Texas Fall-2014

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

See ....?! Just like South Texas Storms and srainhoutx said it would.

This is true. Just my nature to check multiple sources.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm DEFINITELY liking the "tune" of the last sentence from EWX. C'mon Nino!

FXUS64 KEWX 272034
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HI RES ARW/NMM AND NAM12
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
FOCUS FOR PRECIP WEDNESDAY MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA IF THIS PAN OUT. REGARDLESS...COOLER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY THURSDAY WITH AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY NEAR THE MOIST AXIS AND STALLED
FRONT. EVENTUALLY A SECONDARY SURGE/FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND SHARPEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A FEW STREAMER TYPE
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY (ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
OFFICIAL FORECAST). FORECAST MAY GET MORE INTERESTING BEYOND THE
7 DAY...DURING MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. STAY TUNED.

YOU MAY GET SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BUT IT WON'T BE THE KIND YOU DESIRE!

NOR WILL IT COME....UNLESS MY ABILITY TO POST VIDEOS IS REINSTATED.

MY ARMY IS NOW IN PLACE AND MY LANDS ARE SLOWLY TURNING WHITE!

THE TIME IS QUICKLY APPROACHING:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14AlnOK9Wso

YOU *MAY* WIN THAT WHICH YOU MOST DESIRE...







BUT DO NOT DECEIVE YOURSELVES.....




THERE *WILL* BE A PRICE TO PAY !!!

IT'S UP TO YOU VBHOUTEX!!!

You need to share some of that Canadian GREY GOOSE with us Texans. Or is that topic for the Winter thread? I get confused on the historical S2K references, especially when bouncing among different threads.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose verifies.

"Today's forecast solutions indicate a large trough of low pressure will push inland along the West Coast late Friday into Saturday. The trough is forecast to sink southeast to the Desert Southwest Sunday into Monday and then pull up stationary. At the same time, another cold front is forecast to forecast to push south across the state on Monday. This set up is expected to cause a cloudy sky to develop across the region beginning late Sunday into Monday. A few light rain showers look to develop beginning late Monday but a better chance for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms is expected next Tuesday through Thursday as the upper trough slowly pushes east. There is still much uncertainty in the exact details with this system but it does appear there will be a good chance for some significant rain. Early rainfall forecasts suggest totals of 1-2 inches will be possible. High temperatures next week will generally be in the 70s with low temperatures in the 50s to the low 60s."

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[TheProfessor]

unless you live in either panhandles you are probably loving the 6z GFS then

[Portastorm]

Bob Rose verifies.

"Today's forecast solutions indicate a large trough of low pressure will push inland along the West Coast late Friday into Saturday. The trough is forecast to sink southeast to the Desert Southwest Sunday into Monday and then pull up stationary. At the same time, another cold front is forecast to forecast to push south across the state on Monday. This set up is expected to cause a cloudy sky to develop across the region beginning late Sunday into Monday. A few light rain showers look to develop beginning late Monday but a better chance for widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms is expected next Tuesday through Thursday as the upper trough slowly pushes east. There is still much uncertainty in the exact details with this system but it does appear there will be a good chance for some significant rain. Early rainfall forecasts suggest totals of 1-2 inches will be possible. High temperatures next week will generally be in the 70s with low temperatures in the 50s to the low 60s."

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

Those rainfall amounts could go higher for next week if the latest GFS and Euro runs verify ... both bring a Mexican-land falling Pacific tropical system into the state ... something which srainhoutx has been talking about.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Those scenarios would be nice. Bring on the showers! Im starting to think Nov will be a doozy.

[weatherdude1108]

Hope so! I know this is old news preaching at the choir, but our lakes and aquifers need the REGULAR saturation and runoff, versus 8-inch rain bombs in the urban cores, which benefit no one. Rain bombs in remote areas upstream of drinking water sources are the lesser of the two evils, but steady rain is ideal. Nice to see the November possibilities.

[Portastorm]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Frontal system moving southward across N TX this morning will cross SE TX on Wednesday.

Upper level pattern across the US is starting to change which will usher in a changing surface pattern and result in something more than to status quo of the past few weeks. Surface front over N TX currently will drift southward and reach the TX coast Wednesday afternoon. Low level moisture continues to increase and pool over the region, but the main jet stream dynamics will remain fairly well removed from our area. Thus frontal lift will be the main culprit for any rainfall on Wednesday as the boundary crosses. Forecast models are not overly excited about rain chances so will go with 30-40% for the area.

A stronger secondary front crosses the area Friday morning resulting in stronger cold air advection and strong drying. North winds will rapidly increase Friday with dewpoints falling into the 40’s. Not expecting much if any rainfall will this front as the Wednesday front should scour out the moisture. Main effect will be gusty winds up to 20-25mph on Friday.

Halloween Evening:
Near ideal conditions with temperatures falling from the mid 70’s at around 600pm to the mid 60’s around 1000pm under clear skies, weakening winds, and low humidity. Sun set Friday is at 636pm.

Next Week:
Rare long string of very nice weather will be ended next week as the US upper air pattern continues to undergo change. The result will be a large scale trough over the western US, possibly becoming cut off from the main flow. The upper flow over TX transitions to a very moist SW flow and as luck would have it…there sits an eastern Pacific tropical system just waiting to supply moisture northward. Large scale trough will send a stalling cold front into TX early in the week while strong moisture advection returns from the Gulf of Mexico starting late Sunday. EPAC tropical system (93E) currently well south of Mexico will become a depression and storm over the next 12-24 hour and track slowly W to WNW south of the Mexican coast. Position of the mean trough over the SW US is in a favorable position to bring copious mid and high level moisture from this system NNE into TX. Models are in surprisingly good agreement on a wet pattern developing late Monday into the middle part of next week and this type of pattern set up has in the past produced some big rains and flooding across the state.

