Texas Fall-2014

[weatherdude1108]

Don't get me wrong, this is beautiful Texas Fall weather. But can anyone explain meteorologically why are stuck in this tedious, DRY weather pattern rut, especially as we are entering an El Niño phase?

The Atlantic has dominated the past 2 weeks with tropical systems. All of the tropical feed and storms have been fed into the train in the Atlantic by the westerlies eastward leaving us under subsidence (Fay, Gonzalo, and other disturbances). The WPAC and EPAC have been quiet due to the intraseasonal changes of the MJO with no tropical connection from the Pacific. When the Atlantic is active (and there is no systems landfalling in Texas) it's not good news for us.

Ahhh, intraseasonal changes. Makes sense. I guess I'm just being impatient. Looking forward to early November changes! Thanks Ntxw!

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

I love it! Srainhoutx's first "stepping down" comment of the Fall season. Only good things will come of it.

Yeah, the GFS has been quite consistent in showing a very strong frontal passage Halloween weekend or shortly thereafter. With the SOI tanking as Ntxw noted, we should see a more active southern jet and more storminess early next month. Enjoy the nice warm weather now before the bottom starts falling out, folks.

I'm ready! Bring it!

[Ralph's Weather]

The 00Z GFS shows below 50 degree temps for E TX from hour 252 to the end of the run with possible freezes. It is not showing much precip maybe a bit with the front then a bit with what looks like an upper low at the end of the run. This seems like the type of weather that we will see often this winter though I am not sure we will get it in early November. However it plays our Fall is on the way in 10-14 days.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

One thing im noticing on the 500MB chart, JB noted that he thinks just north of Alaska, a low will be present much of the winter. This Low will pull much of the cold air from siberia and bring it down into North america.

What is causing that massive low deep into the Pacific? That trough is huge.

Downstream a bit more, the setup looks very similar to what we have to expect this winter. Eastern plains centered Arctic High with moisture coming in from the Pacific. Love it!

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z is not as cool and much more progressive than the 00Z. It is still showing a bit of rain with the front on Friday then temps 10-15F below average for Halloween weekend.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Look at the 384 on the 12z though.

[Ntxw]

We can pretty much toss today's model runs just as a note. NESDIS data is not feeding into model input which is valuable satellite data. The ECMWF page has acknowledge this "blackout" over North America thus the runs are not good.

[JDawg512]

Seeing some light to possibly moderate rainfall moving in from Mexico. Not sure how much is reaching the ground as it gets closer to Central Texas. I'm hoping some rain drops over Austin, even if its a little.

[JDawg512]

I can confirm that it's been sprinkling for the past hour here at my house and just in the last couple of minutes has increased to light rainfall. It's not really going to amout to anything other than a trace, but it's nice to go outside and enjoy the soft raindrops falling and the cool air of the night.

Hope everyone has a great night.

[TheProfessor]

There is going to be a solar Eclipse latter today in North Texas

[weatherdude1108]

It's actually sprinkling at 6:45am as I walk the dog.

[Ralph's Weather]

Getting a bit of rain here this morning. I doubted it would make it here, but sure glad it has.

[South Texas Storms]

Wow, long range GFS sure is chilly for Texas in the 10-14 day period. High temperatures struggling to reach 60 degrees with low temperatures near 40 degrees.

[Portastorm]

Wow, long range GFS sure is chilly for Texas in the 10-14 day period. High temperatures struggling to reach 60 degrees with low temperatures near 40 degrees.

Well, the GFS has consistently shown that for days now. The question is my mind is how valid is that forecast based on what we're hearing today about throwing out the model runs due to the satellite issues ongoing with NOAA.

[South Texas Storms]

Wow, long range GFS sure is chilly for Texas in the 10-14 day period. High temperatures struggling to reach 60 degrees with low temperatures near 40 degrees.

Well, the GFS has consistently shown that for days now. The question is my mind is how valid is that forecast based on what we're hearing today about throwing out the model runs due to the satellite issues ongoing with NOAA.

Well from what I understand, the satellite data is up and running again and is being ingested into today's 12z runs.

[weatherdude1108]

I probably shouldn't even bother checking the weather for the next couple of weeks. But, that's not likely to happen. Anything can change with the models -- in even just one day as we have all seen in the past. That's why I have to check in!

Meanwhile, "copy and paste" forecast.

Meteorologist Bob Rose of LCRA:

Sea surface temperature anomalies and pressure patterns in the Pacific and across other parts of the world appear to be influencing the Jet Stream at the current time, causing it stay mainly across the northern latitudes. Today's forecast solutions indicate we'll begin to see a bit more variability in the position of the Jet Stream over the next couple of weeks. But unfortunately, a pattern favorable for transporting significant moisture and rain into Texas is still not seen for at least the next couple of weeks.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[South Texas Storms]

I probably shouldn't even bother checking the weather for the next couple of weeks. But, that's not likely to happen. Anything can change with the models -- in even just one day as we have all seen in the past. That's why I have to check in!

Meanwhile, "copy and paste" forecast.

Meteorologist Bob Rose of LCRA:

Sea surface temperature anomalies and pressure patterns in the Pacific and across other parts of the world appear to be influencing the Jet Stream at the current time, causing it stay mainly across the northern latitudes. Today's forecast solutions indicate we'll begin to see a bit more variability in the position of the Jet Stream over the next couple of weeks. But unfortunately, a pattern favorable for transporting significant moisture and rain into Texas is still not seen for at least the next couple of weeks.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

Actually, the 12z runs of the GFS and Euro are showing a cold front moving through the state during the middle of next week bringing rain chances to central Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like a solid front comes down to the SE in about 8 days. Comes straight from Alaska.

[JDawg512]

Well I guess EWX is wearing their skeptic glasses for this morning's update...

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=EWX&StateCode=TX&SafeCityName=Austin

By the way, whatever happened to those two really good meteorologists? They just disappeared and we are back to the same old dull discussions that EWX is famous for..

[Portastorm]

0z operational GFS has completely reversed on the weather around Halloween weekend and beyond. No hint of a cold front now. Mainly average to above average temps into November. Haven't looked yet at the ensembles or Euro.