ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

5pm unchanged, still 145mph/942mb. Yikes. Gonzalo may be a little stronger than Fabian when it comes in at this point...
http://i.imgur.com/eRAF3sv.jpg

Yeah, I had expected that it would have begun to weaken by now and that the MSW would have been down to 140 mph. Anyway, the experts are still predicting weakening before it reaches Bermuda. Nervous times for Bermudans for sure.

EDIT: Hey! I just checked that webcam again and it was panning to the right and left. It showed some animals grazing (not sure if they were sheep or cows).

[EquusStorm]

5pm unchanged, still 145mph/942mb. Yikes. Gonzalo may be a little stronger than Fabian when it comes in at this point...
http://i.imgur.com/eRAF3sv.jpg

Yeah, I had expected that it would have begun to weaken by now and that the MSW would have been down to 140 mph. Anyway, the experts are still predicting weakening before it reaches Bermuda. Nervous times for Bermudans for sure.

Mhm, I'm a bit surprised it's still at 145 at this update; it looks very impressive, but still, a little surprised it's not down a little. I think it will drop by the next update though, the shear is getting really close. I fear at this point even if the winds come down significantly, Bermuda might still be in the RFQ of a quickly accelerating storm, negating some of the weakening with a higher forward speed.

[Alyono]

Fabian was 100 kts, not 105 kts

[ozonepete]

5pm unchanged, still 145mph/942mb. Yikes. Gonzalo may be a little stronger than Fabian when it comes in at this point...
http://i.imgur.com/eRAF3sv.jpg

Yeah, I had expected that it would have begun to weaken by now and that the MSW would have been down to 140 mph. Anyway, the experts are still predicting weakening before it reaches Bermuda. Nervous times for Bermudans for sure.

Mhm, I'm a bit surprised it's still at 145 at this update; it looks very impressive, but still, a little surprised it's not down a little. I think it will drop by the next update though, the shear is getting really close. I fear at this point even if the winds come down significantly, Bermuda might still be in the RFD of a quickly accelerating storm, negating some of the weakening with a higher forward speed.

You mean RFQ or Right Front Quadrant, right? RFD is for Rear Flank Downdraft of a thunderstorm.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Gonzalo... what are you thinking? Please don't cause so much destruction! Don't be a Megatron or a Starscream! Yep, seriously. Who thinks this storm has retirement potential? This is an EXACT REPLICA OF FABIAN Just like WHAT ARE YOU DOING?

STAY SAFE, GUYS!

About this being an exact replica of FABIAN, FALSE. Fabian had a more extensive track, and was more like IGOR. When it was a category 4, it remained in that status consistently until it weakened unlike Gonzalo, which was more intermittent. Fabian was quite smaller perhaps

[NDG]

Been busy with work the last couple of days which back then I was thinking to myself there is no way models could get it right of Gonzalo tracking close to if not over Bermuda, how unluckly such a tiny Island in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean for the strongest Hurricane in 4 years to be experienced by them. Good luck to all of their residents riding the storm out and hopefully no loss of life happens.

[NDG]

The good news based on the recon reports so far is that Gonzalo's pressure has not gone down much further.

[abajan]

The good news based on the recon reports so far is that Gonzalo's pressure has not gone down much further.

I was hoping that it hadn't gone down at all. It's about time it starts to go up!

[cycloneye]

136kt flight level wind after first pass from NW to SE.

136 093 019 00

[Alyono]

it looks to have weakened based upon the prelim aircraft reports

[CrazyC83]

Gonzalo... what are you thinking? Please don't cause so much destruction! Don't be a Megatron or a Starscream! Yep, seriously. Who thinks this storm has retirement potential? This is an EXACT REPLICA OF FABIAN Just like WHAT ARE YOU DOING?

STAY SAFE, GUYS!

About this being an exact replica of FABIAN, FALSE. Fabian had a more extensive track, and was more like IGOR. When it was a category 4, it remained in that status consistently until it weakened unlike Gonzalo, which was more intermittent. Fabian was quite smaller perhaps

This is supposed to grow in size after the next ERC, which is likely to occur before landfall.