[Portastorm]

Boy, that 12z GFS op run has something for everyone in Texas over the next 16 days. Several cold fronts and several rainy periods. Sure hope it verifies!

[srainhoutx]

Boy, that 12z GFS op run has something for everyone in Texas over the next 16 days. Several cold fronts and several rainy periods. Sure hope it verifies!

It is clear the entire pattern reshuffles across North America after next weeks storm system passes. It appears via the GFS that a robust -EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern develops which is indicative of a weak El Nino pattern. The sub tropical jet becomes rather noisy and the wave length shorten with a front arriving every 4 to 6 days.

[aggiecutter]

JB has his updated Winter forecast out. I posted the graphics on the winter thread. Still no snow for Austin this winter: 133% * 0 = 0

[South Texas Storms]

JB has his updated Winter forecast out. I posted the graphics on the winter thread. Still no snow for Austin this winter: 133% * 0 = 0

Alright aggiecutter, I just moved to Austin from College Station (graduated from Texas A&M in May) and I want snow this winter! I think there's a decent chance Porta, myself, and other Austinites will be receiving some snowfall this winter.

[JDawg512]

JB has his updated Winter forecast out. I posted the graphics on the winter thread. Still no snow for Austin this winter: 133% * 0 = 0

Alright aggiecutter, I just moved to Austin from College Station (graduated from Texas A&M in May) and I want snow this winter! I think there's a decent chance Porta, myself, and other Austinites will be receiving some snowfall this winter.

I agree.. With the wetter shift compared to last winter, our chances for wintery precipitation is looking good despite what some say.

[weatherdude1108]

FXUS64 KEWX 282043
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
343 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE INTERESTING EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON MONDAY...AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. AGAIN...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MENTIONED IN FORECAST. SOME DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FASTER INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...LEAVING BEHIND LOW CUTT OFF WEST OF BAJA. GFS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH TROUGH COMING OUT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH NOT CUTTING OFF...MOVING
DEEP THROUGH MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE GFS ABSORBS THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE TROUGH...WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
PACIFIC TAP OF REMNANT MOISTURE AND ENERGY MOVING RIGHT TROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY...COINCIDING WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT. STARTED AN UPWARD TREND IN THE POPS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...NOW INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SHOULD THE
PACIFIC TAP VERIFY...THEN POPS COULD END UP MUCH HIGHER...AND
BENEFICIAL QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THEN HIGH PWATS FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
GIVEN DAY 7 FORECAST...MAY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS FOR MODEL
CONSENSUS TO DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.

[Ntxw]

Boy, that 12z GFS op run has something for everyone in Texas over the next 16 days. Several cold fronts and several rainy periods. Sure hope it verifies!

It is clear the entire pattern reshuffles across North America after next weeks storm system passes. It appears via the GFS that a robust -EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern develops which is indicative of a weak El Nino pattern. The sub tropical jet becomes rather noisy and the wave length shorten with a front arriving every 4 to 6 days.

ENS says the Nino will be putting some input into the pattern with Aleutian low kicking in. With split flow and blocking in Eastern Canada many will like what will transpire as we move deeper into the season.

[Ntxw]

Here comes the subtropical jet





Don't sleep on the cold front passing on Halloween either, we may spend most of the day in the 50s and dip into the low 40s/30s Saturday morning. And then it starts getting wet early next week. All down hill from here folks.

[Ntxw]

And to continue the -AO snow cover theme, looking at the latest data (quite awhile since an update due to outages at NESDIS) this year's snow cover extent and growth (advance) is remarkably expansive. It is in near record company achieved only by 1976, 1977, 1978, and 2009 <- this one being the lowest of the bunch. That's one heck of a list and they all featured very cold and particularly snowy winters. In fact the October average for both indexes roughly sits near 2nd place behind 1976.

Tis the year for snow

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I just saw a tweet from JB saying in one tweet that 2013 was second to 1976, then in a retweet it said 2012..... Two totally different years for us. Any clarification?

[Ntxw]

I just saw a tweet from JB saying in one tweet that 2013 was second to 1976, then in a retweet it said 2012..... Two totally different years for us. Any clarification?

He picked week 43 or late October not October as whole when averaged. 2013 started with lots of snow but kind of stabilized the rest of the month. So if you look at just week 43 (the past week or so) then yes 2013 is included but overall it isn't within the top 5 for the month. By the end of that month Eurasian snow cover had melted down to roughly half of what we are now. Snow advance (SAI) was very low as a result and last winter ended up with very +AO.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I just saw a tweet from JB saying in one tweet that 2013 was second to 1976, then in a retweet it said 2012..... Two totally different years for us. Any clarification?

He picked week 43 or late October not October as whole when averaged. 2013 started with lots of snow but kind of stabilized the rest of the month. So if you look at just week 43 (the past week or so) then yes 2013 is included but overall it isn't within the top 5 for the month. By the end of that month Eurasian snow cover had melted down to roughly half of what we are now. Snow advance (SAI) was very low as a result and last winter ended up with very +AO.

Makes sense! So 2012 probably did the same thing? Stabilized or melting after this time period which lead to a +AO?