WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

excited of the storm yet terrified for the destruction...

[dexterlabio]

excited of the storm yet terrified for the destruction...

hope your excitement jinxes this storm from coming to the Philippines.

[euro6208]

Damaging winds occuring in Woleai and worsening conditions for Yap state...

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 021045
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST TUE DEC 2 2014

...HAGUPIT INTENSIFYING JUST SOUTH OF WOLEAI...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON SATAWAL...WOLEAI...FARAULEP...FAIS...ULITHI...NGULU...
YAP AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS IN YAP STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND NGULU IN YAP STATE.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP
STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...FAIS AND ULITHI IN
YAP STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.4
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
145 MILES SOUTH OF FARAULEP
195 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SATAWAL
350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
480 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
480 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND
690 MILES EAST OF KOROR

TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS MOVING WEST AT 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 70 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS PASSING SOUTH OF WOLEAI THIS EVENING...
AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF FAIS AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO YAP AND NGULU WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

...SATAWAL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AT SATAWAL. REMAIN IN A STURDY
SHELTER OVERNIGHT. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO
12 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES TONIGHT. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN AN EXTENSION OF LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS IN
POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.

...FARAULEP...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT HAS TRACKED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OF
FARAULEP THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
SPEEDS. REMAIN IN A STURDY SHELTER OVERNIGHT. LISTEN FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS UNTIL SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH TONIGHT WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10
TO 12 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES TONIGHT. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.

...WOLEAI...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED AT WOLEAI. REMAIN IN A STURDY
SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES OVERNIGHT. LISTEN FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS UNTIL SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE AS THEY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHEAST AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 14 TO 17 FEET WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF OF 15
TO 18 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES TONIGHT. INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD EXPOSURES. RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.

...FAIS AND ULITHI...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF FAIS AND
ULITHI AS A TYPHOON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY NORTHWARD DEVIATION OF
THE TRACK COULD BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO FAIS AND ULITHI FROM ABOUT
NOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. REVIEW YOUR DISASTER
PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ADEQUATE FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE IN CASE OF A TYPHOON. IF
NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PEAK AT
25 TO 35 MPH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO BETWEEN
15 AND 25 MPH WHILE SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10
TO 12 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE
AREAS.

...NGULU...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO PASS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF
NGULU AS A TYPHOON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY SOUTHWARD DEVIATION IN THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS. TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE
FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A
DESIGNATED SHELTER.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND VEER
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...PEAKING AT 50 TO 60 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN
15 AND 25 MPH BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 14 TO 17 FEET WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF OF 15
TO 18 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD
EXPOSURES. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE
AREAS.

...YAP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO PASS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF
YAP AS A TYPHOON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY NORTHWARD DEVIATION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS. TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ADEQUATE FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO
TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN BUILD FURTHER TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND PEAK AT 60 TO 80 MPH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH TO BETWEEN
20 AND 30 MPH AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF OF 18
TO 22 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY ALONG WINDWARD
EXPOSURES. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND IN
POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 300 AM CHST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

STANKO

[dexterlabio]

Didn't see the complete 06z GFS run until now...so I was wrong it also did show Hagupit succumbing from the cold surge and dissipating near 20N latitude. Mow that's realistic.

[wxman57]

Euro is the only model indicating a Philippines landfall. In past storms this season, it has been too far west while the GFS has indicated recurvature. In that respect, the GFS has been closer than the Euro this season. Will THIS storm perform similarly? Too soon to tell.

[stormstrike]

excited of the storm yet terrified for the destruction...

good luck to that man.. had the same feeling days before Haiyan.. and yeah..days of that feelings turned to months of regret and hardship..

but then again..another big storm is coming..oh well..i'm still gonna wait for that recurve..

[euro6208]

JTWC reportng 4.0 and KNES upps to 4.5...Typhoon in the next few hours...Average of this is 70 knots but i'd go higher given the rapid development of Hagupit...




TXPQ28 KNES 020941
TCSWNP

A. 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 02/0832Z

C. 6.2N

D. 144.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 4.5 IS BASED ON 1.5 BANDING. MET IS 4.0 AND PT IS
4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

winds at woleai were 77 kph gust from the east before station went offline...

[cycloneye]

Up to Typhoon.

22W HAGUPIT 141202 1200 6.1N 143.5E WPAC 70 970

[euro6208]

Up to Typhoon.

22W HAGUPIT 141202 1200 6.1N 143.5E WPAC 70 970

Right call...Things getting really serious now!

[talkon]

JMA just upgraded this to a STS

STS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 2 December 2014

<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N6°10'(6.2°)
E143°25'(143.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 03/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N7°25'(7.4°)
E140°20'(140.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N8°30'(8.5°)
E137°05'(137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°25'(10.4°)
E131°30'(131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°40'(10.7°)
E128°25'(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

Model MU high-res shows a 938MB super typhoon just east of the Philippines in the 102 hour frame:

[cycloneye]

TPPN11 PGTW 021209

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 02/1132Z

C. 6.10N

D. 143.65E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN TIGHTLY
WRAPS 1.05 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT
AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0644Z 6.08N 144.67E SSMS
02/0720Z 6.12N 144.53E MMHS
02/1027Z 6.02N 143.97E SSMS


CHAPPOTIN

[dexterlabio]

if Hagupit turns to a STY, 2014 will tie with 2002 having 8 super typhoons, behind 1965 and 1997 record high of 11.

[Alyono]

the issue is MU is indicating a current WNW motion when it is moving west

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's due west, not WNW. In fact, it dipped by 0.1 latitude.

[gatorcane]

Wow very impressive, saved loop:

[talkon]

It's due west, not WNW. In fact, it dipped by 0.1 latitude.

Umm, I think Alyono is saying that the issue with MU is that it analysed the current motion wrong (It analysed WNW while Hagupit was moving W) so the model forecast is maybe wrong.

BTW, What does MU stands for? I only know GFS.

[euro6208]

Scary track...Possible major typhoon for Palau, a haiyan ravaged nation...