ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

Wow just look at the satellite loops. It's clearly starting another Eye-wall Replacement. This TC just loves ERCs.

that new band is too far out to do anything until after this clears Bermuda

[ozonepete]

Wow just look at the satellite loops. It's clearly starting another Eye-wall Replacement. This TC just loves ERCs.

that new band is too far out to do anything until after this clears Bermuda

Respectfully disagree that it won't do anything at all. I've spent a lot of time watching ERCs and studying them. While yes, it couldn't likely complete another ERC with that new band, it has a really good shot at pulling it in by at least half the distance before it hits Bermuda. That would allow for maintenance or strengthening if the dry air and shear don't get in before then.

[ozonepete]

Wow just look at the satellite loops. It's clearly starting another Eye-wall Replacement. This TC just loves ERCs.

Why do these Eyewall Replacement Cycles keep occurring? This like the third or fourth one.

A really good question. Nobody still really knows for sure why some storms do more than others or do them more frequently. I've read a lot of the literature on them but have not seen a list of factors that favor them. I'll see if there's any new research out there.

[tolakram]

latest

[supercane4867]

Inner eyewall almost cleared

[CrazyC83]

At this rate, it may reach Bermuda within 12 to 18 hours. Definitely time is up to prepare there.

[brunota2003]

I realize I have mentioned this probably before, but out of curiosity does anyone know if The Weather Channel sent anyone to cover Gonzalo in Bermuda?

I haven't heard anything yet but I would bet my credentials that Cantore will be there unless he has some dire emergency. He always goes to the big ones. Always.

The airport closed at 9 pm. However, Mark Sudduth and Jim Edds are both there. Mark now "works" for TWC, and him and Jim will both be phoning into TWC.

[EquusStorm]

Sort of grasping at straws to find some sort of a record for Gonzalo's combination of intensity, location, and season, a quick cursory glance at the Atlantic record reveals that, possibly excepting Hazel in 1954, only one other category four cyclone has apparently existed further north than Gonzalo past the first half of October - 33.7*N for a 1939 hurricane, also on October 17th. Also, according to the best track, if Gonzalo persists as a category four for another advisory, it will beat the 1939 storm in becoming the latest category four storm we've ever had north of roughly 28.5*N by a few hours. Don't quote me on that though... I'm sure I missed something somewhere. A pretty arbitrary and marginal record, yes, but a record indeed.

Also I can't think of the name Gonzalo without being reminded of 'Gonchi' Gonzalo Rodriguez, the young and tragically fated CART driver from 1999...

[abajan]

One glimmer of hope is that the 11 PM projected track takes Gonzalo's eye directly over Bermuda instead of a few miles to its west. If this actually happens, Bermuda will be spared the most dangerous sector of the hurricane.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[beoumont]

UGH.

[bahamaswx]

Gonna pass to the right of Bermuda at this rate.

[abajan]

Gonna pass to the right of Bermuda at this rate.

That's my thinking as well. In fact I've felt this way about the track for the past couple of days but time will tell.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheAustinMan]

First visible image this morning.

[NDG]

Chasers that have flown into Bermuda to experience Gonzalo are going to be very lucky, looks like Gonzalo's eye will pass over right over the tiny Island, wow how unlucky can Bermuda be!!!

Its rain bands are about 3 hours from reaching the Island, landfall looks to be early afternoon, good for video recording the storm.

[Alyono]

preliminary aircraft data indicate ANOTHER eyewall replacement is underway.

If this only had 24 more hours before striking Bermuda, it would have been a repeat of Igor as the repetitive eyewall replacements would have weakened this significantly.

[abajan]

Eye clearly visible on Bermuda radar. It's about 200 miles away:

[jlauderdal]

Chasers that have flown into Bermuda to experience Gonzalo are going to be very lucky, looks like Gonzalo's eye will pass over right over the tiny Island, wow how unlucky can Bermuda be!!!

Its rain bands are about 3 hours from reaching the Island, landfall looks to be early afternoon, good for video recording the storm.

bermuda is a wealthy nation and the structures are well built but this will be a real test...have been there and I wouldnt expect a repeat of cabo although damage will be significant

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Looking at the http://portbermudawebcam.com/ webcam, winds are already fairly brisk.

[Blown Away]

Still a dangerous storm, but the satellite presentation not as good as a few hours ago IMO... If the eye goes over Bermuda it's like finding a needle in the Atlantic haystack...

[supercane4867]

URNT12 KWBC 171314
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014
A. 17/13:00:15Z
B. 29 deg 56 min N
066 deg 28 min W
C. 700 mb 2633 m
D. 103 kt
E. 285 deg 14 nm
F. 062 deg 93 kt
G. 307 deg 35 nm
H. 947 mb
I. 9 C / 3066 m
J. 16 C / 3048 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 1108A GONZALO OB 10
MAX FL WIND 121 KT 039 / 23 NM 11:41:49Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 095 / 5 KTS