Global model runs discussion

[chaser1]

So WXMAN, you're not necessarily suggesting that "all" the models are entirely out to lunch with regard to a deepening low in the BOC, but just suggesting that it will be baroclinic in nature? Of course transitional systems can occur, but i'm imagining there just wouldn't be adequate time for "Hannah" (there, I said it ) to be named as a truly tropical system?

Anyone remember what the strongest Gulf formed storm during Oct. or Nov. storm was (and not including storms coming from or originating from the Caribbean), that RESULTED IN A NORTHERN OR EASTERN GULF landfall???? (Best that I can remember, all seemed to have been sheared messes racing ahead of a front)

[Frank2]

Can't say I'm disappointed Wxman - the USA has enough irons in the fire right now without a hurricane landfall, that's for sure, but Henri was a rare system as mentioned in the Wiki article - its a good thing message boards didn't exist back then (just teletypes and answering machines : ), but as I recall Henri did cause some anxiety, because '79 was a disasterous season in the Caribbean due to David and Frederic...

[wxman57]

Euro gave up on the storm now. GFS is weaker. Both show strong cold air (and dry air) advection across the central Gulf (and heading for BoC) next week. I do think that the models have it all wrong, though the Euro now may be closest. A weak swirl on the end of the front in the BoC next week that moves inland into Mexico.

[SFLcane]

It's either at 30 north or nada development wise.

[blp]

I see the Euro continues with the idea with burying it into the Yucatan, but take a look at the conservative Ukmet which has a 998MB low moving into the Yucatan. Quite suprising from this model. If it can make it to the NW Carribean then watch out IMO.

[gatorcane]

Euro gave up on the storm now. GFS is weaker. Both show strong cold air (and dry air) advection across the central Gulf (and heading for BoC) next week. I do think that the models have it all wrong, though the Euro now may be closest. A weak swirl on the end of the front in the BoC next week that moves inland into Mexico.

Yeah I can see exactly what you are saying with this system but at the same time I am not sure that is what is going to happen just yet. One other possibility is that we get a named system in the BOC only for it to get buried back in Mexico or get sheared apart if it heads N or NE across the Gulf.

But the UKMET is very bullish and the past two GFS runs show a named system in the GOM with not enough cold air and dry air to prevent it from developing. I do see the NAVGEM completely dropped it. I think chances are we can get a named system out of this in the BOC but what happens after that in the long-range is not certain yet.

06Z GFS 168 hours shows a high-end tropical storm in the middle of the Gulf:

[gatorcane]

I see the Euro continues with the idea with burying it into the Yucatan, but take a look at the conservative Ukmet which has a 998MB low moving into the Yucatan. Quite suprising from this model. If it can make it to the NW Carribean then watch out IMO.

Look at the long-range GEM which brings it more ENE now similar to the UKMET with a going E in the BOC idea...GEM moves it just over the northern tip of the Yucatan and into South Florida as a strengthening high-end CAT 1. Good thing it is the GEM and my guess has the upper-level setup completely wrong as usual.

168 hours:


240 hours:

[wxman57]

Canadian is only predicting 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic next week? It has about a 99.9999% false alarm rate and should not be used for genesis. I still think we'll see a weak low on the tail end of the front in the BoC next week. It won't amount to much due to all the cool/dry air flowing into the BoC.

[psyclone]

A nice autumnal air mass is firmly entrenched here in central FL with dewpoints in the upper 50's to low 60's...feels decidedly non tropical out there. that giant sucking sound is the oceanic heat content getting sucked out of the gulf. I hope some really smart people fix the GFS...it has been an absolute embarrassment.

[Hammy]

Anyone remember what the strongest Gulf formed storm during Oct. or Nov. storm was (and not including storms coming from or originating from the Caribbean), that RESULTED IN A NORTHERN OR EASTERN GULF landfall???? (Best that I can remember, all seemed to have been sheared messes racing ahead of a front)

Josephine 1996 (70 mph)
Jerry 1989 (85 mph)
Juan 1985 (80 mph)
Love 1950 (75 mph)

everything at or close to hurricane intensity since 1950, so not a lot.

