ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JahJa]

With it now stronger than it was yesterday as a Cat.4 and as of 5am forecasted to come closer to Bermuda than it was at 11pm, you'd hope The Weather Channel sends someone there to cover this monster of a storm.

Well the word on the street is that Jim Cantore is here. The UK is also sending the royal navy to assist in any disaster relief so I am glad to see they are taking this seriously as well.

[caribepr]

Right now I'm praying that Gonzalo goes a bit more west. So far everyone has dodged a very dangerous bullet. I'm hoping that he slides more west and winds up between the Conus and Bermuda. Best case scenario.

Not everyone. The islands in the Caribbean chain that were slammed into by a Cat 1 hurricane that was forecast as a tropical storm have loss of life and major destruction and clean up ahead. Hopefully Bermuda will not suffer the same.

[supercane4867]

12z best track at 125kt

AL, 08, 2014101612, , BEST, 0, 256N, 687W, 125, 940, HU

[Alyono]

Cantore posted on his twitter last night that he was not going to Bermuda

also, I am seeing signs of another secondary wind max. Possible another eyewall replacement will occur prior to Bermuda

[Nimbus]

940 MB yipes.
Maybe Gonzalo will interact with that front and get some dry air entrained?
Stronger storm than forecast might track the core winds far enough west of Bermuda.

[abajan]

Hopefully, Gonzalo's eye passes to the east of Bermuda instead of to the west, as currently projected. That way they'll be on the weaker side of it. Also, I expect that even though it may strengthen some more (possibly up to 150 mph) during the next several hours, it will likely be on the lower end of Category 3 by the time it hits Bermuda. Of course, it should be borne in mind that a Category 3 system is still a major hurricane.

The above is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

live visible loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-68&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 130 kt based on that SFMR reading. Best looking storm since Igor for sure.

[gatorcane]

Wow CAT 4 in October in the SW Atlantic, definitely rare for sure as we may not even get that for years in the prime months of Aug-Sept. What a strange season!

[supercane4867]

Dropsonde measured a peak gust of 156kt above surface with MBL wind at 139kt

125kt-130kt seems about right

[tolakram]

13:00Z from ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/overview2/vis/

[CrazyC83]

With that dropsonde, even 135 kt may not be unreasonable.

Gonzalo is definitely making a run at Category 5...

[supercane4867]

Fresh microwave pass show signs of concentric eyewall developing

[Alyono]

the MBL wind seems to indicate winds of 115 to 120 kts

[Sanibel]

The pinhole eye was just a gear change. It didn't seem to make sense that Gonzalo showed a tiny eye but didn't have the usual intensity that accompanies it. A favorable airmass must have been drawn north in front of Gonzalo by the front.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

the MBL wind seems to indicate winds of 115 to 120 kts

It seemed like it was likely kicked out of the eyewall somewhat.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow..in the world if bad luck in the Atlantic basin the last 5 yrs...Bermuda wins hands down..I know they are built for these but I wish them luck and hope they stay safe..I smell a retirement coming for Gonzalo...

[supercane4867]

1315z

[CrazyC83]

If another ERC is imminent, does it have time to go through it and reintensify a third time before hitting cooler waters?

[MGC]

What an impressive hurricane. Didn't expect to wake up to a Cat-4. Lets see what happens with this new EWRC.....MGC