, Deep south, and Eastern seaboard of the United States by hour 192:



The 00Z GFS is completely the opposite:

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z ECMWF is showing some cold anomalies for Texas, Deep south, and Eastern seaboard of the United States by hour 192:

The GFS is completely the opposite:

The Euro solution is due to a stronger shortwave embedded in the Southern jet. There is some modified cold Canadian and Pacific air associated with this feature and the CMC and its ensembles sort of agree with the OP Euro. The abundance of Eastern Pacific moisture bodes well for California and the Desert SW in this fast flow pattern. Also I suspect the Northern Mountains of New Mexico into Colorado and even the higher mountains of Mexico will see some healthy snow totals in this pattern.

[WeatherNewbie]

7th freeze for DFW just occured as of 9pm. FW is calling for low 20s, should be 8th freeze in a few hours.

But the ECMWF said no surface freezes for Dallas through the 10th...

[Ntxw]

8th freeze this morning. The clouds played some havoc again so it stayed mostly around 30-32. FW has been having some fun forecasting these cloud decks.

[Ntxw]

7th freeze for DFW just occured as of 9pm. FW is calling for low 20s, should be 8th freeze in a few hours.

But the ECMWF said no surface freezes for Dallas through the 10th...

From some days ago the models whiffed at this arctic front. They all hung it up in Kansas. It plowed under it's own weight.

[Portastorm]

So no North American pattern-busting, recurving super typhoon. Those are rare anyway.

The GFS hardly gets Austin down to 50 for lows through Dec. 17th.

It's 40 right now, probably will bottom out in the Austin area in the upper 30s.

Yep ... bottomed out at 38 at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County.

I love the Euro as much as the next guy but it is fallible.

[Texas Snowman]

Almost noon in Texomaland and it is STILL 32 degrees.

Second day in a row that it is cold and Decemberish.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: GFS debacle on next week off 00z run ( too flat, not cold enough) about to become apparent to its worshippers on 12z run.

[gatorcane]

@BigJoeBastardi: GFS debacle on next week off 00z run ( too flat, not cold enough) about to become apparent to its worshippers on 12z run.

He is right. Complete flip on the 12Z GFS to much colder for the Eastern half of the United States including eastern Texas for next week.

[srainhoutx]

The pattern is very typical of that of a weak El Nino. We usually see the coldest anomalies across the Southern tier of States with above normal anomalies across The West into Canada. The guidance will likely be very volatile with the pattern change expected near the Day 10 timeframe. Add to the mix the eventual resolution of our WPAC Typhoon and whether or not we see it recurve and transition to a powerful extratropical Super Storm somewhere near the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea. Remember the PNO is strongly positive and the PNA is shown by virtually all the guidance to spike very positive. The AO is beginning to show signs of falling back to a negative status and if the extratropical storm does in fact develop, a strongly negative AO is very possible. Time will tell. All that said this is not an outright torchy pattern in our part of the world, so expect daily flip flops as the guidance attempts to resolve the chaotic pattern across the Pacific.

[Ntxw]

The pattern is very typical of that of a weak El Nino. We usually see the coldest anomalies across the Southern tier of States with above normal anomalies across The West into Canada. The guidance will likely be very volatile with the pattern change expected near the Day 10 timeframe. Add to the mix the eventual resolution of our WPAC Typhoon and whether or not we see it recurve and transition to a powerful extratropical Super Storm somewhere near the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea. Remember the PNO is strongly positive and the PNA is shown by virtually all the guidance to spike very positive. The AO is beginning to show signs of falling back to a negative status and if the extratropical storm does in fact develop, a strongly negative AO is very possible. Time will tell. All that said this is not an outright torchy pattern in our part of the world, so expect daily flip flops as the guidance attempts to resolve the chaotic pattern across the Pacific.

The PNA I think should be watched. In the past (last year for example) I've touted the +PNA is not so good without storms. Well we have storms (it is a good signal to watch when you have El Nino) so if you get something undercutting it, you don't just have NW flow and stuff slides east. There are good indicators of baja lows. Whether or not the typhoon recurves I think still feeds into the STJ. That with a progressing MJO will give models fits, they won't see stuff until within shorter range. If you get a deepening storm you can make cold air aloft. Sneaky stuff they are.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Can someone explain to me why this super typhoon, if it recurves WOULD NOT develop into a major extra tropical system? Ive been reading from Maue that the the jet is too strong

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z PGFS shows a big time upper low crossing the state around the 15th with strong storms ahead of it and lots of precip behind though not cold enough for snow for most of the state. That is followed by an even colder upper low over NM to end the run. Can't take any of that at face value, but I do expect an active southern stream along with progressively colder air through the month. If this typhoon manages to recurve that will serve to speed up the arrival of the cold air by dropping the AO earlier (9-12th) than would happen without a recurve (15-20th).

[Ntxw]

Can someone explain to me why this super typhoon, if it recurves WOULD NOT develop into a major extra tropical system? Ive been reading from Maue that the the jet is too strong

It's latitude is very low and it is quite small. There is already big storms (in reference to Maue's jet is too strong) cross the NPAC through the Aleutians. They would simply absorb it. Unlike Nuri which the NPAC had ridging and was quiet so the large typhoon was the only big dog in town to take advantage. The deeper you get into the winter the less influence recurving typhoons have.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I see. Thanks.

[cycloneye]

It looks more and more that recently upgraded to Typhoon by JMA HAGUPIT will not recurve and even if it does that,it would be torned apart by the cold surge and strong shear north of 20N at this time of year in that basin.

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow: It looks more and more that now Typhoon HAGUPIT will not recurve and even if it does that,it would be torned apart by the cold surge and strong shear north of 20N at this time of year in that basin.

Likely will not change the eventual outcome of the sensible weather later down the road. Tropical forcing as well as the MJO and the teleconnection indices will respond. I've seen too many folks across the web worrying that this temporary reprieve from winter is showing the way as to what January and February may hold. Winter has just started....from a meteorological standpoint.

[Texas Snowman]

Not much of a reprieve from winter, either yesterday or today in the Red River Valley.

A freeze yesterday evening (down to 28), a freeze overnight (down to 25), and we now have eight official freezes in the Denison/Sherman area.

And after a day-time high of 39 yesterday with a stiff northerly breeze, it's still only 38 degrees here at 1:20 p.m. in the afternoon.

It will warm up a bit over the next few days, but a solid start to December in the Red River Valley.

Unless you like to ride bicycles!