[blp]

12z Euro at 144hr still showing it. Also, 12z GFS has now shifted to entering the NW Carribean in 216hrs which to me is its best shot at developing into a stronger system.

EDIT: Forgot to mention the NAVGEM back on the development bandwagon but keeps it in the Western BOC through 180hrs.

[gatorcane]

That is some 500MB low the ECMWF is showing in the long-range parked right over the NE United States. That causes a cold front to move all the way into the BOC/Yucatan/NW Caribbean causing cold air and dry air intrustion and squashes any real development even in those usually favorable areas in October. Amazing. That would be something I would expect to see in November or December.

[chaser1]

Anyone remember what the strongest Gulf formed storm during Oct. or Nov. storm was (and not including storms coming from or originating from the Caribbean), that RESULTED IN A NORTHERN OR EASTERN GULF landfall???? (Best that I can remember, all seemed to have been sheared messes racing ahead of a front)

Josephine 1996 (70 mph)
Jerry 1989 (85 mph)
Juan 1985 (80 mph)
Love 1950 (75 mph)

everything at or close to hurricane intensity since 1950, so not a lot.

Thanks Hammy! Frankly I was surprised to see that many, and rather anticipated mostly "hybrids" or weak to moderate T.S.'s.

[chaser1]

That is some 500MB low the ECMWF is showing in the long-range parked right over the NE United States. That causes a cold front to move all the way into the BOC/Yucatan/NW Caribbean causing cold air and dry air intrustion and squashes any real development even in those usually favorable areas in October. Amazing. That would be something I would expect to see in November or December.

http://i61.tinypic.com/1qftd1.jpg

Gatorcane, that is an impressive low, but looking at the high pressure north of it and in control of the E. Conus, this appears to me as if the westerlies have retreated and this low were cut off from any Canadian vort max?? Am I right, or have I just not consumed enough caffeine today, LOL??

[HURRICANELONNY]

That is some 500MB low the ECMWF is showing in the long-range parked right over the NE United States. That causes a cold front to move all the way into the BOC/Yucatan/NW Caribbean causing cold air and dry air intrusion and squashes any real development even in those usually favorable areas in October. Amazing. That would be something I would expect to see in November or December.

http://i61.tinypic.com/1qftd1.jpg

If that comes in to fruition then whatever is in the BOC will go ene if something forms.

[blp]

The 12z UKmet now onboard with moving the Low into the NW Carribean.

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro and the GFS have a similar track but the Euro has just generally low pressure while the GFS has a near hurricane in the Florida straits so in closing this may be one of those systems that has to be watched on the Yucatan, Cuba and possibly the eastern GOM especially the Florida part

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[HURRICANELONNY]

As per Dr. Jeff Masters:

Moisture from 92E may move northwards across Mexico into the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by early next week, contributing to the formation of a tropical or sub-tropical depression there by Wednesday, as predicted by the GFS and European models.

[Hammy]

Euro showed stronger development and then dropped it, which once again is what it's done with everything else this season so far before showing up again. Given the cooler air in the region by that point though, it would not surprise me in the slightest to have a subtropical (rather than tropical) storm in the Gulf, and the last time this happened I believe was 1982 if you don't count the questionable systems that were never upgraded. Larry 2003 could be an analog as far as track.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2003H/LARRY/track.gif

[gatorcane]

Hammy quite possibly, all depends how deep this front next week makes it. But the overall model consensus now is something developing (maybe tropical or subtropical) in the BOC and moving slowly east towards the Yucatan with varying intensities. GFS and GEM turn it ENE with the GFS swiping South Florida and the keys and the GEM south of Cuba while the ECMWF shows a weak low in the NW Caribbean in the long-range. The idea of it getting pushed back south into Mexico is not being shown by the models in the latest runs.

Also I have opened up a thread for the BOC as it looks like moisture and some disturbed weather is gradually on the increase as the models have been suggesting for days now:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116867