Texas Fall-2014

[dhweather]

The large scale weather pattern across the globe will be changing the end of October into November. The JMA and other long range guidance which thus far has shown -AO dominating North America's weather regimes. So far true arctic air has not been in the pattern but rather from very low heights. Week 2 and 3 shows the GOA beginning to switch from lower pressures to higher pressures. That means ridging, and ridging in Alaska means -EPO tank is a possibility.

Isn't that basically what happened last November? Boom, early December winter weather.

[texas1836]

The large scale weather pattern across the globe will be changing the end of October into November. The JMA and other long range guidance which thus far has shown -AO dominating North America's weather regimes. So far true arctic air has not been in the pattern but rather from very low heights. Week 2 and 3 shows the GOA beginning to switch from lower pressures to higher pressures. That means ridging, and ridging in Alaska means -EPO tank is a possibility.

Maybe you can answer my question on the Winter thread, speaking of a, large scale weather pattern change across the globe.

[Ntxw]

The large scale weather pattern across the globe will be changing the end of October into November. The JMA and other long range guidance which thus far has shown -AO dominating North America's weather regimes. So far true arctic air has not been in the pattern but rather from very low heights. Week 2 and 3 shows the GOA beginning to switch from lower pressures to higher pressures. That means ridging, and ridging in Alaska means -EPO tank is a possibility.

Isn't that basically what happened last November? Boom, early December winter weather.

Pretty much, the EPO this year the first 15 days of October is actually even more negative than last year at the same time. Last year began tanking the end of October around Halloween. This year will have the -AO with it. We'll have to see still very far out, just looking at the overall height tendencies.

EPO





Unfortunately the models overall do not look so wet the next 5-7 days.

[Portastorm]

The large scale weather pattern across the globe will be changing the end of October into November. The JMA and other long range guidance which thus far has shown -AO dominating North America's weather regimes. So far true arctic air has not been in the pattern but rather from very low heights. Week 2 and 3 shows the GOA beginning to switch from lower pressures to higher pressures. That means ridging, and ridging in Alaska means -EPO tank is a possibility.

Isn't that basically what happened last November? Boom, early December winter weather.

Sort of ... I recall we did have two Arctic fronts impact the state in November 2013. The first hit around mid month but was transient and temps quickly warmed back to above normal within a matter of days. Another one hit around/just before Thanksgiving and that impact lasted longer.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The large scale weather pattern across the globe will be changing the end of October into November. The JMA and other long range guidance which thus far has shown -AO dominating North America's weather regimes. So far true arctic air has not been in the pattern but rather from very low heights. Week 2 and 3 shows the GOA beginning to switch from lower pressures to higher pressures. That means ridging, and ridging in Alaska means -EPO tank is a possibility.

Isn't that basically what happened last November? Boom, early December winter weather.

Sort of ... I recall we did have two Arctic fronts impact the state in November 2013. The first hit around mid month but was transient and temps quickly warmed back to above normal within a matter of days. Another one hit around/just before Thanksgiving and that impact lasted longer.

Second was massive. Remember that well. Also the other which hit around Dec 10th which was one of the biggest of the season. Was in Austin that weekend and i dont think it climbed above the 20's

[JDawg512]

This little blurb just reinforces the multi-year rainfall event frequency trend I've mentioned numerous times in previous posts. Ugh!

Let's hope November will be the game-changer and start of a more frequent multi-month liquid gold trend.

After all, I did wash and wax my car today. So it should rain tomorrow.

Today's long-range forecast data indicates next week's dry pattern may unfortunately continue through the end of the month.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

It does look like (at least at this time) we are entering a multi-year El Niño. The 9 month outlook models have been consistent for more than a month now in keeping temp anomalies between +0.5 and +1 through July of next year.

This would be a good thing in that with a typical moderate to strong El Niño would hit a spike peak around December then drop off by late Spring which can typically lead to La Niña the next season or at least ENSO neutral.

While a muli-year pattern tends to be weak to moderate at the most, it doesn't spike then drop off like typical El Niños and can last 2 to 3 years. That would keep a generally wetter period for us and will be welcome relief.

[aggiecutter]

This would be my winter forecast if I were making one. This guy pretty much nails it, and explains why an Modoki El Nino leads to cold and snowy winters east of the Rockies. I also agree with him when he says the Austin area will not receive measurable snow for the 10th year in a row.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmuhLzIClDg

[Ntxw]

The latest OP Euro runs is now beginning to show what the ENS have been hinting. Tanking -EPO (2-3+ sigma) the last two week of October.

