cycloneye wrote::uarrow: Tx13,this will have a long life not go to cooler waters rapidly as many EPAC systems do?
No, cooler waters shouldn't be an issue for this storm. Right now, anomalous ridging exists across northern Mexico, steering 93E on a general west/west-northwest track.
If that were to continue, the system would eventually reach the 26C isotherm south of Baja California. By day 5, however, this ridging is eroded as a trough digs southward; this should cause 93E/Vance to curve northward and eventually northeastward:
The SHIPS keeps SSTs near 29C for the next 5 days:
SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3
At the end of the day, this may be a significant threat to the southwestern coastline of Mexico.