[StarmanHDB]

Question....

From my 9th floor perch on Federal Highway in Fort Lauderdale overlooking the ocean I am currently seeing a beautiful pinkish / reddish hue encompassing the entire eastern sky. I know Gonzalo is a pretty good distance out there (pretty much directly east of here), but is this amazing coloring the result of the western sunset reflecting off high altitude ice particles blown out from the storm's outflow? By the way, today's sky has been crystal clear blue the entire day and South Florida's relentless humidity has been suddenly tolerable.

Thanks!

[CrazyC83]

Question....

From my 9th floor perch on Federal Highway in Fort Lauderdale overlooking the ocean I am currently seeing a beautiful pinkish / reddish hue encompassing the entire eastern sky. I know Gonzalo is a pretty good distance out there (pretty much directly east of here), but is this amazing coloring the result of the western sunset reflecting off high altitude ice particles blown out from the storm's outflow? By the way, today's sky has been crystal clear blue the entire day and South Florida's relentless humidity has been suddenly tolerable.

Thanks!

Partially at least yes. I know after a tropical system passes the sky looks crystalline blue with the return flow in most cases. The day after Irene here was the most crystalline sky I had ever seen...

[NDG]

Question....

From my 9th floor perch on Federal Highway in Fort Lauderdale overlooking the ocean I am currently seeing a beautiful pinkish / reddish hue encompassing the entire eastern sky. I know Gonzalo is a pretty good distance out there (pretty much directly east of here), but is this amazing coloring the result of the western sunset reflecting off high altitude ice particles blown out from the storm's outflow? By the way, today's sky has been crystal clear blue the entire day and South Florida's relentless humidity has been suddenly tolerable.

Thanks!

Way too far away, IMO.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A blend of the available recon data so far (136kt flight-level, 102kt surface) supports an intensity of 110kt/125 mph. The plane has yet to fly through the strongest quadrant (the northeastern quadrant) yet, however.

[abajan]

Question....

From my 9th floor perch on Federal Highway in Fort Lauderdale overlooking the ocean I am currently seeing a beautiful pinkish / reddish hue encompassing the entire eastern sky. I know Gonzalo is a pretty good distance out there (pretty much directly east of here), but is this amazing coloring the result of the western sunset reflecting off high altitude ice particles blown out from the storm's outflow? By the way, today's sky has been crystal clear blue the entire day and South Florida's relentless humidity has been suddenly tolerable.

Thanks!

Methinks those effects are associated with the cold front rather than Gonzalo.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed 110 kt is what that data supports, although since the NE quad has not been sampled yet I would only knock it down to 120 kt for the intermediate advisory.

[NDG]

Interesting:

URNT12 KNHC 162317
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014
A. 16/22:50:50Z
B. 27 deg 14 min N
067 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 2586 m
D. 94 kt
E. 307 deg 19 nm
F. 059 deg 96 kt
G. 309 deg 22 nm
H. 943 mb
I. 11 C / 3018 m
J. 15 C / 3045 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO17-42
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1008A GONZALO OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 136 KT 132 / 25 NM 22:58:30Z
OUTER EYEWALL CLOSED
INNER EYEWALL OPEN SOUTH HALF
STRONGER FL AND SFC WINDS NOTED IN OUTER EYEWALL
;

[Hammy]

Interesting:
OUTER EYEWALL CLOSED
INNER EYEWALL OPEN SOUTH HALF
STRONGER FL AND SFC WINDS NOTED IN OUTER EYEWALL

This doesn't seem to be a good thing.

[CrazyC83]

Interesting:
OUTER EYEWALL CLOSED
INNER EYEWALL OPEN SOUTH HALF
STRONGER FL AND SFC WINDS NOTED IN OUTER EYEWALL

This doesn't seem to be a good thing.

That is all bad news. It means that Bermuda is a much larger target now, so it would have to miss by more than 50 miles to be not so bad.