[Portastorm]

This would be my winter forecast if I were making one. This guy pretty much nails it, and explains why an Modoki El Nino leads to cold and snowy winters east of the Rockies. I also agree with him when he says the Austin area will not receive measurable snow for the 10th year in a row.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmuhLzIClDg

Wow, you're really going out on the limb there aggiecutter ... predicting no snow for Austin?

[srainhoutx]

I'm beginning to see to signs of a potential Omega Blocking regime near the end of October, first part of November. If that were to happen, our first Blue Norther may be on the horizon.

[aggiecutter]

This would be my winter forecast if I were making one. This guy pretty much nails it, and explains why an Modoki El Nino leads to cold and snowy winters east of the Rockies. I also agree with him when he says the Austin area will not receive measurable snow for the 10th year in a row.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmuhLzIClDg

Wow, you're really going out on the limb there aggiecutter ... predicting no snow for Austin?

I came to this conclusion based on the Weatherbell forecast for snow this winter. They predict the Austin area will receive 100% of their annual snowfall: 100% * 0 = 0.

[Ntxw]

Some explosive growth in Northern Hemisphere snowcover. It's up there with the big years 1976, 1977, 2002, 2009. I think I'm going to dub this year (or season rather) the year of snow .

[Ntxw]

Lets see if I can stir up some chatter during quiet times. The Alaskan ridge is coming. Very cold air is going to pool in Western Canada the days leading up to Halloween. Will it be unleashed? The nation is going to be influenced under ridging the next few weeks except for...Texas. That gulf of Alaska trough/storm will get flushed be forced underneath (southern jet) under the mid continent ridge. Clouds, rain, and a cutoff low is going to park itself over us. El Nino is putting a foot down.

[Ntxw]

For you folks interested in Hydrology for the state there is some good news.

September PDO rose to +1.08. That makes it 9 consecutive months in the positives. It is almost guaranteed that 2014 will finish as a +PDO year. If we are still in the -PDO regime and not in some kind of a transition or hiatus it would make this one of the lengthiest Calendar readings of +PDO for such a period.

This means for the time being, the -PDO regime has hit a wall. Whether it is temporary or permanent is anyone's guess but there is usually a lag effect. If this persists into spring of next year, the odds of seeing another La Nina diminishes which means it can't get worse and the streak of dry springs will likely end.

[TheProfessor]

The end of the 6z GFS run sure looks interesting, It has some very cold air pushing down the central U.S. Maybe a chance at are first freeze?

[TexasF6]

It WILL SNOW IN AUSTIN, TEXAS. I believe in you Porta!!! You ARE the Snowcaster!!! #Winter #WaitingonPortasWinterWxCast#AustinWillGetSnow #goawayaggie #Hookem

[JDawg512]

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw snow in some amount whether it's just a few flakes or something more substantial this winter in Austin. I'm not going out on a limb and say that it will snow but I don't think its a sure bet that it won't snow at all.

[weatherdude1108]

For you folks interested in Hydrology for the state there is some good news.

September PDO rose to +1.08. That makes it 9 consecutive months in the positives. It is almost guaranteed that 2014 will finish as a +PDO year. If we are still in the -PDO regime and not in some kind of a transition or hiatus it would make this one of the lengthiest Calendar readings of +PDO for such a period.

This means for the time being, the -PDO regime has hit a wall. Whether it is temporary or permanent is anyone's guess but there is usually a lag effect. If this persists into spring of next year, the odds of seeing another La Nina diminishes which means it can't get worse and the streak of dry springs will likely end.

Woohoo!! Looking forward to the possibilities!

[Portastorm]

It WILL SNOW IN AUSTIN, TEXAS. I believe in you Porta!!! You ARE the Snowcaster!!! #Winter #WaitingonPortasWinterWxCast#AustinWillGetSnow #goawayaggie #Hookem

The official forecast will be released tomorrow (October 20th). PWC mets have put down the Grey Goose long enough to finish their work and provide the information needed for tomorrow's press conference. That event will occur at 12 noon Central time.

[gboudx]

It WILL SNOW IN AUSTIN, TEXAS. I believe in you Porta!!! You ARE the Snowcaster!!! #Winter #WaitingonPortasWinterWxCast#AustinWillGetSnow #goawayaggie #Hookem

The official forecast will be released tomorrow (October 20th). PWC mets have put down the Grey Goose long enough to finish their work and provide the information needed for tomorrow's press conference. That event will occur at 12 noon Central time.

Being you're an Austin resident, I've wondered why you don't go with Deep Eddy instead.